Intrinsic value of CEVA - CEVA

Previous Close

$32.05

  Intrinsic Value

$9.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$32.05

 
Intrinsic value

$9.19

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.50
  18.95
  17.56
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.01
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  106
  126
  148
  172
  199
  227
  257
  289
  322
  358
  395
  434
  475
  517
  561
  607
  655
  705
  756
  810
  866
  924
  984
  1,047
  1,112
  1,180
  1,251
  1,325
  1,402
  1,482
Variable operating expenses, $m
  84
  99
  115
  133
  153
  174
  196
  220
  245
  271
  294
  323
  354
  385
  418
  453
  488
  525
  564
  604
  645
  689
  734
  780
  829
  880
  932
  987
  1,045
  1,105
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  84
  99
  115
  133
  153
  174
  196
  220
  245
  271
  294
  323
  354
  385
  418
  453
  488
  525
  564
  604
  645
  689
  734
  780
  829
  880
  932
  987
  1,045
  1,105
Operating income, $m
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  101
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  377
EBITDA, $m
  34
  40
  47
  55
  63
  72
  81
  92
  102
  113
  125
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  240
  257
  275
  293
  312
  332
  353
  374
  397
  420
  445
  470
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  82
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
Tax expense, $m
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
Net income, $m
  16
  20
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  60
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  181
  193
  204
  217
  229
  242
  256

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  195
  232
  273
  317
  365
  417
  472
  531
  592
  658
  726
  798
  872
  950
  1,032
  1,116
  1,204
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,591
  1,698
  1,809
  1,924
  2,044
  2,169
  2,299
  2,435
  2,576
  2,724
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  195
  232
  273
  317
  365
  417
  472
  531
  592
  658
  726
  798
  872
  950
  1,032
  1,116
  1,204
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,591
  1,698
  1,809
  1,924
  2,044
  2,169
  2,299
  2,435
  2,576
  2,724
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.544
  0.543
  0.542
  0.543
  0.545
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.545
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
Average production assets, $m
  66
  79
  93
  108
  125
  142
  161
  181
  202
  224
  248
  272
  298
  324
  352
  381
  411
  442
  474
  508
  543
  579
  617
  656
  697
  740
  784
  831
  879
  929
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Total debt, $m
  7
  15
  23
  32
  41
  52
  63
  74
  87
  100
  113
  128
  143
  158
  175
  191
  209
  227
  246
  266
  286
  308
  330
  353
  377
  402
  428
  455
  483
  513
Total liabilities, $m
  39
  46
  55
  63
  73
  83
  94
  106
  118
  132
  145
  160
  174
  190
  206
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  318
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
  460
  487
  515
  545
Total equity, $m
  156
  185
  218
  254
  292
  333
  378
  424
  474
  526
  581
  638
  698
  760
  825
  893
  963
  1,036
  1,112
  1,191
  1,273
  1,358
  1,447
  1,539
  1,635
  1,735
  1,839
  1,948
  2,061
  2,179
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  195
  231
  273
  317
  365
  416
  472
  530
  592
  658
  726
  798
  872
  950
  1,031
  1,116
  1,204
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,591
  1,698
  1,809
  1,924
  2,044
  2,169
  2,299
  2,435
  2,576
  2,724
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  20
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  60
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  181
  193
  204
  217
  229
  242
  256
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  32
  38
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  78
  87
  94
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  28
  32
  38
  43
  50
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  94
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  233
  247
  263
  279
  295
  313
  331
  350
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  10
  9
  8
  6
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  17
  17
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  52
  58
  62
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  130
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
Cash available for distribution, $m
  118
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  2
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  123
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  113
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.2
  95.1
  93.5
  92.3
  91.5
  91.1
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9
  90.9

CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) is a licensor of signal processing intellectual property (IP). The Company partners with semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to create connected devices for a range of end markets, including mobile, consumer, automotive, industrial and Internet of things (IoT). The Company operates in the segment of licensing of intellectual property to semiconductor companies and electronic equipment manufacturers. CEVA addresses the requirements of the mobile, consumer, automotive, industrial and IoT markets by designing and licensing a range of application-specific signal processing platforms, which enable the design of solutions for developing a range of applications, including communications and connectivity, audio and voice, imaging and vision, and storage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CEVA (CEVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 52.4
Price to Sales 9.3
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 48.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 56.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 20.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 17.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
Payout Ratio 0%

CEVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $88 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CEVA. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CEVA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CEVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CEVA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CEVA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CEVA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CEVA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEVA stock is equal to 9.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEVA are equal to 62.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CEVA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEVA is equal to -0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $245 million for CEVA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22 million for CEVA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CEVA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy CEVA Inc (NASDAQ:CEVA)?   [Jun-24-18 10:30AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ceva: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ceva Logistics: books oversubscribed   [Apr-26-18 12:05PM  Reuters]
▶ Ceva plans May 4 flotation as bookbuild set wide   [Apr-20-18 08:18AM  Reuters]
▶ Chip Stocks That Will Thrive on the AI Boom   [Apr-06-18 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ CEVA and Nokia Collaborate for 4.9G and 5G Technologies   [Mar-01-18 02:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ceva Logistics aims for pre-summer IPO -sources   [Feb-26-18 09:07AM  Reuters]
▶ CEVA Announces Industry's First 802.11ax Wi-Fi IPs   [Feb-20-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ceva posts 4Q profit   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ CEVA, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : December 25, 2017   [Dec-25-17 11:45AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is This Apple Inc.'s Secret New Chip Supplier?   [Dec-22-17 08:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Top 10 Logistics Companies In The World In 2017   [Dec-13-17 10:20AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : December 12, 2017   [Dec-12-17 12:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ These 9 Tech Stocks Could Outshine the FAANGs   [Nov-10-17 12:00PM  Investopedia]
▶ CEVA, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-08-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ceva tops Street 3Q forecasts   [07:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ CEVA INC to Host Earnings Call   [06:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ CEVA, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CEVA) : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 11:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:02AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 08:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CEVA, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-23-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CEVA, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CEVA) : August 17, 2017   [Aug-16-17 08:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ceva tops Street 2Q forecasts   [02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Imagination: graphic warning   [Jul-04-17 11:50AM  Financial Times]
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