Intrinsic value of Chemed - CHE

Previous Close

$208.30

  Intrinsic Value

$175.84

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  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$208.30

 
Intrinsic value

$175.84

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.20
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  1,577
  1,678
  1,783
  1,892
  2,006
  2,125
  2,249
  2,378
  2,513
  2,654
  2,801
  2,954
  3,115
  3,283
  3,459
  3,643
  3,836
  4,037
  4,249
  4,470
  4,702
  4,945
  5,200
  5,467
  5,747
  6,041
  6,349
  6,672
  7,011
  7,367
  7,740
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,475
  1,565
  1,658
  1,755
  1,856
  1,961
  2,071
  2,186
  2,306
  2,431
  2,514
  2,651
  2,794
  2,944
  3,100
  3,264
  3,436
  3,616
  3,804
  4,002
  4,209
  4,426
  4,653
  4,891
  5,141
  5,404
  5,679
  5,967
  6,270
  6,588
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,398
  1,475
  1,565
  1,658
  1,755
  1,856
  1,961
  2,071
  2,186
  2,306
  2,431
  2,514
  2,651
  2,794
  2,944
  3,100
  3,264
  3,436
  3,616
  3,804
  4,002
  4,209
  4,426
  4,653
  4,891
  5,141
  5,404
  5,679
  5,967
  6,270
  6,588
Operating income, $m
  179
  203
  218
  235
  252
  269
  288
  307
  327
  348
  370
  440
  464
  489
  515
  543
  571
  601
  633
  666
  700
  736
  774
  814
  856
  900
  946
  994
  1,044
  1,097
  1,153
EBITDA, $m
  214
  260
  276
  293
  311
  329
  348
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  564
  594
  626
  658
  693
  728
  766
  806
  847
  890
  936
  984
  1,034
  1,086
  1,141
  1,199
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  177
  199
  214
  230
  246
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  358
  427
  450
  474
  499
  525
  552
  580
  610
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  822
  864
  908
  953
  1,001
  1,052
  1,105
Tax expense, $m
  68
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
Net income, $m
  109
  145
  156
  168
  179
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
  261
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  446
  468
  492
  518
  544
  571
  600
  631
  663
  696
  731
  768
  806

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  880
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,304
  1,378
  1,456
  1,536
  1,621
  1,709
  1,801
  1,897
  1,998
  2,104
  2,215
  2,331
  2,452
  2,579
  2,713
  2,852
  2,999
  3,153
  3,314
  3,483
  3,660
  3,846
  4,041
  4,246
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  865
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,304
  1,378
  1,456
  1,536
  1,621
  1,709
  1,801
  1,897
  1,998
  2,104
  2,215
  2,331
  2,452
  2,579
  2,713
  2,852
  2,999
  3,153
  3,314
  3,483
  3,660
  3,846
  4,041
  4,246
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.823
  1.824
  1.823
  1.823
  1.822
  1.822
  1.823
  1.824
  1.824
  1.823
  1.824
  1.822
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
Average production assets, $m
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  426
  448
  472
  496
  522
  549
  577
  607
  638
  671
  705
  741
  778
  818
  859
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Total debt, $m
  109
  122
  145
  169
  194
  220
  248
  276
  306
  337
  369
  403
  438
  475
  514
  554
  597
  641
  688
  736
  787
  841
  897
  956
  1,017
  1,082
  1,150
  1,221
  1,295
  1,374
  1,456
Total liabilities, $m
  356
  369
  392
  416
  441
  467
  495
  523
  553
  584
  616
  650
  685
  722
  761
  801
  844
  888
  935
  983
  1,034
  1,088
  1,144
  1,203
  1,264
  1,329
  1,397
  1,468
  1,542
  1,621
  1,703
Total equity, $m
  524
  551
  586
  622
  659
  698
  739
  781
  826
  872
  920
  971
  1,024
  1,079
  1,137
  1,197
  1,260
  1,327
  1,396
  1,469
  1,545
  1,625
  1,709
  1,796
  1,888
  1,985
  2,086
  2,192
  2,304
  2,421
  2,543
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  880
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,100
  1,165
  1,234
  1,304
  1,379
  1,456
  1,536
  1,621
  1,709
  1,801
  1,898
  1,998
  2,104
  2,215
  2,331
  2,452
  2,579
  2,713
  2,853
  2,999
  3,152
  3,314
  3,483
  3,660
  3,846
  4,042
  4,246
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.208
  0.220
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.588
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  145
  156
  168
  179
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
  261
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  446
  468
  492
  518
  544
  571
  600
  631
  663
  696
  731
  768
  806
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  57
  58
  59
  59
  60
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  110
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  521
  547
  575
  604
  635
  667
  701
  736
  773
  812
  853
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  203
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  330
  348
  366
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
  522
  548
  576
  606
  636
  669
  702
  738
  775
  814
  855
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
Free cash flow, $m
  95
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  296
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  404
  424
  446
  469
  493
  518
  545
  572
  601
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -79
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  204
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  520
  547
  574
  604
  634
  666
  700
  735
  772
  811
  851
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  177
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
  382
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  516
  542
  570
  598
  629
  660
  694
  729
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  169
  166
  167
  167
  166
  164
  161
  157
  152
  146
  133
  126
  118
  110
  101
  92
  83
  74
  65
  56
  48
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chemed Corporation purchases, operates and divests subsidiaries engaged in various business activities. The Company operates through two segments: the VITAS segment (VITAS) and the Roto-Rooter segment (Roto-Rooter). The Company's VITAS provides hospice and palliative care services to its patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy and volunteers. VITAS is the provider of hospice services in an industry dominated primarily by small, non-profit, community-based hospices. VITAS provides hospice care to Medicare beneficiaries participating in these managed care programs. A portion of its VITAS business is operated in the state of Florida. The Roto-Rooter segment provides plumbing, drain cleaning, water restoration and other related services to both residential and commercial customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chemed (CHE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.9
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 6.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.1%
Total Debt to Equity 20.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Return On Total Capital 17.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Return On Equity 21%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

CHE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1577 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chemed. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chemed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chemed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chemed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chemed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chemed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHE are equal to 11.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chemed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHE is equal to -0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $524 million for Chemed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.985 million for Chemed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chemed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chemed Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : August 18, 2017   [Aug-18-17 04:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chemed Corporation Increases Quarterly Dividend 7.7%   [Aug-04-17 12:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chemed reports 2Q loss   [Jul-25-17 11:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chemed Reports Second-Quarter 2017 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 03:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New COO takes over at Cincinnati-owned health care firm   [Jun-20-17 12:19PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Chemed posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chemed Reports First-Quarter 2017 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy for the Post-Obamacare Era   [Feb-27-17 05:07PM  Zacks]
▶ Chemed Reports Fourth-Quarter 2016 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Sterling Bancorp (STL)?   [Dec-08-16 05:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Chemed Corporation (CHE) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-03-16 05:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Chemed Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend of 26 Cents   [Nov-04-16 12:32PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of CHE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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