Intrinsic value of Ciner Resources - CINR

Previous Close

$23.87

  Intrinsic Value

$40.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+68%

Previous close

$23.87

 
Intrinsic value

$40.16

 
Up/down potential

+68%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CINR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  507
  519
  532
  547
  564
  582
  602
  623
  646
  671
  698
  726
  756
  788
  822
  858
  896
  937
  979
  1,024
  1,072
  1,122
  1,175
  1,230
  1,289
  1,351
  1,416
  1,484
  1,556
  1,631
Variable operating expenses, $m
  411
  421
  432
  444
  457
  472
  488
  505
  524
  544
  566
  589
  613
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  794
  831
  869
  910
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,203
  1,262
  1,323
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  411
  421
  432
  444
  457
  472
  488
  505
  524
  544
  566
  589
  613
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  794
  831
  869
  910
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,203
  1,262
  1,323
Operating income, $m
  96
  98
  101
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
EBITDA, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  315
  330
  346
  362
  380
  398
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
Tax expense, $m
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
Net income, $m
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  462
  473
  485
  499
  514
  531
  549
  568
  589
  612
  636
  662
  689
  719
  750
  782
  817
  854
  893
  934
  977
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
  1,418
  1,487
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  462
  473
  485
  499
  514
  531
  549
  568
  589
  612
  636
  662
  689
  719
  750
  782
  817
  854
  893
  934
  977
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
  1,418
  1,487
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.097
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.098
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
Average production assets, $m
  258
  264
  270
  278
  286
  296
  306
  317
  328
  341
  354
  369
  384
  400
  418
  436
  455
  476
  498
  520
  545
  570
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  754
  790
  829
Working capital, $m
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Total debt, $m
  156
  163
  171
  180
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  349
  371
  395
  419
  445
  473
  502
  533
  565
  599
  635
  673
  713
  755
  799
  845
Total liabilities, $m
  311
  318
  327
  336
  346
  357
  369
  382
  397
  412
  428
  445
  464
  484
  504
  527
  550
  575
  601
  628
  658
  688
  721
  755
  791
  829
  868
  910
  954
  1,001
Total equity, $m
  151
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  320
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
  442
  464
  486
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  462
  473
  486
  499
  514
  530
  548
  568
  590
  612
  636
  661
  689
  719
  749
  783
  817
  854
  893
  933
  978
  1,022
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,232
  1,290
  1,352
  1,418
  1,487
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.030
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
Funds from operations, $m
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  165
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  92
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
Free cash flow, $m
  57
  58
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  64
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  61
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  59
  56
  54
  52
  50
  48
  46
  44
  41
  39
  36
  34
  31
  29
  26
  23
  21
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ciner Resources LP, through its subsidiary, Ciner Wyoming LLC (Ciner Wyoming), produces soda ash and serves a global market from its facility in the Green River Basin of Wyoming. The Company processes trona ore into soda ash, a raw material in flat glass, container glass, detergents, chemicals, paper and other consumer and industrial products. As of December 31, 2016, its Green River Basin surface operations were situated on approximately 880 acres in Wyoming, and the Company's mining operations included approximately 23,500 acres of leased and licensed subsurface mining area. The Company's mining leases and license are located in two mining beds, designated by the United States Geological Survey as beds 24 and 25, at depths of 800 to 1100 feet, respectively, below the surface. The Company uses a continuous mining technique to mine trona and roof bolt the ceiling simultaneously. The Company's soda ash is shipped by rail or truck from its Green River Basin operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ciner Resources (CINR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 58.2%
Total Debt to Equity 64.1%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Total Capital 15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
EBITDA Margin 24.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 107.3%

CINR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CINR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $497.3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ciner Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ciner Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CINR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CINR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ciner Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ciner Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CINR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CINR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ciner Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ciner Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CINR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CINR are equal to 50.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ciner Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CINR is equal to 21.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $148.4 million for Ciner Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.759 million for Ciner Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ciner Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ciner Resources: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-05-18 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 3rd Quarter 2018 Results   [Oct-29-18 01:53PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Oct-25-18 05:18PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Ciner Resources LP (NYSE:CINR) A Great Dividend Stock?   [Sep-14-18 08:18AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Ciner Resources: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-06-18 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 2nd Quarter 2018 Results   [Jul-30-18 03:26PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Jul-26-18 04:22PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 10th   [May-10-18 09:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Ciner Resources: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 1st Quarter 2018 Results   [May-01-18 12:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Apr-26-18 04:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 19th   [Apr-19-18 10:18AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for February 21st   [Feb-21-18 10:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-16-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Ciner Resources posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-18 06:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 4th Quarter 2017 Results   [Feb-06-18 05:24PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Feb-01-18 04:57PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-07-17 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Ciner Resources posts 3Q profit   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 3rd Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 11:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Oct-26-17 06:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources posts 2Q profit   [12:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 2nd Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-01-17 10:42AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Jul-28-17 02:37PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 06:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ciner Resources LP to Release 1st Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution   [Apr-21-17 10:42AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ciner Resources misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-16-17 06:11PM  Associated Press]
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