Intrinsic value of Chico's Fas - CHS

Previous Close

$8.92

  Intrinsic Value

$8.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$8.92

 
Intrinsic value

$8.17

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,328
  2,381
  2,442
  2,511
  2,587
  2,671
  2,762
  2,860
  2,966
  3,080
  3,202
  3,332
  3,470
  3,617
  3,773
  3,939
  4,114
  4,299
  4,494
  4,701
  4,919
  5,148
  5,391
  5,646
  5,915
  6,198
  6,496
  6,809
  7,139
  7,486
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,195
  2,245
  2,302
  2,367
  2,438
  2,516
  2,601
  2,694
  2,793
  2,900
  3,000
  3,122
  3,252
  3,389
  3,536
  3,691
  3,855
  4,028
  4,211
  4,405
  4,609
  4,824
  5,051
  5,290
  5,542
  5,807
  6,087
  6,380
  6,689
  7,014
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,195
  2,245
  2,302
  2,367
  2,438
  2,516
  2,601
  2,694
  2,793
  2,900
  3,000
  3,122
  3,252
  3,389
  3,536
  3,691
  3,855
  4,028
  4,211
  4,405
  4,609
  4,824
  5,051
  5,290
  5,542
  5,807
  6,087
  6,380
  6,689
  7,014
Operating income, $m
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  202
  210
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  449
  471
EBITDA, $m
  206
  211
  216
  222
  229
  237
  245
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  381
  398
  416
  436
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  663
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  334
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
Tax expense, $m
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
Net income, $m
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,109
  1,134
  1,164
  1,196
  1,233
  1,272
  1,316
  1,363
  1,413
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,653
  1,723
  1,798
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,141
  2,240
  2,343
  2,453
  2,568
  2,690
  2,818
  2,953
  3,095
  3,244
  3,401
  3,566
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,109
  1,134
  1,164
  1,196
  1,233
  1,272
  1,316
  1,363
  1,413
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,653
  1,723
  1,798
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,141
  2,240
  2,343
  2,453
  2,568
  2,690
  2,818
  2,953
  3,095
  3,244
  3,401
  3,566
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.099
  2.100
  2.098
  2.099
  2.098
  2.100
  2.099
  2.098
  2.099
  2.100
  2.100
  2.100
  2.099
  2.099
  2.098
  2.100
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
  2.099
Average production assets, $m
  596
  610
  625
  643
  662
  684
  707
  732
  759
  788
  820
  853
  888
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,053
  1,100
  1,151
  1,203
  1,259
  1,318
  1,380
  1,445
  1,514
  1,587
  1,663
  1,743
  1,828
  1,916
Working capital, $m
  119
  121
  125
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
Total debt, $m
  76
  86
  98
  111
  125
  141
  158
  177
  197
  218
  241
  266
  292
  319
  349
  380
  413
  448
  485
  524
  565
  608
  654
  702
  753
  806
  862
  922
  984
  1,049
Total liabilities, $m
  439
  449
  461
  474
  488
  504
  521
  540
  560
  581
  604
  629
  655
  682
  712
  743
  776
  811
  848
  887
  928
  971
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,285
  1,347
  1,412
Total equity, $m
  670
  685
  703
  723
  744
  769
  795
  823
  854
  886
  921
  959
  999
  1,041
  1,086
  1,133
  1,184
  1,237
  1,293
  1,353
  1,415
  1,482
  1,551
  1,625
  1,702
  1,783
  1,869
  1,959
  2,054
  2,154
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,109
  1,134
  1,164
  1,197
  1,232
  1,273
  1,316
  1,363
  1,414
  1,467
  1,525
  1,588
  1,654
  1,723
  1,798
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,141
  2,240
  2,343
  2,453
  2,568
  2,690
  2,818
  2,952
  3,094
  3,244
  3,401
  3,566
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  92
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
Funds from operations, $m
  168
  171
  175
  180
  184
  190
  196
  202
  209
  216
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  433
  453
  475
  497
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  165
  168
  172
  176
  181
  186
  191
  197
  204
  211
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  260
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  458
  479
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -223
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -272
Free cash flow, $m
  96
  95
  95
  96
  97
  98
  99
  101
  103
  105
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  103
  105
  107
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  127
  132
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Cash available for distribution, $m
  89
  90
  89
  89
  89
  90
  90
  91
  93
  94
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  86
  82
  78
  73
  69
  65
  61
  57
  53
  49
  44
  40
  37
  33
  30
  27
  23
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chico's FAS, Inc. is an omni-channel specialty retailer of women's private branded, casual-to-dressy clothing, intimates and accessories, operating under the Chico's, White House Black Market (WHBM) and Soma brand names. The Company is also engaged in the sale of merchandise in its domestic and international retail stores. The Chico's brand sells private branded clothing focusing on women 45 and older. Chico's apparel includes the Black Label, Zenergy and Travelers collections. The WHBM brand sells private branded clothing focusing on women 35 and older. WHBM sells clothing and accessory items, including everyday basics, wear-to-work, denim and occasion. It offers black and white color palette. The accessories at WHBM include shoes, belts, scarves, handbags and jewelry. The Soma brand sells private branded lingerie, sleepwear, loungewear, activewear and beauty products focusing on women 35 and older. The lingerie category includes bras, panties, shapewear and swimwear.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chico's Fas (CHS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -43.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.3%
Total Debt to Equity 14%
Interest Coverage 71
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 12.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 34.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
Payout Ratio 46.2%

CHS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2282 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chico's Fas. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Chico's Fas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chico's Fas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chico's Fas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Chico's Fas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chico's Fas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHS stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHS are equal to 25.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chico's Fas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHS is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $656 million for Chico's Fas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125 million for Chico's Fas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chico's Fas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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