Intrinsic value of City Holding - CHCO

Previous Close

$81.61

  Intrinsic Value

$0.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$81.61

 
Intrinsic value

$0.48

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CHCO.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  282
  301
  319
  339
  360
  381
  403
  426
  451
  476
  502
  530
  559
  589
  621
  654
  689
  725
  763
  803
  844
  888
  934
  982
  1,032
Variable operating expenses, $m
  112
  121
  129
  138
  148
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  495
  520
  547
  575
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  112
  121
  129
  138
  148
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  495
  520
  547
  575
Operating income, $m
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
  374
  393
  414
  435
  457
EBITDA, $m
  527
  566
  607
  649
  693
  739
  786
  836
  887
  941
  997
  1,055
  1,116
  1,179
  1,246
  1,315
  1,387
  1,463
  1,542
  1,624
  1,711
  1,802
  1,896
  1,996
  2,100
  2,209
  2,323
  2,443
  2,569
  2,700
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  202
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  353
  373
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
  508
  534
  562
  590
  620
  652
  685
  719
  755
  793
  833
  875
Earnings before tax, $m
  -113
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -418
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -113
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -418

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,596
  3,864
  4,141
  4,430
  4,730
  5,042
  5,366
  5,704
  6,055
  6,421
  6,803
  7,201
  7,616
  8,049
  8,501
  8,973
  9,467
  9,983
  10,522
  11,087
  11,677
  12,296
  12,943
  13,621
  14,332
  15,076
  15,856
  16,674
  17,531
  18,430
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,596
  3,864
  4,141
  4,430
  4,730
  5,042
  5,366
  5,704
  6,055
  6,421
  6,803
  7,201
  7,616
  8,049
  8,501
  8,973
  9,467
  9,983
  10,522
  11,087
  11,677
  12,296
  12,943
  13,621
  14,332
  15,076
  15,856
  16,674
  17,531
  18,430
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
Average production assets, $m
  4,377
  4,702
  5,040
  5,392
  5,757
  6,136
  6,531
  6,942
  7,370
  7,815
  8,280
  8,764
  9,269
  9,796
  10,346
  10,921
  11,522
  12,150
  12,807
  13,494
  14,213
  14,965
  15,753
  16,579
  17,443
  18,349
  19,299
  20,294
  21,337
  22,431
Working capital, $m
  -3,830
  -4,115
  -4,411
  -4,718
  -5,037
  -5,370
  -5,715
  -6,075
  -6,449
  -6,839
  -7,245
  -7,669
  -8,111
  -8,572
  -9,053
  -9,556
  -10,082
  -10,632
  -11,206
  -11,807
  -12,437
  -13,095
  -13,785
  -14,507
  -15,264
  -16,056
  -16,887
  -17,758
  -18,671
  -19,628
Total debt, $m
  3,659
  3,899
  4,149
  4,409
  4,679
  4,960
  5,251
  5,555
  5,872
  6,201
  6,545
  6,903
  7,276
  7,666
  8,073
  8,498
  8,942
  9,406
  9,892
  10,400
  10,932
  11,488
  12,071
  12,681
  13,321
  13,991
  14,693
  15,429
  16,200
  17,009
Total liabilities, $m
  3,237
  3,477
  3,727
  3,987
  4,257
  4,538
  4,830
  5,133
  5,450
  5,779
  6,123
  6,481
  6,854
  7,244
  7,651
  8,076
  8,520
  8,984
  9,470
  9,978
  10,510
  11,066
  11,649
  12,259
  12,899
  13,569
  14,271
  15,007
  15,778
  16,587
Total equity, $m
  360
  386
  414
  443
  473
  504
  537
  570
  606
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  850
  897
  947
  998
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,230
  1,294
  1,362
  1,433
  1,508
  1,586
  1,667
  1,753
  1,843
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,597
  3,863
  4,141
  4,430
  4,730
  5,042
  5,367
  5,703
  6,056
  6,421
  6,803
  7,201
  7,616
  8,049
  8,501
  8,973
  9,467
  9,982
  10,522
  11,087
  11,678
  12,296
  12,943
  13,621
  14,332
  15,077
  15,857
  16,674
  17,531
  18,430
Debt-to-equity ratio
  10.170
  10.090
  10.020
  9.950
  9.890
  9.840
  9.790
  9.740
  9.700
  9.660
  9.620
  9.590
  9.550
  9.520
  9.500
  9.470
  9.450
  9.420
  9.400
  9.380
  9.360
  9.340
  9.330
  9.310
  9.290
  9.280
  9.270
  9.250
  9.240
  9.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -113
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -418
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  438
  470
  504
  539
  576
  614
  653
  694
  737
  782
  828
  876
  927
  980
  1,035
  1,092
  1,152
  1,215
  1,281
  1,349
  1,421
  1,497
  1,575
  1,658
  1,744
  1,835
  1,930
  2,029
  2,134
  2,243
Funds from operations, $m
  325
  369
  396
  425
  455
  486
  518
  552
  587
  624
  662
  702
  743
  786
  832
  879
  928
  980
  1,034
  1,090
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
  1,490
  1,568
  1,650
  1,736
  1,826
Change in working capital, $m
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -424
  -442
  -461
  -482
  -503
  -526
  -550
  -575
  -601
  -629
  -659
  -690
  -722
  -757
  -793
  -831
  -871
  -913
  -957
Cash from operations, $m
  599
  653
  692
  732
  774
  818
  864
  912
  962
  1,014
  1,068
  1,125
  1,185
  1,248
  1,313
  1,382
  1,454
  1,529
  1,608
  1,691
  1,778
  1,870
  1,966
  2,066
  2,172
  2,282
  2,399
  2,521
  2,649
  2,783
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -406
  -438
  -470
  -504
  -539
  -576
  -614
  -653
  -694
  -737
  -782
  -828
  -876
  -927
  -980
  -1,035
  -1,092
  -1,152
  -1,215
  -1,281
  -1,349
  -1,421
  -1,497
  -1,575
  -1,658
  -1,744
  -1,835
  -1,930
  -2,029
  -2,134
New CAPEX, $m
  -319
  -325
  -338
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -395
  -411
  -428
  -446
  -464
  -484
  -505
  -527
  -550
  -575
  -601
  -628
  -657
  -687
  -719
  -753
  -788
  -825
  -865
  -906
  -949
  -995
  -1,043
  -1,094
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -725
  -763
  -808
  -855
  -904
  -956
  -1,009
  -1,064
  -1,122
  -1,183
  -1,246
  -1,312
  -1,381
  -1,454
  -1,530
  -1,610
  -1,693
  -1,780
  -1,872
  -1,968
  -2,068
  -2,174
  -2,285
  -2,400
  -2,523
  -2,650
  -2,784
  -2,925
  -3,072
  -3,228
Free cash flow, $m
  -126
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -85
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  486
  508
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  670
  702
  736
  772
  809
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  478
  128
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  225
  237
  248
  261
  273
  287
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
  400
  420
  440
  462
  484
  507
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  393
  368
  386
  403
  421
  440
  459
  480
  501
  523
  547
  573
  598
  627
  655
  686
  717
  751
  787
  824
  863
  904
  947
  992
  1,039
  1,090
  1,142
  1,198
  1,256
  1,316
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  267
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  315
  327
  341
  355
  370
  386
  402
  420
  438
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  756
  793
  831
  872
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -478
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -261
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -382
  -400
  -420
  -440
  -462
  -484
  -507
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -205
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
Discount rate, %
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.66
  30.09
  31.60
  33.18
  34.84
  36.58
  38.41
  40.33
  42.35
  44.46
  46.69
  49.02
  51.47
  54.05
  56.75
  59.59
  62.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -178
  97
  84
  72
  60
  50
  40
  32
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  36.8
  27.3
  20.3
  15.1
  11.3
  8.5
  6.4
  4.8
  3.7
  2.8
  2.1
  1.6
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

City Holding Company is a financial holding company. The Company conducts its principal activities through its subsidiary, City National Bank of West Virginia (City National). As of December 31, 2016, the City National provided banking, trust and investment management and other financial solutions through its network of 85 banking offices located in the states of West Virginia, Virginia, eastern Kentucky and southeastern Ohio. City National offers various products and services, including commercial banking, consumer banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management and trust services. City National provides credit, deposit and investment advisory products and services to rural and small community markets in addition to cities, including Charleston, Huntington, Martinsburg, Winchester, Staunton, Virginia Beach, Ashland and Lexington. City National offers a range of commercial banking services to corporations and other business customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  City Holding (CHCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 60%
Total Debt to Equity 60%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 32.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Payout Ratio 50%

CHCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $187 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by City Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of City Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.2%, whose default value for CHCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of City Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of City Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for City Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for City Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHCO stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHCO are equal to 2173.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in City Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHCO is equal to -1901.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for City Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15 million for City Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of City Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ City Holding: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-19-18 07:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ City Holding: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-19-18 07:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ West Virginia bank to open first Central Ohio location, eyeing banks to buy here   [Apr-09-18 02:08PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Best NasdaqGS Financial Dividend Paying Companies   [Mar-29-18 01:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ City Holding posts 4Q profit   [Jan-23-18 07:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ City Holding posts 3Q profit   [Oct-18-17 07:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ City National Bank to Open Morgantown Branch   [Oct-16-17 10:27AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to City Holding Co. : October 12, 2017   [Oct-12-17 10:22AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to City Holding Co. : August 23, 2017   [Aug-23-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ City Holding posts 2Q profit   [Jul-24-17 10:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to City Holding Co. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to City Holding Co. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ City Holding posts 1Q profit   [Apr-24-17 07:44AM  Associated Press]
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