Intrinsic value of Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem - CIG

Previous Close

$2.08

  Intrinsic Value

$3.11

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  Rating & Target

buy

+50%

Previous close

$2.08

 
Intrinsic value

$3.11

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  6,002
  6,254
  6,521
  6,804
  7,104
  7,422
  7,757
  8,112
  8,486
  8,881
  9,297
  9,735
  10,197
  10,684
  11,196
  11,735
  12,303
  12,899
  13,527
  14,187
  14,880
  15,610
  16,376
  17,182
  18,029
  18,919
  19,854
  20,836
  21,868
  22,952
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,004
  5,200
  5,408
  5,629
  5,862
  6,109
  6,370
  6,646
  6,938
  7,245
  7,236
  7,578
  7,937
  8,316
  8,715
  9,134
  9,576
  10,040
  10,529
  11,042
  11,582
  12,150
  12,747
  13,374
  14,033
  14,726
  15,453
  16,218
  17,021
  17,865
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,004
  5,200
  5,408
  5,629
  5,862
  6,109
  6,370
  6,646
  6,938
  7,245
  7,236
  7,578
  7,937
  8,316
  8,715
  9,134
  9,576
  10,040
  10,529
  11,042
  11,582
  12,150
  12,747
  13,374
  14,033
  14,726
  15,453
  16,218
  17,021
  17,865
Operating income, $m
  998
  1,054
  1,113
  1,176
  1,242
  1,313
  1,387
  1,466
  1,548
  1,636
  2,060
  2,158
  2,260
  2,368
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
  2,859
  2,998
  3,144
  3,298
  3,460
  3,630
  3,808
  3,996
  4,193
  4,400
  4,618
  4,847
  5,087
EBITDA, $m
  1,751
  1,824
  1,902
  1,985
  2,073
  2,165
  2,263
  2,366
  2,476
  2,591
  2,712
  2,840
  2,975
  3,117
  3,266
  3,424
  3,589
  3,763
  3,946
  4,139
  4,341
  4,554
  4,778
  5,013
  5,260
  5,519
  5,792
  6,078
  6,380
  6,696
Interest expense (income), $m
  749
  834
  898
  967
  1,041
  1,120
  1,203
  1,291
  1,384
  1,482
  1,586
  1,695
  1,811
  1,932
  2,060
  2,195
  2,337
  2,486
  2,643
  2,809
  2,983
  3,166
  3,358
  3,560
  3,772
  3,996
  4,230
  4,477
  4,736
  5,008
  5,294
Earnings before tax, $m
  164
  156
  146
  134
  122
  110
  96
  82
  66
  50
  365
  347
  328
  308
  286
  264
  240
  215
  189
  161
  132
  102
  70
  36
  0
  -37
  -77
  -118
  -162
  -207
Tax expense, $m
  44
  42
  39
  36
  33
  30
  26
  22
  18
  14
  99
  94
  89
  83
  77
  71
  65
  58
  51
  44
  36
  27
  19
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  119
  114
  106
  98
  89
  80
  70
  60
  48
  37
  267
  253
  239
  225
  209
  193
  175
  157
  138
  118
  97
  74
  51
  26
  0
  -37
  -77
  -118
  -162
  -207

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,428
  13,991
  14,588
  15,222
  15,893
  16,604
  17,354
  18,147
  18,984
  19,867
  20,798
  21,780
  22,813
  23,902
  25,048
  26,253
  27,522
  28,857
  30,261
  31,737
  33,289
  34,921
  36,636
  38,439
  40,333
  42,324
  44,415
  46,613
  48,922
  51,347
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,428
  13,991
  14,588
  15,222
  15,893
  16,604
  17,354
  18,147
  18,984
  19,867
  20,798
  21,780
  22,813
  23,902
  25,048
  26,253
  27,522
  28,857
  30,261
  31,737
  33,289
  34,921
  36,636
  38,439
  40,333
  42,324
  44,415
  46,613
  48,922
  51,347
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
Average production assets, $m
  4,208
  4,384
  4,571
  4,770
  4,980
  5,203
  5,438
  5,686
  5,949
  6,225
  6,517
  6,825
  7,148
  7,490
  7,849
  8,226
  8,624
  9,042
  9,482
  9,945
  10,431
  10,942
  11,480
  12,045
  12,638
  13,262
  13,917
  14,606
  15,329
  16,089
Working capital, $m
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Total debt, $m
  5,015
  5,404
  5,818
  6,256
  6,721
  7,212
  7,732
  8,280
  8,860
  9,471
  10,115
  10,794
  11,509
  12,262
  13,055
  13,890
  14,768
  15,692
  16,663
  17,685
  18,759
  19,888
  21,075
  22,322
  23,633
  25,011
  26,458
  27,979
  29,576
  31,255
Total liabilities, $m
  9,292
  9,682
  10,095
  10,534
  10,998
  11,490
  12,009
  12,558
  13,137
  13,748
  14,392
  15,071
  15,787
  16,540
  17,333
  18,167
  19,045
  19,969
  20,941
  21,962
  23,036
  24,165
  25,352
  26,600
  27,911
  29,288
  30,735
  32,256
  33,854
  35,532
Total equity, $m
  4,136
  4,309
  4,493
  4,688
  4,895
  5,114
  5,345
  5,589
  5,847
  6,119
  6,406
  6,708
  7,026
  7,362
  7,715
  8,086
  8,477
  8,888
  9,320
  9,775
  10,253
  10,756
  11,284
  11,839
  12,423
  13,036
  13,680
  14,357
  15,068
  15,815
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,428
  13,991
  14,588
  15,222
  15,893
  16,604
  17,354
  18,147
  18,984
  19,867
  20,798
  21,779
  22,813
  23,902
  25,048
  26,253
  27,522
  28,857
  30,261
  31,737
  33,289
  34,921
  36,636
  38,439
  40,334
  42,324
  44,415
  46,613
  48,922
  51,347
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.210
  1.250
  1.290
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.480
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  119
  114
  106
  98
  89
  80
  70
  60
  48
  37
  267
  253
  239
  225
  209
  193
  175
  157
  138
  118
  97
  74
  51
  26
  0
  -37
  -77
  -118
  -162
  -207
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  753
  771
  789
  809
  830
  853
  876
  901
  927
  955
  652
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
  862
  904
  948
  994
  1,043
  1,094
  1,148
  1,204
  1,264
  1,326
  1,392
  1,461
  1,533
  1,609
Funds from operations, $m
  872
  885
  896
  907
  920
  933
  946
  960
  976
  991
  918
  936
  954
  974
  994
  1,015
  1,038
  1,061
  1,086
  1,112
  1,140
  1,169
  1,199
  1,231
  1,264
  1,289
  1,315
  1,343
  1,371
  1,402
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  872
  884
  895
  907
  919
  932
  945
  959
  974
  990
  917
  935
  953
  972
  992
  1,014
  1,036
  1,060
  1,084
  1,110
  1,138
  1,166
  1,196
  1,228
  1,261
  1,286
  1,312
  1,340
  1,368
  1,398
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -404
  -421
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -520
  -544
  -569
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -682
  -715
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -862
  -904
  -948
  -994
  -1,043
  -1,094
  -1,148
  -1,204
  -1,264
  -1,326
  -1,392
  -1,461
  -1,533
New CAPEX, $m
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -210
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -292
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -624
  -655
  -689
  -723
  -760
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -656
  -687
  -721
  -755
  -792
  -831
  -872
  -915
  -959
  -1,006
  -1,056
  -1,108
  -1,163
  -1,221
  -1,280
  -1,344
  -1,411
  -1,480
  -1,554
  -1,631
  -1,713
  -1,798
  -1,888
  -1,981
  -2,081
  -2,184
  -2,293
Free cash flow, $m
  301
  287
  269
  251
  231
  211
  190
  167
  143
  119
  3
  -25
  -53
  -84
  -116
  -149
  -184
  -221
  -260
  -300
  -343
  -388
  -435
  -485
  -537
  -601
  -669
  -741
  -816
  -894
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  353
  389
  414
  439
  464
  491
  520
  549
  579
  611
  644
  679
  715
  753
  793
  835
  878
  924
  971
  1,022
  1,074
  1,129
  1,187
  1,247
  1,311
  1,377
  1,447
  1,521
  1,598
  1,678
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  45
  59
  78
  97
  117
  139
  161
  185
  209
  235
  20
  49
  79
  111
  144
  179
  215
  254
  294
  337
  381
  428
  477
  529
  583
  650
  721
  795
  873
  954
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  398
  448
  492
  536
  581
  630
  681
  734
  788
  846
  664
  728
  794
  864
  937
  1,014
  1,093
  1,178
  1,265
  1,359
  1,455
  1,557
  1,664
  1,776
  1,894
  2,027
  2,168
  2,316
  2,471
  2,632
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  700
  736
  761
  786
  813
  841
  870
  901
  932
  965
  667
  703
  741
  780
  821
  864
  909
  957
  1,006
  1,058
  1,112
  1,169
  1,229
  1,292
  1,358
  1,427
  1,499
  1,575
  1,655
  1,738
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -165
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -318
  -335
  -353
  -371
  -391
  -411
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -503
  -528
  -555
  -583
  -650
  -721
  -795
  -873
  -954
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  535
  562
  576
  591
  607
  623
  639
  656
  674
  693
  380
  401
  422
  445
  468
  493
  519
  545
  574
  603
  634
  667
  701
  737
  774
  776
  778
  780
  782
  784
Discount rate, %
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  502
  492
  467
  440
  412
  383
  353
  323
  292
  262
  124
  111
  98
  86
  74
  63
  53
  43
  35
  28
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.4
  96.4
  94.0
  91.2
  88.0
  84.6
  81.0
  77.1
  73.2
  69.2
  68.9
  68.2
  67.1
  65.6
  63.8
  61.8
  59.5
  57.0
  54.5
  51.8
  49.1
  46.3
  43.5
  40.8
  38.1
  35.5
  32.9
  30.4
  27.9
  25.6

Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-CEMIG is a holding company that is engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The Company's segments include Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Telecom, Gas and Other. The Company, through its interests in subsidiaries or jointly controlled entities, is engaged in the activities of the construction and operation of systems for sale of electricity, as well as various fields of energy and telecommunications, for the purpose of commercial operation. Its electric power transmission business consists of transporting power from the facilities where it is generated to points of consumption, distribution networks and Free Consumers. Its distribution operation consists of transfers of electricity from distribution substations to final consumers. It is also engaged in businesses, such as telecommunications, energy solutions consulting, and acquisition, transport and distribution of gas and its subproducts and derivatives.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem (CIG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 117.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 80%
Total Debt to Equity 117.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
EBITDA Margin 19%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 8.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Payout Ratio 200.9%

CIG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5766 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for CIG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 17.9% for Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIG are equal to 70.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIG is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3971 million for Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1259 million for Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais-Cem at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Cheap Stocks Under $3 to Consider Now   [Jun-14-18 08:50AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Filing of 2017 20-F Form with the SEC   [May-24-18 05:20PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Cemig Files 2016 20-F Form with the SEC   [May-17-17 02:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Shares of CEMIG Slump Following Court Injunction   [Mar-22-17 02:03PM  Motley Fool]
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