Intrinsic value of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. - CHKP

Previous Close

$113.32

  Intrinsic Value

$73.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$113.32

 
Intrinsic value

$73.83

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHKP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  1,976
  2,101
  2,232
  2,368
  2,509
  2,657
  2,811
  2,972
  3,139
  3,315
  3,498
  3,689
  3,889
  4,098
  4,317
  4,547
  4,787
  5,038
  5,301
  5,577
  5,866
  6,169
  6,487
  6,819
  7,169
  7,535
  7,919
  8,322
  8,744
  9,188
Variable operating expenses, $m
  725
  770
  817
  867
  918
  972
  1,028
  1,086
  1,147
  1,210
  1,269
  1,338
  1,411
  1,487
  1,566
  1,650
  1,737
  1,828
  1,923
  2,023
  2,128
  2,238
  2,353
  2,474
  2,601
  2,734
  2,873
  3,019
  3,172
  3,333
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  262
  267
  273
  279
  285
  292
  298
  305
  311
  318
  325
  332
  340
  347
  355
  363
  371
  379
  387
  396
  404
  413
  422
  432
  441
  451
  461
  471
  481
  492
Total operating expenses, $m
  987
  1,037
  1,090
  1,146
  1,203
  1,264
  1,326
  1,391
  1,458
  1,528
  1,594
  1,670
  1,751
  1,834
  1,921
  2,013
  2,108
  2,207
  2,310
  2,419
  2,532
  2,651
  2,775
  2,906
  3,042
  3,185
  3,334
  3,490
  3,653
  3,825
Operating income, $m
  989
  1,064
  1,141
  1,222
  1,306
  1,394
  1,485
  1,581
  1,681
  1,786
  1,904
  2,018
  2,139
  2,264
  2,396
  2,535
  2,679
  2,831
  2,991
  3,158
  3,334
  3,518
  3,711
  3,914
  4,127
  4,350
  4,585
  4,832
  5,091
  5,363
EBITDA, $m
  1,014
  1,090
  1,168
  1,250
  1,335
  1,425
  1,518
  1,615
  1,717
  1,823
  1,934
  2,051
  2,172
  2,300
  2,434
  2,574
  2,721
  2,875
  3,037
  3,207
  3,385
  3,572
  3,768
  3,973
  4,189
  4,416
  4,654
  4,904
  5,167
  5,443
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  6
  13
  20
  28
  35
  43
  52
  60
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  146
  159
  172
  186
  201
  217
  233
  251
  269
  288
  307
  328
  350
  373
Earnings before tax, $m
  989
  1,057
  1,128
  1,201
  1,278
  1,358
  1,442
  1,529
  1,621
  1,717
  1,825
  1,930
  2,039
  2,154
  2,275
  2,401
  2,534
  2,673
  2,819
  2,972
  3,132
  3,301
  3,477
  3,663
  3,858
  4,063
  4,278
  4,504
  4,741
  4,990
Tax expense, $m
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  389
  413
  438
  464
  493
  521
  551
  582
  614
  648
  684
  722
  761
  802
  846
  891
  939
  989
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
  1,216
  1,280
  1,347
Net income, $m
  722
  772
  823
  877
  933
  992
  1,053
  1,117
  1,183
  1,253
  1,332
  1,409
  1,489
  1,573
  1,661
  1,753
  1,850
  1,951
  2,058
  2,169
  2,286
  2,409
  2,539
  2,674
  2,816
  2,966
  3,123
  3,288
  3,461
  3,642

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,597
  5,952
  6,322
  6,707
  7,108
  7,527
  7,963
  8,418
  8,894
  9,390
  9,909
  10,451
  11,018
  11,610
  12,231
  12,880
  13,560
  14,272
  15,018
  15,799
  16,618
  17,476
  18,375
  19,319
  20,308
  21,345
  22,433
  23,574
  24,771
  26,027
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,597
  5,952
  6,322
  6,707
  7,108
  7,527
  7,963
  8,418
  8,894
  9,390
  9,909
  10,451
  11,018
  11,610
  12,231
  12,880
  13,560
  14,272
  15,018
  15,799
  16,618
  17,476
  18,375
  19,319
  20,308
  21,345
  22,433
  23,574
  24,771
  26,027
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
Average production assets, $m
  518
  550
  585
  620
  657
  696
  736
  779
  823
  868
  916
  967
  1,019
  1,074
  1,131
  1,191
  1,254
  1,320
  1,389
  1,461
  1,537
  1,616
  1,699
  1,787
  1,878
  1,974
  2,075
  2,180
  2,291
  2,407
Working capital, $m
  -695
  -740
  -786
  -833
  -883
  -935
  -989
  -1,046
  -1,105
  -1,167
  -1,231
  -1,299
  -1,369
  -1,443
  -1,520
  -1,600
  -1,685
  -1,773
  -1,866
  -1,963
  -2,065
  -2,171
  -2,283
  -2,400
  -2,523
  -2,652
  -2,787
  -2,929
  -3,078
  -3,234
Total debt, $m
  118
  244
  375
  511
  654
  802
  956
  1,117
  1,286
  1,461
  1,645
  1,837
  2,037
  2,247
  2,467
  2,697
  2,937
  3,189
  3,453
  3,730
  4,020
  4,324
  4,642
  4,976
  5,326
  5,693
  6,078
  6,482
  6,906
  7,351
Total liabilities, $m
  1,981
  2,107
  2,238
  2,374
  2,516
  2,664
  2,819
  2,980
  3,148
  3,324
  3,508
  3,700
  3,900
  4,110
  4,330
  4,560
  4,800
  5,052
  5,316
  5,593
  5,883
  6,186
  6,505
  6,839
  7,189
  7,556
  7,941
  8,345
  8,769
  9,214
Total equity, $m
  3,615
  3,845
  4,084
  4,333
  4,592
  4,862
  5,144
  5,438
  5,745
  6,066
  6,401
  6,751
  7,117
  7,500
  7,901
  8,321
  8,760
  9,220
  9,701
  10,206
  10,735
  11,289
  11,871
  12,480
  13,119
  13,789
  14,492
  15,229
  16,002
  16,814
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,596
  5,952
  6,322
  6,707
  7,108
  7,526
  7,963
  8,418
  8,893
  9,390
  9,909
  10,451
  11,017
  11,610
  12,231
  12,881
  13,560
  14,272
  15,017
  15,799
  16,618
  17,475
  18,376
  19,319
  20,308
  21,345
  22,433
  23,574
  24,771
  26,028
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  722
  772
  823
  877
  933
  992
  1,053
  1,117
  1,183
  1,253
  1,332
  1,409
  1,489
  1,573
  1,661
  1,753
  1,850
  1,951
  2,058
  2,169
  2,286
  2,409
  2,539
  2,674
  2,816
  2,966
  3,123
  3,288
  3,461
  3,642
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
Funds from operations, $m
  747
  798
  851
  905
  963
  1,023
  1,085
  1,150
  1,219
  1,290
  1,363
  1,441
  1,523
  1,608
  1,698
  1,793
  1,892
  1,995
  2,104
  2,218
  2,338
  2,463
  2,595
  2,734
  2,879
  3,032
  3,192
  3,360
  3,537
  3,723
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
Cash from operations, $m
  790
  842
  896
  953
  1,013
  1,074
  1,139
  1,207
  1,278
  1,352
  1,427
  1,508
  1,593
  1,682
  1,775
  1,873
  1,976
  2,084
  2,197
  2,315
  2,439
  2,570
  2,707
  2,851
  3,002
  3,161
  3,327
  3,502
  3,686
  3,879
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
Free cash flow, $m
  742
  792
  844
  898
  955
  1,014
  1,076
  1,140
  1,208
  1,278
  1,350
  1,427
  1,508
  1,593
  1,682
  1,776
  1,873
  1,976
  2,084
  2,197
  2,315
  2,439
  2,570
  2,707
  2,851
  3,002
  3,161
  3,327
  3,502
  3,686
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  445
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  118
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  445
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  860
  918
  975
  1,035
  1,097
  1,162
  1,230
  1,301
  1,376
  1,454
  1,534
  1,619
  1,709
  1,803
  1,902
  2,005
  2,114
  2,228
  2,348
  2,473
  2,605
  2,743
  2,888
  3,041
  3,201
  3,369
  3,546
  3,731
  3,926
  4,131
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -219
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -401
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -581
  -609
  -639
  -670
  -703
  -737
  -773
  -811
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  204
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  845
  688
  736
  786
  838
  892
  948
  1,007
  1,069
  1,133
  1,199
  1,269
  1,343
  1,420
  1,501
  1,586
  1,675
  1,768
  1,866
  1,968
  2,076
  2,189
  2,307
  2,432
  2,562
  2,699
  2,843
  2,994
  3,153
  3,319
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  810
  630
  640
  647
  649
  647
  641
  630
  614
  594
  569
  542
  511
  477
  441
  403
  364
  326
  287
  250
  215
  182
  151
  124
  100
  79
  61
  46
  34
  25
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (Check point) develops, markets and supports a range of products and services for information technology (IT) security. The Company's products and services are sold to enterprises, service providers, small and medium sized businesses and consumers. It offers enterprises a platform to deploy independent, modular and interoperable security applications (Software Blades), such as firewall, virtual private network (VPN), intrusion prevention system (IPS), Application Control, Anti-Bot, antivirus, data loss prevention (DLP), policy management, event analysis or multi-domain management. The Company offers Software Blades grouped into functional packages to address specific security issues. It has product offerings under these packages, which include Next Generation Firewall, Next Generation Threat Prevention, Next Generation Secure Web Gateway and Next Generation Data Protection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 10.8
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 41.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Total Capital 20.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Return On Equity 20.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
EBITDA Margin 52.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.4%
Operating Margin 48.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 51.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.5%
Net Profit Margin 41.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Effective Tax Rate 19.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CHKP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHKP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1855 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHKP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHKP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHKP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $256 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHKP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHKP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHKP are equal to 26.2%.

Life of production assets of 54.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHKP is equal to -35.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3600.123 million for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 159.026 million for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.0 billion.

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