Intrinsic value of Cemtrex - CETX

Previous Close

$2.62

  Intrinsic Value

$4.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+70%

Previous close

$2.62

 
Intrinsic value

$4.46

 
Up/down potential

+70%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CETX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Cemtrex (CETX) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  121
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  379
  397
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  116
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
Operating income, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
EBITDA, $m
  8
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  70
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.017
  2.016
  2.000
  2.031
  2.015
  2.015
  2.029
  2.000
  2.027
  2.013
  2.012
  2.024
  2.011
  2.022
  2.021
  2.020
  2.010
  2.019
  2.018
  2.017
  2.008
  2.023
  2.022
  2.014
  2.020
  2.026
  2.018
  2.012
  2.017
  2.016
  2.015
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  26
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
Total debt, $m
  16
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Total equity, $m
  39
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  70
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  100
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  170
  179
  188
  197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.410
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -6
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  7
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  7
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cemtrex, Inc. is a diversified technology company, which provides solutions to industrial and manufacturing needs. The Company provides manufacturing services of electronic system assemblies; provides broad-based industrial services, instruments and emission monitors for industrial processes, and provides industrial air filtration and environmental control systems. It operates through two segments: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) segment and the Industrial Products & Services (IPS) segment. The Company, through its electronics manufacturing services (EMS) group, provides end to end electronic manufacturing services, which include product design and sustaining engineering services, printed circuit board assembly and production, cabling and wire harnessing, systems integration, testing services, and assembled electronic products. The Industrial Products & Services segment provides single-source services for in plant equipment erection, relocation and maintenance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cemtrex (CETX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 500%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 23.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Payout Ratio 25%

CETX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CETX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cemtrex. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cemtrex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CETX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CETX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cemtrex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cemtrex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CETX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CETX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Cemtrex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cemtrex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CETX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CETX are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cemtrex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CETX is equal to 19%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39 million for Cemtrex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.416 million for Cemtrex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cemtrex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cemtrex Appoints New Member to Its Board of Directors   [Feb-09-18 08:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cheap Stocks: The Challenge of Sorting Bargains From Junk   [Feb-06-18 06:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : December 29, 2017   [Dec-29-17 11:43AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : December 18, 2017   [Dec-18-17 03:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cemtrex Provides Update on the Launch Date of Smart Desk   [Dec-13-17 08:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Cemtrex Incs (CETX) PE Ratio A Signal To Buy For Investors?   [Dec-11-17 12:58PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : December 5, 2017   [Dec-05-17 12:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : October 17, 2017   [Oct-17-17 09:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cemtrex Named to Crains New York Business Fast 50 Companies   [Oct-10-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:11AM  Capital Cube]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Cemtrex, Inc./   [Sep-15-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : August 7, 2017   [Aug-07-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cemtrex Added to Russell Microcap Index   [Jun-26-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 02:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Small businesses in clean energy sector still hope for best   [Jun-07-17 03:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cemtrex Files Shelf Registration Statement   [Jun-05-17 04:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Cemtrex, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-11-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
Financial statements of CETX
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