Intrinsic value of CompX International Cl A - CIX

Previous Close

$13.72

  Intrinsic Value

$7.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$13.72

 
Intrinsic value

$7.60

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
  340
  359
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  489
  515
  541
  569
  599
  630
Variable operating expenses, $m
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  270
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  430
  453
  476
  500
  526
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  270
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  430
  453
  476
  500
  526
Operating income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
EBITDA, $m
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
Tax expense, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  290
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  471
  497
  523
  550
  579
  609
  641
  674
  709
  745
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  290
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  471
  497
  523
  550
  579
  609
  641
  674
  709
  745
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.846
  0.844
  0.848
  0.847
  0.847
  0.847
  0.847
  0.843
  0.844
  0.845
  0.843
  0.845
  0.844
  0.846
  0.843
  0.845
  0.846
  0.844
  0.845
  0.844
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.846
  0.844
  0.844
  0.845
  0.846
Average production assets, $m
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  175
  185
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
Working capital, $m
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
Total liabilities, $m
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
Total equity, $m
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  274
  289
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379
  399
  421
  443
  466
  491
  517
  543
  572
  601
  632
  665
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  289
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  402
  425
  447
  472
  497
  522
  550
  580
  609
  641
  674
  709
  745
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  21
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  20
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CompX International Inc. is a manufacturer of security products used in the recreational transportation, postal, office and institutional furniture, cabinetry, tool storage, healthcare and other industries, and stainless steel exhaust systems, gauges and throttle controls for the recreational marine industry. The Company operates through two business segments: Security Products and Marine Components. Its security products include disc tumbler locks; pin tumbler locking mechanisms, and CompX eLock and StealthLock electronic locks. Its marine components include original equipment and aftermarket stainless steel exhaust headers, exhaust pipes, mufflers and other exhaust components; gauges; mechanical and electronic controls and throttles; steering wheels and other billet aluminum accessories, and dash panels. The Company's brands include National Cabinet Lock, Fort Lock, Timberline Lock, Chicago Lock, Mega Rim, Race Rim, Vantage View and GEN-X.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CompX International Cl A (CIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Operating Margin 14.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 20%

CIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $112.035 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CompX International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CompX International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CompX International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CompX International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CompX International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CompX International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIX are equal to 39.7%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CompX International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIX is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $136.585 million for CompX International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.436 million for CompX International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CompX International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
EML Eastern 29.29 29.02  hold
NL NL Industries 4.88 6.03  sell
VHI Valhi 2.15 29.73  str.buy
ALLE Allegion 88.46 101.14  hold
NNBR NN 7.32 32.62  str.buy
TKR Timken 41.16 151.54  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ CompX: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-31-18 06:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2018 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CompX: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2018 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Feb-28-18 04:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Nov-01-17 04:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CompX posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 09:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [May-05-17 04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Nov-02-16 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top 6 Shareholders of BHP Billiton   [Aug-15-16 05:00PM  Investopedia]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:48PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.