Intrinsic value of CF Industries Holdings - CF

Previous Close

$52.50

  Intrinsic Value

$7.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$52.50

 
Intrinsic value

$7.04

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
Revenue, $m
  4,778
  5,477
  6,226
  7,023
  7,867
  8,758
  9,694
  10,674
  11,700
  12,770
  13,885
  15,045
  16,252
  17,507
  18,810
  20,165
  21,573
  23,037
  24,559
  26,142
  27,789
  29,504
  31,290
  33,151
  35,092
  37,116
  39,228
  41,434
  43,737
  46,145
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,378
  4,984
  5,633
  6,323
  7,055
  7,826
  8,637
  9,487
  10,376
  11,303
  12,032
  13,038
  14,084
  15,171
  16,301
  17,475
  18,695
  19,964
  21,283
  22,654
  24,082
  25,568
  27,116
  28,728
  30,410
  32,164
  33,995
  35,906
  37,902
  39,989
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,378
  4,984
  5,633
  6,323
  7,055
  7,826
  8,637
  9,487
  10,376
  11,303
  12,032
  13,038
  14,084
  15,171
  16,301
  17,475
  18,695
  19,964
  21,283
  22,654
  24,082
  25,568
  27,116
  28,728
  30,410
  32,164
  33,995
  35,906
  37,902
  39,989
Operating income, $m
  400
  494
  594
  700
  812
  931
  1,056
  1,187
  1,324
  1,466
  1,852
  2,007
  2,168
  2,336
  2,509
  2,690
  2,878
  3,073
  3,276
  3,488
  3,707
  3,936
  4,174
  4,423
  4,682
  4,952
  5,233
  5,528
  5,835
  6,156
EBITDA, $m
  1,559
  1,787
  2,031
  2,291
  2,567
  2,857
  3,163
  3,483
  3,817
  4,166
  4,530
  4,909
  5,302
  5,712
  6,137
  6,579
  7,039
  7,516
  8,013
  8,529
  9,067
  9,626
  10,209
  10,816
  11,449
  12,110
  12,799
  13,518
  14,270
  15,055
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  282
  374
  474
  581
  695
  817
  944
  1,078
  1,219
  1,366
  1,519
  1,679
  1,846
  2,019
  2,199
  2,386
  2,580
  2,782
  2,992
  3,210
  3,437
  3,673
  3,919
  4,175
  4,442
  4,720
  5,010
  5,313
  5,630
  5,960
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  120
  120
  119
  117
  115
  112
  109
  105
  100
  333
  328
  322
  317
  311
  305
  298
  292
  285
  278
  270
  263
  255
  248
  240
  231
  223
  214
  205
  196
Tax expense, $m
  32
  32
  32
  32
  32
  31
  30
  29
  28
  27
  90
  89
  87
  86
  84
  82
  81
  79
  77
  75
  73
  71
  69
  67
  65
  62
  60
  58
  55
  53
Net income, $m
  87
  88
  87
  87
  85
  84
  82
  79
  76
  73
  243
  239
  235
  231
  227
  222
  218
  213
  208
  203
  197
  192
  186
  181
  175
  169
  163
  156
  150
  143

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,266
  17,500
  19,892
  22,438
  25,135
  27,980
  30,970
  34,103
  37,379
  40,798
  44,360
  48,067
  51,923
  55,932
  60,097
  64,426
  68,925
  73,601
  78,463
  83,520
  88,783
  94,261
  99,968
  105,914
  112,114
  118,581
  125,330
  132,376
  139,736
  147,427
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,266
  17,500
  19,892
  22,438
  25,135
  27,980
  30,970
  34,103
  37,379
  40,798
  44,360
  48,067
  51,923
  55,932
  60,097
  64,426
  68,925
  73,601
  78,463
  83,520
  88,783
  94,261
  99,968
  105,914
  112,114
  118,581
  125,330
  132,376
  139,736
  147,427
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
Average production assets, $m
  12,257
  14,050
  15,970
  18,014
  20,179
  22,463
  24,864
  27,380
  30,010
  32,754
  35,614
  38,591
  41,686
  44,904
  48,249
  51,724
  55,336
  59,090
  62,994
  67,054
  71,279
  75,677
  80,259
  85,033
  90,010
  95,202
  100,620
  106,277
  112,186
  118,361
Working capital, $m
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  116
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  195
  210
  226
  242
  259
  276
  295
  314
  333
  354
  375
  398
  421
  445
  471
  497
  525
  554
Total debt, $m
  6,227
  7,898
  9,687
  11,592
  13,609
  15,737
  17,973
  20,317
  22,768
  25,325
  27,989
  30,762
  33,647
  36,645
  39,761
  42,999
  46,364
  49,862
  53,498
  57,281
  61,218
  65,316
  69,584
  74,032
  78,669
  83,506
  88,555
  93,825
  99,330
  105,083
Total liabilities, $m
  11,419
  13,090
  14,879
  16,784
  18,801
  20,929
  23,165
  25,509
  27,960
  30,517
  33,181
  35,954
  38,839
  41,837
  44,953
  48,191
  51,556
  55,054
  58,690
  62,473
  66,410
  70,508
  74,776
  79,224
  83,861
  88,698
  93,747
  99,017
  104,522
  110,275
Total equity, $m
  3,847
  4,410
  5,013
  5,654
  6,334
  7,051
  7,804
  8,594
  9,420
  10,281
  11,179
  12,113
  13,085
  14,095
  15,145
  16,235
  17,369
  18,547
  19,773
  21,047
  22,373
  23,754
  25,192
  26,690
  28,253
  29,882
  31,583
  33,359
  35,213
  37,152
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,266
  17,500
  19,892
  22,438
  25,135
  27,980
  30,969
  34,103
  37,380
  40,798
  44,360
  48,067
  51,924
  55,932
  60,098
  64,426
  68,925
  73,601
  78,463
  83,520
  88,783
  94,262
  99,968
  105,914
  112,114
  118,580
  125,330
  132,376
  139,735
  147,427
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.620
  1.790
  1.930
  2.050
  2.150
  2.230
  2.300
  2.360
  2.420
  2.460
  2.500
  2.540
  2.570
  2.600
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
  2.710
  2.720
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
  2.800
  2.810
  2.820
  2.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  88
  87
  87
  85
  84
  82
  79
  76
  73
  243
  239
  235
  231
  227
  222
  218
  213
  208
  203
  197
  192
  186
  181
  175
  169
  163
  156
  150
  143
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,159
  1,293
  1,438
  1,592
  1,754
  1,926
  2,107
  2,296
  2,493
  2,700
  2,678
  2,902
  3,134
  3,376
  3,628
  3,889
  4,161
  4,443
  4,736
  5,042
  5,359
  5,690
  6,034
  6,393
  6,768
  7,158
  7,565
  7,991
  8,435
  8,899
Funds from operations, $m
  1,245
  1,381
  1,525
  1,678
  1,840
  2,010
  2,188
  2,375
  2,570
  2,773
  2,921
  3,141
  3,370
  3,607
  3,855
  4,111
  4,378
  4,656
  4,944
  5,244
  5,557
  5,882
  6,221
  6,574
  6,943
  7,327
  7,728
  8,147
  8,585
  9,043
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  1,238
  1,373
  1,516
  1,669
  1,830
  1,999
  2,177
  2,363
  2,558
  2,760
  2,907
  3,127
  3,355
  3,592
  3,839
  4,095
  4,361
  4,638
  4,926
  5,225
  5,537
  5,861
  6,200
  6,552
  6,919
  7,303
  7,703
  8,121
  8,557
  9,014
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -796
  -922
  -1,056
  -1,201
  -1,354
  -1,517
  -1,689
  -1,869
  -2,059
  -2,256
  -2,463
  -2,678
  -2,902
  -3,134
  -3,376
  -3,628
  -3,889
  -4,161
  -4,443
  -4,736
  -5,042
  -5,359
  -5,690
  -6,034
  -6,393
  -6,768
  -7,158
  -7,565
  -7,991
  -8,435
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,664
  -1,793
  -1,920
  -2,044
  -2,165
  -2,284
  -2,401
  -2,516
  -2,630
  -2,745
  -2,860
  -2,977
  -3,096
  -3,218
  -3,344
  -3,475
  -3,612
  -3,754
  -3,904
  -4,060
  -4,225
  -4,398
  -4,581
  -4,774
  -4,977
  -5,192
  -5,418
  -5,657
  -5,909
  -6,175
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,460
  -2,715
  -2,976
  -3,245
  -3,519
  -3,801
  -4,090
  -4,385
  -4,689
  -5,001
  -5,323
  -5,655
  -5,998
  -6,352
  -6,720
  -7,103
  -7,501
  -7,915
  -8,347
  -8,796
  -9,267
  -9,757
  -10,271
  -10,808
  -11,370
  -11,960
  -12,576
  -13,222
  -13,900
  -14,610
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,223
  -1,342
  -1,460
  -1,576
  -1,690
  -1,802
  -1,912
  -2,022
  -2,131
  -2,241
  -2,415
  -2,527
  -2,642
  -2,760
  -2,882
  -3,008
  -3,139
  -3,277
  -3,420
  -3,571
  -3,730
  -3,896
  -4,072
  -4,257
  -4,451
  -4,657
  -4,873
  -5,102
  -5,342
  -5,596
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,535
  1,671
  1,789
  1,905
  2,017
  2,128
  2,237
  2,344
  2,450
  2,557
  2,664
  2,773
  2,884
  2,998
  3,116
  3,238
  3,365
  3,498
  3,637
  3,783
  3,936
  4,098
  4,268
  4,448
  4,637
  4,837
  5,048
  5,271
  5,505
  5,753
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  436
  475
  515
  555
  594
  633
  672
  710
  749
  788
  655
  695
  736
  779
  823
  869
  916
  966
  1,017
  1,072
  1,129
  1,189
  1,252
  1,318
  1,387
  1,461
  1,538
  1,619
  1,705
  1,795
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,971
  2,146
  2,304
  2,460
  2,611
  2,761
  2,909
  3,054
  3,199
  3,345
  3,319
  3,468
  3,620
  3,777
  3,939
  4,107
  4,281
  4,464
  4,654
  4,855
  5,065
  5,287
  5,520
  5,766
  6,024
  6,298
  6,586
  6,890
  7,210
  7,548
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  749
  804
  844
  883
  922
  959
  996
  1,032
  1,068
  1,105
  904
  941
  978
  1,017
  1,057
  1,098
  1,142
  1,187
  1,234
  1,283
  1,335
  1,390
  1,448
  1,509
  1,573
  1,641
  1,713
  1,788
  1,868
  1,952
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -523
  -563
  -603
  -642
  -680
  -717
  -753
  -790
  -826
  -861
  -898
  -934
  -972
  -1,010
  -1,050
  -1,091
  -1,134
  -1,178
  -1,225
  -1,274
  -1,326
  -1,381
  -1,438
  -1,498
  -1,562
  -1,630
  -1,701
  -1,776
  -1,855
  -1,938
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  255
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  481
  241
  241
  242
  242
  242
  242
  243
  243
  243
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Discount rate, %
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  454
  214
  200
  186
  172
  158
  144
  130
  116
  103
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.3
  93.0
  89.9
  87.1
  84.5
  82.1
  79.9
  77.8
  75.9
  74.1
  72.7
  71.4
  70.2
  69.0
  67.8
  66.7
  65.6
  64.6
  63.5
  62.6
  61.6
  60.6
  59.7
  58.8
  58.0
  57.1
  56.2
  55.4
  54.6
  53.8

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizer, and other nitrogen products. The Company's nitrogen fertilizer products are ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN). Its other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to the Company's industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium or NPKs). The Company's segments include ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN and other. The Company's ammonia segment produces anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which is concentrated nitrogen fertilizer as it contains 82% nitrogen. The granular urea segment produces granular urea, which contains 46% nitrogen. The UAN segment produces urea ammonium nitrate solution. The Other segment includes DEF, urea liquor, nitric acid and NPKs. The Company's primary nitrogen fertilizer products are ammonia, granular urea, UAN and AN.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CF Industries Holdings (CF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -44.2
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 172.6%
Total Debt to Equity 172.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital -3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity -7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Operating Margin -0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Effective Tax Rate 30.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio -101.1%

CF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4130 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CF Industries Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CF Industries Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for CF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CF Industries Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CF Industries Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for CF Industries Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CF Industries Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CF are equal to 256.5%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CF Industries Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CF is equal to 1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3579 million for CF Industries Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 233.469 million for CF Industries Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CF Industries Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.3 billion.

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