Intrinsic value of CEVA - CEVA

Previous Close

$45.15

  Intrinsic Value

$57.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+27%

  Value-price divergence*

+122%

Previous close

$45.15

 
Intrinsic value

$57.15

 
Up/down potential

+27%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+122%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.67
  23.50
  21.65
  19.99
  18.49
  17.14
  15.92
  14.83
  13.85
  12.96
  12.17
  11.45
  10.81
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  73
  90
  110
  132
  156
  183
  212
  243
  277
  313
  351
  391
  433
  477
  524
  572
  622
  675
  730
  786
  845
  906
  970
  1,036
  1,105
  1,177
  1,251
  1,329
  1,409
  1,494
  1,581
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  40
  47
  55
  63
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  125
  138
  153
  167
  183
  199
  216
  233
  251
  270
  290
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  425
  450
  477
  505
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
Total operating expenses, $m
  58
  66
  73
  80
  89
  98
  108
  119
  131
  144
  157
  166
  180
  196
  211
  228
  245
  263
  281
  301
  321
  342
  363
  386
  409
  433
  459
  485
  512
  540
  570
Operating income, $m
  14
  25
  37
  51
  67
  84
  103
  124
  146
  169
  194
  225
  253
  282
  313
  344
  377
  412
  448
  485
  524
  565
  607
  650
  696
  743
  792
  844
  897
  953
  1,011
EBITDA, $m
  16
  30
  42
  57
  72
  90
  109
  130
  152
  175
  200
  227
  255
  284
  315
  347
  380
  415
  451
  489
  528
  568
  611
  655
  700
  748
  797
  849
  903
  959
  1,017
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  25
  37
  51
  66
  83
  102
  122
  143
  166
  191
  221
  248
  277
  307
  338
  370
  404
  439
  476
  514
  553
  594
  637
  682
  728
  776
  826
  878
  933
  990
Tax expense, $m
  3
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  45
  51
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  128
  139
  149
  160
  172
  184
  197
  210
  223
  237
  252
  267
Net income, $m
  13
  18
  27
  37
  48
  61
  74
  89
  105
  121
  139
  161
  181
  202
  224
  246
  270
  295
  321
  347
  375
  404
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
  603
  641
  681
  722

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  243
  143
  174
  209
  248
  290
  337
  387
  440
  497
  558
  621
  689
  759
  833
  909
  990
  1,073
  1,160
  1,250
  1,344
  1,441
  1,542
  1,648
  1,757
  1,871
  1,989
  2,112
  2,241
  2,374
  2,514
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  116
  143
  174
  209
  248
  290
  337
  387
  440
  497
  558
  621
  689
  759
  833
  909
  990
  1,073
  1,160
  1,250
  1,344
  1,441
  1,542
  1,648
  1,757
  1,871
  1,989
  2,112
  2,241
  2,374
  2,514
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.629
  0.629
  0.632
  0.632
  0.629
  0.631
  0.629
  0.628
  0.630
  0.630
  0.629
  0.630
  0.628
  0.628
  0.629
  0.629
  0.628
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
Average production assets, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  129
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
Working capital, $m
  122
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  16
  25
  35
  47
  59
  72
  86
  102
  118
  135
  153
  172
  191
  212
  233
  255
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  533
  567
  603
  640
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  38
  47
  56
  66
  78
  90
  103
  117
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  222
  243
  264
  286
  310
  334
  359
  385
  412
  440
  469
  499
  531
  564
  598
  634
  671
Total equity, $m
  212
  105
  128
  153
  182
  213
  247
  283
  323
  364
  409
  456
  505
  556
  610
  667
  725
  787
  850
  916
  985
  1,056
  1,131
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,458
  1,548
  1,642
  1,740
  1,843
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  243
  143
  175
  209
  248
  291
  337
  386
  440
  497
  558
  622
  689
  759
  832
  910
  989
  1,073
  1,160
  1,250
  1,344
  1,441
  1,543
  1,648
  1,757
  1,870
  1,989
  2,112
  2,240
  2,374
  2,514
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.070
  0.120
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  18
  27
  37
  48
  61
  74
  89
  105
  121
  139
  161
  181
  202
  224
  246
  270
  295
  321
  347
  375
  404
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
  603
  641
  681
  722
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  23
  32
  42
  54
  66
  80
  95
  110
  127
  145
  163
  183
  204
  226
  249
  273
  298
  323
  350
  378
  407
  438
  469
  502
  536
  571
  608
  647
  687
  729
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  24
  34
  44
  55
  68
  82
  97
  113
  130
  148
  166
  186
  207
  229
  252
  276
  301
  327
  354
  382
  412
  442
  474
  507
  541
  577
  614
  652
  693
  735
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  22
  31
  41
  52
  64
  78
  92
  108
  125
  142
  160
  180
  200
  222
  245
  268
  293
  318
  345
  373
  402
  431
  463
  495
  529
  564
  600
  638
  678
  719
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  9
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  31
  39
  50
  62
  76
  90
  106
  122
  140
  159
  177
  198
  219
  242
  265
  290
  315
  342
  369
  398
  428
  458
  491
  524
  559
  595
  633
  672
  713
  756
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  138
  17
  25
  34
  45
  56
  69
  83
  98
  114
  130
  148
  168
  188
  209
  231
  254
  278
  303
  329
  356
  384
  414
  444
  476
  508
  543
  578
  615
  654
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  133
  15
  22
  28
  35
  41
  47
  52
  56
  60
  62
  63
  64
  63
  61
  59
  55
  51
  47
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5

CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) is a licensor of signal processing intellectual property (IP). The Company partners with semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to create connected devices for a range of end markets, including mobile, consumer, automotive, industrial and Internet of things (IoT). The Company operates in the segment of licensing of intellectual property to semiconductor companies and electronic equipment manufacturers. CEVA addresses the requirements of the mobile, consumer, automotive, industrial and IoT markets by designing and licensing a range of application-specific signal processing platforms, which enable the design of solutions for developing a range of applications, including communications and connectivity, audio and voice, imaging and vision, and storage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CEVA (CEVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 73.9
Price to Sales 13.2
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 68.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 80
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 20.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 17.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
Payout Ratio 0%

CEVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $73 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CEVA. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CEVA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CEVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CEVA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CEVA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $31 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CEVA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CEVA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEVA are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 27.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CEVA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEVA is equal to -6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $212 million for CEVA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.753 million for CEVA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CEVA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CEVA, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CEVA) : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 11:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:02AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 08:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CEVA, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-23-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CEVA, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CEVA) : August 17, 2017   [Aug-16-17 08:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ceva tops Street 2Q forecasts   [02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Imagination: graphic warning   [Jul-04-17 11:50AM  Financial Times]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Who Will Buy Imagination Technologies plc's MIPS Tech?   [May-22-17 11:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Composite Rating For Ceva Jumps To 96   [May-09-17 10:51AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ceva meets 1Q profit forecasts   [09:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : February 6, 2017   [Feb-06-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SRT Group License CEVA Signal Processing IP   [Dec-13-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CEVA Leads the Bluetooth® 5 IP Wave   [Dec-07-16 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Have Hedge Funds Found A Hidden Gem in CEVA, Inc. (CEVA)?   [Dec-02-16 12:27PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ceva Jumps On Q3 Earnings Beat   [10:39AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of CEVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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