Intrinsic value of Colfax Corporation - CFX

Previous Close

$26.38

  Intrinsic Value

$104.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+297%

Previous close

$26.38

 
Intrinsic value

$104.76

 
Up/down potential

+297%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CFX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.42
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.28
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
Revenue, $m
  4,133
  4,626
  5,146
  5,692
  6,264
  6,862
  7,486
  8,136
  8,812
  9,516
  10,247
  11,007
  11,796
  12,617
  13,470
  14,357
  15,280
  16,240
  17,240
  18,281
  19,366
  20,498
  21,678
  22,910
  24,196
  25,540
  26,944
  28,412
  29,947
  31,553
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,273
  2,501
  2,742
  2,995
  3,260
  3,537
  3,826
  4,127
  4,440
  4,766
  4,745
  5,097
  5,463
  5,843
  6,238
  6,649
  7,076
  7,521
  7,984
  8,466
  8,969
  9,493
  10,039
  10,610
  11,205
  11,828
  12,478
  13,158
  13,868
  14,612
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,434
  1,465
  1,498
  1,531
  1,564
  1,599
  1,634
  1,670
  1,707
  1,744
  1,782
  1,822
  1,862
  1,903
  1,945
  1,987
  2,031
  2,076
  2,121
  2,168
  2,216
  2,265
  2,314
  2,365
  2,417
  2,470
  2,525
  2,580
  2,637
  2,695
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,707
  3,966
  4,240
  4,526
  4,824
  5,136
  5,460
  5,797
  6,147
  6,510
  6,527
  6,919
  7,325
  7,746
  8,183
  8,636
  9,107
  9,597
  10,105
  10,634
  11,185
  11,758
  12,353
  12,975
  13,622
  14,298
  15,003
  15,738
  16,505
  17,307
Operating income, $m
  426
  659
  906
  1,166
  1,440
  1,726
  2,026
  2,339
  2,666
  3,006
  3,719
  4,088
  4,472
  4,871
  5,288
  5,721
  6,173
  6,644
  7,135
  7,647
  8,182
  8,741
  9,325
  9,935
  10,574
  11,242
  11,941
  12,674
  13,441
  14,246
EBITDA, $m
  875
  1,119
  1,377
  1,650
  1,936
  2,235
  2,549
  2,876
  3,217
  3,573
  3,943
  4,328
  4,729
  5,147
  5,582
  6,035
  6,506
  6,998
  7,511
  8,046
  8,605
  9,188
  9,798
  10,435
  11,102
  11,800
  12,530
  13,294
  14,095
  14,934
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  65
  88
  112
  138
  164
  192
  222
  252
  284
  318
  352
  388
  426
  464
  505
  547
  590
  635
  683
  732
  783
  836
  892
  950
  1,010
  1,074
  1,140
  1,209
  1,281
  1,356
Earnings before tax, $m
  361
  571
  794
  1,029
  1,275
  1,534
  1,804
  2,087
  2,381
  2,688
  3,367
  3,700
  4,046
  4,407
  4,783
  5,175
  5,583
  6,008
  6,452
  6,915
  7,399
  7,905
  8,433
  8,985
  9,563
  10,168
  10,802
  11,465
  12,161
  12,889
Tax expense, $m
  98
  154
  214
  278
  344
  414
  487
  563
  643
  726
  909
  999
  1,092
  1,190
  1,291
  1,397
  1,507
  1,622
  1,742
  1,867
  1,998
  2,134
  2,277
  2,426
  2,582
  2,745
  2,916
  3,096
  3,283
  3,480
Net income, $m
  264
  417
  580
  751
  931
  1,120
  1,317
  1,523
  1,738
  1,962
  2,458
  2,701
  2,954
  3,217
  3,492
  3,777
  4,075
  4,386
  4,710
  5,048
  5,401
  5,770
  6,156
  6,559
  6,981
  7,423
  7,885
  8,370
  8,877
  9,409

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,446
  8,335
  9,271
  10,255
  11,286
  12,364
  13,488
  14,659
  15,878
  17,145
  18,463
  19,832
  21,255
  22,734
  24,271
  25,869
  27,532
  29,262
  31,063
  32,939
  34,894
  36,933
  39,060
  41,279
  43,597
  46,018
  48,548
  51,192
  53,958
  56,852
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,446
  8,335
  9,271
  10,255
  11,286
  12,364
  13,488
  14,659
  15,878
  17,145
  18,463
  19,832
  21,255
  22,734
  24,271
  25,869
  27,532
  29,262
  31,063
  32,939
  34,894
  36,933
  39,060
  41,279
  43,597
  46,018
  48,548
  51,192
  53,958
  56,852
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
Average production assets, $m
  2,608
  2,919
  3,247
  3,591
  3,952
  4,330
  4,723
  5,134
  5,560
  6,004
  6,466
  6,945
  7,444
  7,961
  8,500
  9,059
  9,642
  10,248
  10,878
  11,535
  12,220
  12,934
  13,679
  14,456
  15,268
  16,116
  17,002
  17,928
  18,896
  19,910
Working capital, $m
  587
  657
  731
  808
  889
  974
  1,063
  1,155
  1,251
  1,351
  1,455
  1,563
  1,675
  1,792
  1,913
  2,039
  2,170
  2,306
  2,448
  2,596
  2,750
  2,911
  3,078
  3,253
  3,436
  3,627
  3,826
  4,034
  4,252
  4,481
Total debt, $m
  1,625
  2,074
  2,547
  3,044
  3,564
  4,108
  4,676
  5,267
  5,883
  6,523
  7,188
  7,880
  8,598
  9,345
  10,121
  10,928
  11,768
  12,642
  13,551
  14,499
  15,486
  16,516
  17,590
  18,711
  19,881
  21,104
  22,381
  23,717
  25,114
  26,575
Total liabilities, $m
  3,760
  4,209
  4,682
  5,179
  5,699
  6,244
  6,811
  7,403
  8,018
  8,658
  9,324
  10,015
  10,734
  11,480
  12,257
  13,064
  13,903
  14,777
  15,687
  16,634
  17,622
  18,651
  19,725
  20,846
  22,016
  23,239
  24,517
  25,852
  27,249
  28,710
Total equity, $m
  3,686
  4,126
  4,589
  5,076
  5,587
  6,120
  6,676
  7,256
  7,859
  8,487
  9,139
  9,817
  10,521
  11,253
  12,014
  12,805
  13,628
  14,485
  15,376
  16,305
  17,273
  18,282
  19,335
  20,433
  21,581
  22,779
  24,031
  25,340
  26,709
  28,142
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,446
  8,335
  9,271
  10,255
  11,286
  12,364
  13,487
  14,659
  15,877
  17,145
  18,463
  19,832
  21,255
  22,733
  24,271
  25,869
  27,531
  29,262
  31,063
  32,939
  34,895
  36,933
  39,060
  41,279
  43,597
  46,018
  48,548
  51,192
  53,958
  56,852
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.440
  0.500
  0.550
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  264
  417
  580
  751
  931
  1,120
  1,317
  1,523
  1,738
  1,962
  2,458
  2,701
  2,954
  3,217
  3,492
  3,777
  4,075
  4,386
  4,710
  5,048
  5,401
  5,770
  6,156
  6,559
  6,981
  7,423
  7,885
  8,370
  8,877
  9,409
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  449
  460
  471
  483
  496
  509
  522
  537
  551
  567
  224
  240
  258
  275
  294
  313
  334
  355
  376
  399
  423
  448
  473
  500
  528
  558
  588
  620
  654
  689
Funds from operations, $m
  713
  877
  1,051
  1,234
  1,427
  1,629
  1,840
  2,060
  2,290
  2,529
  2,681
  2,941
  3,211
  3,493
  3,786
  4,091
  4,409
  4,741
  5,086
  5,447
  5,824
  6,218
  6,629
  7,060
  7,510
  7,981
  8,474
  8,990
  9,531
  10,098
Change in working capital, $m
  66
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
Cash from operations, $m
  647
  807
  977
  1,157
  1,346
  1,544
  1,751
  1,968
  2,194
  2,429
  2,578
  2,833
  3,099
  3,376
  3,665
  3,965
  4,278
  4,604
  4,944
  5,299
  5,670
  6,057
  6,462
  6,885
  7,327
  7,790
  8,274
  8,782
  9,313
  9,870
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -124
  -137
  -150
  -163
  -178
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -258
  -275
  -294
  -313
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -399
  -423
  -448
  -473
  -500
  -528
  -558
  -588
  -620
  -654
New CAPEX, $m
  -293
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -461
  -480
  -498
  -518
  -538
  -560
  -582
  -606
  -631
  -657
  -685
  -714
  -745
  -777
  -812
  -848
  -886
  -926
  -969
  -1,013
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -373
  -401
  -429
  -457
  -485
  -514
  -544
  -573
  -605
  -636
  -669
  -704
  -738
  -776
  -813
  -854
  -895
  -940
  -986
  -1,033
  -1,084
  -1,137
  -1,193
  -1,250
  -1,312
  -1,376
  -1,444
  -1,514
  -1,589
  -1,667
Free cash flow, $m
  273
  406
  548
  700
  860
  1,030
  1,208
  1,394
  1,589
  1,793
  1,908
  2,130
  2,361
  2,601
  2,851
  3,111
  3,382
  3,665
  3,959
  4,266
  4,586
  4,920
  5,269
  5,634
  6,015
  6,414
  6,831
  7,267
  7,724
  8,203
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  426
  449
  473
  497
  521
  544
  568
  591
  616
  640
  665
  691
  719
  747
  776
  807
  840
  874
  910
  948
  987
  1,030
  1,074
  1,121
  1,170
  1,223
  1,278
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  152
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  578
  472
  473
  497
  521
  544
  568
  591
  616
  640
  665
  691
  719
  747
  776
  807
  840
  874
  910
  948
  987
  1,030
  1,074
  1,121
  1,170
  1,223
  1,278
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  852
  877
  1,021
  1,197
  1,381
  1,574
  1,775
  1,985
  2,205
  2,433
  2,574
  2,821
  3,079
  3,347
  3,627
  3,918
  4,222
  4,538
  4,869
  5,214
  5,574
  5,950
  6,343
  6,755
  7,185
  7,636
  8,108
  8,603
  9,121
  9,664
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -416
  -440
  -464
  -487
  -510
  -533
  -556
  -580
  -603
  -627
  -652
  -678
  -704
  -732
  -761
  -791
  -823
  -856
  -892
  -929
  -968
  -1,009
  -1,053
  -1,099
  -1,147
  -1,198
  -1,252
  -1,309
  -1,369
  -1,432
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  436
  437
  558
  710
  871
  1,040
  1,219
  1,406
  1,601
  1,806
  1,922
  2,144
  2,375
  2,616
  2,866
  3,127
  3,399
  3,682
  3,977
  4,285
  4,606
  4,941
  5,291
  5,656
  6,038
  6,438
  6,856
  7,294
  7,752
  8,232
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  413
  391
  467
  554
  630
  692
  741
  774
  793
  796
  748
  729
  698
  657
  608
  553
  495
  434
  375
  317
  264
  215
  171
  134
  102
  76
  55
  39
  27
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.3
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7
  94.7

Colfax Corporation is an industrial manufacturing and engineering company. The Company provides air and gas handling, and fabrication technology products and services. The Company's segments include Air and Gas handling, and Fabrication Technology. The Air and Gas Handling segment supplies a range of gas handling products, including heavy-duty centrifugal and axial fans, rotary heat exchangers, gas compressors, pumps and certain related products, as well as aftermarket services. It serves the power generation, oil, gas and petrochemical, mining, marine (including defense) and general industrial and other end markets. The Fabrication Technology segment supplies welding equipment and consumables, cutting equipment and consumables, and automated welding and cutting systems. It formulates, develops, manufactures and supplies consumable products and equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Colfax Corporation (CFX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 42
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 44.4%
Total Debt to Equity 44.6%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
EBITDA Margin 10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CFX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CFX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3667 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Colfax Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Colfax Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CFX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for CFX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Colfax Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Colfax Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CFX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1403 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CFX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Colfax Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Colfax Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CFX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CFX are equal to 63.1%.

Life of production assets of 28.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Colfax Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CFX is equal to 14.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3269.76 million for Colfax Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.502 million for Colfax Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Colfax Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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