Intrinsic value of Cognex - CGNX

Previous Close

$41.85

  Intrinsic Value

$32.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$41.85

 
Intrinsic value

$32.17

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CGNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.60
  17.24
  16.02
  14.91
  13.92
  13.03
  12.23
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
Revenue, $m
  887
  1,040
  1,207
  1,387
  1,580
  1,785
  2,004
  2,234
  2,477
  2,731
  2,997
  3,275
  3,564
  3,866
  4,179
  4,505
  4,844
  5,196
  5,562
  5,943
  6,338
  6,749
  7,177
  7,622
  8,086
  8,569
  9,073
  9,599
  10,147
  10,719
Variable operating expenses, $m
  501
  585
  676
  775
  882
  995
  1,115
  1,242
  1,375
  1,515
  1,649
  1,802
  1,961
  2,127
  2,299
  2,478
  2,665
  2,859
  3,060
  3,269
  3,486
  3,713
  3,948
  4,193
  4,448
  4,714
  4,991
  5,280
  5,582
  5,897
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
Total operating expenses, $m
  568
  654
  746
  847
  956
  1,070
  1,192
  1,321
  1,455
  1,597
  1,733
  1,888
  2,049
  2,217
  2,390
  2,571
  2,761
  2,957
  3,160
  3,371
  3,590
  3,820
  4,057
  4,304
  4,562
  4,830
  5,110
  5,401
  5,706
  6,024
Operating income, $m
  319
  386
  460
  539
  624
  715
  812
  914
  1,021
  1,134
  1,265
  1,388
  1,516
  1,650
  1,789
  1,934
  2,084
  2,240
  2,403
  2,572
  2,747
  2,930
  3,120
  3,318
  3,524
  3,739
  3,963
  4,197
  4,441
  4,696
EBITDA, $m
  345
  415
  491
  573
  661
  756
  856
  961
  1,072
  1,189
  1,311
  1,438
  1,571
  1,709
  1,853
  2,003
  2,159
  2,320
  2,488
  2,663
  2,845
  3,034
  3,231
  3,436
  3,649
  3,871
  4,103
  4,345
  4,597
  4,861
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  319
  384
  456
  533
  616
  704
  798
  897
  1,001
  1,110
  1,237
  1,356
  1,481
  1,611
  1,746
  1,886
  2,032
  2,183
  2,341
  2,505
  2,675
  2,852
  3,037
  3,229
  3,429
  3,637
  3,855
  4,081
  4,318
  4,565
Tax expense, $m
  86
  104
  123
  144
  166
  190
  215
  242
  270
  300
  334
  366
  400
  435
  471
  509
  549
  589
  632
  676
  722
  770
  820
  872
  926
  982
  1,041
  1,102
  1,166
  1,233
Net income, $m
  233
  281
  333
  389
  449
  514
  582
  654
  731
  810
  903
  990
  1,081
  1,176
  1,274
  1,377
  1,483
  1,594
  1,709
  1,828
  1,953
  2,082
  2,217
  2,357
  2,503
  2,655
  2,814
  2,979
  3,152
  3,333

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,181
  1,385
  1,607
  1,846
  2,103
  2,377
  2,668
  2,975
  3,298
  3,637
  3,991
  4,361
  4,746
  5,148
  5,565
  5,999
  6,450
  6,919
  7,406
  7,913
  8,439
  8,987
  9,557
  10,150
  10,767
  11,411
  12,081
  12,781
  13,511
  14,273
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,181
  1,385
  1,607
  1,846
  2,103
  2,377
  2,668
  2,975
  3,298
  3,637
  3,991
  4,361
  4,746
  5,148
  5,565
  5,999
  6,450
  6,919
  7,406
  7,913
  8,439
  8,987
  9,557
  10,150
  10,767
  11,411
  12,081
  12,781
  13,511
  14,273
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
Average production assets, $m
  146
  172
  199
  229
  261
  295
  331
  369
  409
  451
  495
  540
  588
  638
  690
  743
  799
  857
  918
  981
  1,046
  1,114
  1,184
  1,258
  1,334
  1,414
  1,497
  1,584
  1,674
  1,769
Working capital, $m
  134
  157
  182
  209
  239
  270
  303
  337
  374
  412
  453
  495
  538
  584
  631
  680
  731
  785
  840
  897
  957
  1,019
  1,084
  1,151
  1,221
  1,294
  1,370
  1,449
  1,532
  1,619
Total debt, $m
  36
  75
  118
  164
  214
  267
  323
  382
  444
  510
  578
  650
  724
  801
  882
  966
  1,053
  1,143
  1,237
  1,335
  1,437
  1,542
  1,652
  1,767
  1,886
  2,010
  2,140
  2,275
  2,416
  2,563
Total liabilities, $m
  228
  267
  310
  356
  406
  459
  515
  574
  636
  702
  770
  842
  916
  993
  1,074
  1,158
  1,245
  1,335
  1,429
  1,527
  1,629
  1,734
  1,844
  1,959
  2,078
  2,202
  2,332
  2,467
  2,608
  2,755
Total equity, $m
  953
  1,118
  1,297
  1,490
  1,697
  1,919
  2,153
  2,401
  2,661
  2,935
  3,221
  3,519
  3,830
  4,154
  4,491
  4,841
  5,205
  5,584
  5,977
  6,386
  6,811
  7,252
  7,712
  8,191
  8,689
  9,208
  9,750
  10,314
  10,903
  11,518
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,181
  1,385
  1,607
  1,846
  2,103
  2,378
  2,668
  2,975
  3,297
  3,637
  3,991
  4,361
  4,746
  5,147
  5,565
  5,999
  6,450
  6,919
  7,406
  7,913
  8,440
  8,986
  9,556
  10,150
  10,767
  11,410
  12,082
  12,781
  13,511
  14,273
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  233
  281
  333
  389
  449
  514
  582
  654
  731
  810
  903
  990
  1,081
  1,176
  1,274
  1,377
  1,483
  1,594
  1,709
  1,828
  1,953
  2,082
  2,217
  2,357
  2,503
  2,655
  2,814
  2,979
  3,152
  3,333
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  46
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
Funds from operations, $m
  259
  309
  364
  423
  486
  554
  626
  702
  781
  865
  949
  1,041
  1,136
  1,235
  1,339
  1,446
  1,558
  1,674
  1,795
  1,920
  2,051
  2,186
  2,328
  2,475
  2,628
  2,787
  2,954
  3,127
  3,309
  3,498
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  286
  339
  396
  457
  523
  593
  667
  745
  827
  909
  999
  1,092
  1,190
  1,291
  1,397
  1,507
  1,621
  1,739
  1,863
  1,991
  2,124
  2,263
  2,407
  2,558
  2,714
  2,878
  3,048
  3,226
  3,412
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -250
Free cash flow, $m
  204
  247
  295
  347
  404
  465
  529
  598
  670
  747
  823
  907
  994
  1,085
  1,180
  1,279
  1,381
  1,488
  1,599
  1,714
  1,834
  1,959
  2,088
  2,223
  2,364
  2,510
  2,662
  2,822
  2,987
  3,161
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  240
  287
  338
  394
  454
  517
  585
  657
  733
  812
  891
  978
  1,068
  1,163
  1,261
  1,362
  1,468
  1,578
  1,693
  1,812
  1,936
  2,064
  2,198
  2,338
  2,483
  2,634
  2,792
  2,957
  3,128
  3,308
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -149
  -164
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -221
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -442
  -460
  -479
  -498
  -519
  -541
  -565
  -589
  -615
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  292
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  382
  122
  159
  200
  246
  296
  351
  409
  472
  539
  606
  680
  757
  839
  924
  1,012
  1,104
  1,200
  1,300
  1,403
  1,511
  1,622
  1,738
  1,859
  1,984
  2,115
  2,251
  2,392
  2,539
  2,693
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  366
  112
  138
  165
  191
  215
  237
  256
  271
  282
  288
  290
  288
  282
  271
  257
  240
  221
  200
  178
  156
  135
  114
  95
  77
  62
  48
  37
  28
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cognex Corporation (Cognex) is a provider of machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate tasks, primarily in manufacturing processes, where vision is required. The Company operates through the machine vision technology segment. The Company's machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and tracking of discrete items, such as mobile phones, aspirin bottles and automobile tires, by locating, identifying, inspecting and measuring them during the manufacturing or distribution process. The Company's products include vision software, vision systems, vision sensors and identification (ID) products. Its products range from vision sensors that are integrated, to personal computer (PC)-based systems for users. Its products also have a range of physical forms, depending upon the user's need. Cognex sells its products through a direct sales force, as well as through a global network of integration and distribution partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cognex (CGNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48
Price to Sales 13.8
Price to Book 7.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Return On Equity 16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.6%
EBITDA Margin 35.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Operating Margin 30.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Net Profit Margin 28.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Effective Tax Rate 11.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Payout Ratio 16.7%

CGNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CGNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $747.95 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cognex. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cognex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CGNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CGNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cognex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cognex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CGNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $66 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CGNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cognex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cognex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CGNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CGNX are equal to 16.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cognex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CGNX is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1095.673 million for Cognex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 172.948 million for Cognex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cognex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

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