Intrinsic value of CGG ADR - CGG

Previous Close

$2.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CGG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  1,458
  1,602
  1,752
  1,909
  2,072
  2,241
  2,418
  2,601
  2,792
  2,990
  3,195
  3,409
  3,632
  3,863
  4,104
  4,355
  4,616
  4,889
  5,173
  5,469
  5,778
  6,101
  6,439
  6,792
  7,161
  7,546
  7,950
  8,373
  8,815
  9,278
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,917
  2,083
  2,256
  2,436
  2,624
  2,819
  3,022
  3,233
  3,453
  3,681
  3,679
  3,925
  4,181
  4,448
  4,725
  5,014
  5,315
  5,628
  5,956
  6,297
  6,653
  7,025
  7,413
  7,820
  8,244
  8,688
  9,153
  9,640
  10,149
  10,682
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,917
  2,083
  2,256
  2,436
  2,624
  2,819
  3,022
  3,233
  3,453
  3,681
  3,679
  3,925
  4,181
  4,448
  4,725
  5,014
  5,315
  5,628
  5,956
  6,297
  6,653
  7,025
  7,413
  7,820
  8,244
  8,688
  9,153
  9,640
  10,149
  10,682
Operating income, $m
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -527
  -552
  -578
  -605
  -632
  -661
  -691
  -484
  -516
  -550
  -585
  -621
  -659
  -699
  -740
  -783
  -828
  -874
  -923
  -974
  -1,028
  -1,084
  -1,142
  -1,203
  -1,267
  -1,334
  -1,404
EBITDA, $m
  71
  78
  86
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  189
  200
  213
  225
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  368
  388
  409
  430
  453
Interest expense (income), $m
  142
  219
  247
  278
  309
  343
  377
  413
  450
  489
  529
  571
  614
  660
  707
  755
  806
  859
  915
  972
  1,032
  1,095
  1,160
  1,228
  1,300
  1,374
  1,452
  1,534
  1,619
  1,708
  1,802
Earnings before tax, $m
  -678
  -728
  -782
  -837
  -895
  -955
  -1,017
  -1,082
  -1,150
  -1,220
  -1,054
  -1,130
  -1,209
  -1,291
  -1,377
  -1,465
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,755
  -1,860
  -1,969
  -2,083
  -2,203
  -2,327
  -2,458
  -2,594
  -2,737
  -2,886
  -3,042
  -3,206
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -678
  -728
  -782
  -837
  -895
  -955
  -1,017
  -1,082
  -1,150
  -1,220
  -1,054
  -1,130
  -1,209
  -1,291
  -1,377
  -1,465
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,755
  -1,860
  -1,969
  -2,083
  -2,203
  -2,327
  -2,458
  -2,594
  -2,737
  -2,886
  -3,042
  -3,206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,704
  5,168
  5,652
  6,157
  6,683
  7,230
  7,799
  8,391
  9,005
  9,644
  10,308
  10,998
  11,715
  12,462
  13,239
  14,048
  14,891
  15,770
  16,686
  17,642
  18,640
  19,682
  20,771
  21,909
  23,099
  24,343
  25,645
  27,008
  28,435
  29,929
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,704
  5,168
  5,652
  6,157
  6,683
  7,230
  7,799
  8,391
  9,005
  9,644
  10,308
  10,998
  11,715
  12,462
  13,239
  14,048
  14,891
  15,770
  16,686
  17,642
  18,640
  19,682
  20,771
  21,909
  23,099
  24,343
  25,645
  27,008
  28,435
  29,929
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
Average production assets, $m
  1,897
  2,084
  2,279
  2,483
  2,695
  2,916
  3,146
  3,384
  3,632
  3,889
  4,157
  4,436
  4,725
  5,026
  5,339
  5,666
  6,006
  6,360
  6,730
  7,115
  7,518
  7,938
  8,377
  8,836
  9,316
  9,818
  10,343
  10,893
  11,468
  12,071
Working capital, $m
  414
  455
  498
  542
  588
  637
  687
  739
  793
  849
  907
  968
  1,031
  1,097
  1,166
  1,237
  1,311
  1,388
  1,469
  1,553
  1,641
  1,733
  1,829
  1,929
  2,034
  2,143
  2,258
  2,378
  2,503
  2,635
Total debt, $m
  3,343
  3,753
  4,182
  4,629
  5,095
  5,579
  6,083
  6,606
  7,150
  7,715
  8,303
  8,913
  9,548
  10,209
  10,897
  11,613
  12,359
  13,136
  13,947
  14,793
  15,677
  16,599
  17,563
  18,570
  19,623
  20,724
  21,876
  23,082
  24,345
  25,667
Total liabilities, $m
  4,163
  4,573
  5,002
  5,449
  5,914
  6,399
  6,902
  7,426
  7,970
  8,535
  9,122
  9,733
  10,368
  11,029
  11,717
  12,433
  13,179
  13,956
  14,767
  15,613
  16,496
  17,419
  18,382
  19,389
  20,442
  21,544
  22,696
  23,902
  25,165
  26,487
Total equity, $m
  541
  594
  650
  708
  769
  831
  897
  965
  1,036
  1,109
  1,185
  1,265
  1,347
  1,433
  1,522
  1,616
  1,712
  1,814
  1,919
  2,029
  2,144
  2,263
  2,389
  2,520
  2,656
  2,799
  2,949
  3,106
  3,270
  3,442
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,704
  5,167
  5,652
  6,157
  6,683
  7,230
  7,799
  8,391
  9,006
  9,644
  10,307
  10,998
  11,715
  12,462
  13,239
  14,049
  14,891
  15,770
  16,686
  17,642
  18,640
  19,682
  20,771
  21,909
  23,098
  24,343
  25,645
  27,008
  28,435
  29,929
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.180
  6.320
  6.430
  6.540
  6.630
  6.710
  6.780
  6.850
  6.900
  6.960
  7.000
  7.050
  7.090
  7.120
  7.160
  7.190
  7.220
  7.240
  7.270
  7.290
  7.310
  7.330
  7.350
  7.370
  7.390
  7.400
  7.420
  7.430
  7.440
  7.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -678
  -728
  -782
  -837
  -895
  -955
  -1,017
  -1,082
  -1,150
  -1,220
  -1,054
  -1,130
  -1,209
  -1,291
  -1,377
  -1,465
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,755
  -1,860
  -1,969
  -2,083
  -2,203
  -2,327
  -2,458
  -2,594
  -2,737
  -2,886
  -3,042
  -3,206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  530
  559
  589
  621
  653
  687
  723
  759
  797
  837
  640
  682
  727
  773
  821
  872
  924
  978
  1,035
  1,095
  1,157
  1,221
  1,289
  1,359
  1,433
  1,510
  1,591
  1,676
  1,764
  1,857
Funds from operations, $m
  -148
  -169
  -192
  -216
  -241
  -268
  -295
  -323
  -353
  -383
  -415
  -448
  -482
  -518
  -555
  -594
  -634
  -676
  -720
  -765
  -813
  -862
  -914
  -968
  -1,025
  -1,084
  -1,145
  -1,210
  -1,278
  -1,349
Change in working capital, $m
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
Cash from operations, $m
  -187
  -210
  -235
  -261
  -288
  -316
  -345
  -375
  -407
  -439
  -473
  -509
  -545
  -584
  -624
  -665
  -708
  -753
  -800
  -849
  -900
  -954
  -1,010
  -1,068
  -1,129
  -1,193
  -1,260
  -1,330
  -1,403
  -1,480
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -264
  -292
  -321
  -351
  -382
  -415
  -449
  -484
  -521
  -559
  -598
  -640
  -682
  -727
  -773
  -821
  -872
  -924
  -978
  -1,035
  -1,095
  -1,157
  -1,221
  -1,289
  -1,359
  -1,433
  -1,510
  -1,591
  -1,676
  -1,764
New CAPEX, $m
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -278
  -289
  -301
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -402
  -420
  -439
  -459
  -480
  -502
  -525
  -550
  -575
  -603
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -443
  -479
  -516
  -555
  -594
  -636
  -678
  -723
  -769
  -817
  -866
  -918
  -971
  -1,028
  -1,086
  -1,147
  -1,212
  -1,278
  -1,348
  -1,421
  -1,497
  -1,577
  -1,660
  -1,748
  -1,839
  -1,935
  -2,035
  -2,141
  -2,251
  -2,367
Free cash flow, $m
  -630
  -689
  -751
  -815
  -882
  -951
  -1,023
  -1,098
  -1,175
  -1,256
  -1,339
  -1,427
  -1,517
  -1,612
  -1,710
  -1,813
  -1,920
  -2,032
  -2,148
  -2,270
  -2,398
  -2,531
  -2,670
  -2,816
  -2,969
  -3,128
  -3,296
  -3,471
  -3,655
  -3,847
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  388
  410
  429
  447
  466
  484
  504
  523
  544
  565
  587
  611
  635
  661
  688
  716
  746
  778
  811
  846
  883
  922
  964
  1,007
  1,053
  1,101
  1,152
  1,206
  1,263
  1,322
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  730
  782
  837
  895
  955
  1,018
  1,083
  1,150
  1,221
  1,294
  1,131
  1,210
  1,292
  1,377
  1,466
  1,558
  1,655
  1,755
  1,860
  1,970
  2,084
  2,203
  2,328
  2,458
  2,595
  2,737
  2,886
  3,043
  3,206
  3,377
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,118
  1,192
  1,266
  1,342
  1,421
  1,502
  1,587
  1,673
  1,765
  1,859
  1,718
  1,821
  1,927
  2,038
  2,154
  2,274
  2,401
  2,533
  2,671
  2,816
  2,967
  3,125
  3,292
  3,465
  3,648
  3,838
  4,038
  4,249
  4,469
  4,699
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  488
  503
  515
  527
  539
  551
  563
  576
  589
  603
  379
  394
  410
  426
  443
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  595
  621
  649
  679
  710
  743
  778
  814
  853
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -730
  -782
  -837
  -895
  -955
  -1,018
  -1,083
  -1,150
  -1,221
  -1,294
  -1,131
  -1,210
  -1,292
  -1,377
  -1,466
  -1,558
  -1,655
  -1,755
  -1,860
  -1,970
  -2,084
  -2,203
  -2,328
  -2,458
  -2,595
  -2,737
  -2,886
  -3,043
  -3,206
  -3,377
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -242
  -278
  -322
  -368
  -416
  -467
  -519
  -574
  -631
  -690
  -752
  -816
  -882
  -951
  -1,022
  -1,097
  -1,174
  -1,254
  -1,337
  -1,424
  -1,514
  -1,609
  -1,707
  -1,809
  -1,916
  -2,027
  -2,143
  -2,265
  -2,392
  -2,525
Discount rate, %
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -217
  -221
  -225
  -222
  -215
  -204
  -189
  -171
  -152
  -132
  -112
  -93
  -75
  -60
  -46
  -35
  -25
  -18
  -12
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  31.9
  10.4
  3.5
  1.2
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

CGG SA (CGG) is a manufacturer of geophysical equipment. The Company provides marine, land and airborne data acquisition services, as well as a range of other geoscience services, including data imaging, geoscience and petroleum engineering consulting services, and collecting, developing and licensing geological data. Its segments include Contractual Data Acquisition; Geology, Geophysics & Reservoir (GGR); Equipment, and Non-Operated Resources. The Contractual Data Acquisition includes marine, and land and multi-physics. Its GGR segment includes the Multi-client business line and the Subsurface Imaging and Reservoir business lines (processing and imaging of geophysical data, reservoir characterization, geophysical consulting and software services, geological data library and data management solutions). The Equipment segment consists of its manufacturing and sales activities for seismic equipment. It operates through Saturno, a multi-client survey over Santos Basin Offshore Brazil.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CGG ADR (CGG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -43.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 35.6%
Total Debt to Equity 280.9%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Return On Total Capital -13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -21%
Return On Equity -47.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.7%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -4.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
EBITDA Margin -12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin -33.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -48.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.4%
Net Profit Margin -47.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.4%
Effective Tax Rate 2.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CGG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CGG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1320.8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CGG ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CGG ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CGG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for CGG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CGG ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CGG ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CGG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 133.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CGG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for CGG ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CGG ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CGG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CGG are equal to 130.1%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CGG ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CGG is equal to 28.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $489.1 million for CGG ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.093 million for CGG ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CGG ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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