Intrinsic value of Colgate-Palmolive - CL

Previous Close

$67.93

  Intrinsic Value

$32.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-51%

Previous close

$67.93

 
Intrinsic value

$32.98

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 58.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15,763
  16,126
  16,540
  17,005
  17,521
  18,087
  18,703
  19,369
  20,088
  20,859
  21,683
  22,563
  23,500
  24,496
  25,553
  26,673
  27,858
  29,111
  30,436
  31,834
  33,310
  34,866
  36,506
  38,235
  40,055
  41,971
  43,989
  46,111
  48,345
  50,693
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,784
  12,047
  12,347
  12,684
  13,058
  13,468
  13,915
  14,398
  14,919
  15,478
  15,720
  16,358
  17,037
  17,759
  18,525
  19,337
  20,196
  21,105
  22,065
  23,079
  24,149
  25,277
  26,466
  27,719
  29,039
  30,428
  31,890
  33,429
  35,048
  36,751
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,784
  12,047
  12,347
  12,684
  13,058
  13,468
  13,915
  14,398
  14,919
  15,478
  15,720
  16,358
  17,037
  17,759
  18,525
  19,337
  20,196
  21,105
  22,065
  23,079
  24,149
  25,277
  26,466
  27,719
  29,039
  30,428
  31,890
  33,429
  35,048
  36,751
Operating income, $m
  3,979
  4,079
  4,193
  4,321
  4,463
  4,618
  4,788
  4,971
  5,169
  5,381
  5,964
  6,206
  6,463
  6,737
  7,028
  7,336
  7,662
  8,007
  8,371
  8,755
  9,161
  9,589
  10,040
  10,516
  11,016
  11,543
  12,098
  12,682
  13,296
  13,942
EBITDA, $m
  4,706
  4,814
  4,938
  5,077
  5,231
  5,399
  5,583
  5,782
  5,997
  6,227
  6,473
  6,736
  7,016
  7,313
  7,628
  7,963
  8,317
  8,691
  9,086
  9,504
  9,944
  10,409
  10,898
  11,414
  11,958
  12,530
  13,132
  13,766
  14,432
  15,134
Interest expense (income), $m
  162
  355
  296
  310
  327
  345
  366
  389
  413
  440
  468
  499
  532
  567
  604
  644
  686
  731
  778
  828
  881
  937
  995
  1,057
  1,123
  1,192
  1,264
  1,341
  1,421
  1,506
  1,595
Earnings before tax, $m
  3,624
  3,783
  3,883
  3,994
  4,117
  4,252
  4,399
  4,558
  4,729
  4,913
  5,465
  5,674
  5,896
  6,133
  6,384
  6,650
  6,931
  7,228
  7,543
  7,875
  8,225
  8,594
  8,983
  9,393
  9,825
  10,279
  10,757
  11,261
  11,790
  12,347
Tax expense, $m
  979
  1,021
  1,048
  1,078
  1,112
  1,148
  1,188
  1,231
  1,277
  1,326
  1,475
  1,532
  1,592
  1,656
  1,724
  1,795
  1,871
  1,952
  2,037
  2,126
  2,221
  2,320
  2,425
  2,536
  2,653
  2,775
  2,905
  3,040
  3,183
  3,334
Net income, $m
  2,646
  2,762
  2,834
  2,916
  3,006
  3,104
  3,212
  3,327
  3,452
  3,586
  3,989
  4,142
  4,304
  4,477
  4,660
  4,854
  5,060
  5,277
  5,506
  5,748
  6,004
  6,273
  6,558
  6,857
  7,172
  7,504
  7,853
  8,220
  8,607
  9,014

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  12,931
  13,229
  13,569
  13,950
  14,373
  14,837
  15,343
  15,889
  16,479
  17,111
  17,788
  18,510
  19,278
  20,095
  20,962
  21,881
  22,853
  23,881
  24,968
  26,115
  27,326
  28,602
  29,948
  31,366
  32,859
  34,431
  36,086
  37,827
  39,659
  41,586
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,931
  13,229
  13,569
  13,950
  14,373
  14,837
  15,343
  15,889
  16,479
  17,111
  17,788
  18,510
  19,278
  20,095
  20,962
  21,881
  22,853
  23,881
  24,968
  26,115
  27,326
  28,602
  29,948
  31,366
  32,859
  34,431
  36,086
  37,827
  39,659
  41,586
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
  1.219
Average production assets, $m
  5,817
  5,950
  6,103
  6,275
  6,465
  6,674
  6,901
  7,147
  7,412
  7,697
  8,001
  8,326
  8,672
  9,039
  9,429
  9,842
  10,280
  10,742
  11,231
  11,747
  12,291
  12,866
  13,471
  14,109
  14,780
  15,487
  16,232
  17,015
  17,839
  18,706
Working capital, $m
  -299
  -306
  -314
  -323
  -333
  -344
  -355
  -368
  -382
  -396
  -412
  -429
  -447
  -465
  -486
  -507
  -529
  -553
  -578
  -605
  -633
  -662
  -694
  -726
  -761
  -797
  -836
  -876
  -919
  -963
Total debt, $m
  5,479
  5,747
  6,053
  6,396
  6,777
  7,194
  7,649
  8,142
  8,672
  9,241
  9,850
  10,500
  11,191
  11,927
  12,707
  13,534
  14,409
  15,334
  16,312
  17,345
  18,434
  19,583
  20,794
  22,070
  23,414
  24,829
  26,318
  27,885
  29,534
  31,268
Total liabilities, $m
  11,638
  11,906
  12,212
  12,555
  12,936
  13,353
  13,808
  14,301
  14,831
  15,400
  16,009
  16,659
  17,350
  18,086
  18,866
  19,693
  20,568
  21,493
  22,471
  23,504
  24,593
  25,742
  26,953
  28,229
  29,573
  30,988
  32,477
  34,044
  35,693
  37,427
Total equity, $m
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,484
  1,534
  1,589
  1,648
  1,711
  1,779
  1,851
  1,928
  2,010
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,995
  3,137
  3,286
  3,443
  3,609
  3,783
  3,966
  4,159
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  12,931
  13,229
  13,569
  13,950
  14,373
  14,837
  15,342
  15,890
  16,479
  17,111
  17,788
  18,510
  19,278
  20,096
  20,962
  21,881
  22,853
  23,881
  24,968
  26,116
  27,326
  28,602
  29,948
  31,366
  32,859
  34,431
  36,086
  37,827
  39,659
  41,586
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.240
  4.340
  4.460
  4.590
  4.710
  4.850
  4.990
  5.120
  5.260
  5.400
  5.540
  5.670
  5.810
  5.940
  6.060
  6.190
  6.300
  6.420
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.850
  6.940
  7.040
  7.130
  7.210
  7.290
  7.370
  7.450
  7.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2,646
  2,762
  2,834
  2,916
  3,006
  3,104
  3,212
  3,327
  3,452
  3,586
  3,989
  4,142
  4,304
  4,477
  4,660
  4,854
  5,060
  5,277
  5,506
  5,748
  6,004
  6,273
  6,558
  6,857
  7,172
  7,504
  7,853
  8,220
  8,607
  9,014
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  726
  735
  745
  756
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  846
  510
  530
  552
  576
  601
  627
  655
  684
  715
  748
  783
  819
  858
  899
  941
  986
  1,034
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
Funds from operations, $m
  3,372
  3,497
  3,579
  3,671
  3,773
  3,885
  4,007
  4,139
  4,280
  4,432
  4,499
  4,672
  4,857
  5,053
  5,261
  5,481
  5,714
  5,961
  6,222
  6,497
  6,787
  7,093
  7,416
  7,755
  8,113
  8,490
  8,887
  9,304
  9,743
  10,205
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Cash from operations, $m
  3,378
  3,504
  3,587
  3,680
  3,783
  3,896
  4,019
  4,151
  4,294
  4,447
  4,514
  4,689
  4,874
  5,072
  5,281
  5,502
  5,737
  5,985
  6,247
  6,523
  6,815
  7,122
  7,447
  7,788
  8,148
  8,527
  8,925
  9,344
  9,786
  10,250
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -363
  -370
  -379
  -389
  -400
  -412
  -425
  -440
  -455
  -472
  -490
  -510
  -530
  -552
  -576
  -601
  -627
  -655
  -684
  -715
  -748
  -783
  -819
  -858
  -899
  -941
  -986
  -1,034
  -1,084
  -1,136
New CAPEX, $m
  -116
  -134
  -153
  -172
  -190
  -209
  -227
  -246
  -265
  -284
  -304
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -463
  -489
  -516
  -545
  -574
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -707
  -744
  -783
  -824
  -867
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -479
  -504
  -532
  -561
  -590
  -621
  -652
  -686
  -720
  -756
  -794
  -835
  -876
  -919
  -966
  -1,014
  -1,064
  -1,118
  -1,173
  -1,231
  -1,293
  -1,357
  -1,424
  -1,496
  -1,571
  -1,648
  -1,730
  -1,817
  -1,908
  -2,003
Free cash flow, $m
  2,899
  2,999
  3,055
  3,120
  3,193
  3,276
  3,366
  3,466
  3,574
  3,690
  3,720
  3,854
  3,998
  4,152
  4,315
  4,489
  4,673
  4,867
  5,074
  5,292
  5,522
  5,765
  6,022
  6,292
  6,578
  6,878
  7,194
  7,527
  7,878
  8,247
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,098
  268
  306
  344
  381
  418
  455
  492
  530
  569
  609
  650
  692
  735
  780
  827
  875
  925
  978
  1,032
  1,089
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
  1,489
  1,567
  1,649
  1,734
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,098
  268
  306
  344
  381
  418
  455
  492
  530
  569
  609
  650
  692
  735
  780
  827
  875
  925
  978
  1,032
  1,089
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
  1,489
  1,567
  1,649
  1,734
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,801
  3,267
  3,361
  3,463
  3,574
  3,693
  3,821
  3,958
  4,104
  4,260
  4,329
  4,504
  4,690
  4,887
  5,095
  5,315
  5,548
  5,793
  6,052
  6,324
  6,612
  6,914
  7,233
  7,568
  7,921
  8,293
  8,684
  9,095
  9,527
  9,981
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,353
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  448
  3,237
  3,327
  3,425
  3,532
  3,647
  3,771
  3,903
  4,045
  4,196
  4,261
  4,432
  4,613
  4,805
  5,009
  5,223
  5,450
  5,690
  5,943
  6,210
  6,491
  6,787
  7,098
  7,427
  7,772
  8,136
  8,518
  8,920
  9,343
  9,788
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  420
  2,826
  2,687
  2,540
  2,388
  2,229
  2,065
  1,899
  1,730
  1,561
  1,364
  1,206
  1,053
  909
  773
  648
  535
  435
  347
  272
  209
  157
  116
  83
  58
  40
  27
  17
  11
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a consumer products company. The Company operates in two product segments: Oral, Personal and Home Care, and Pet Nutrition. The Oral, Personal and Home Care product segment is operated through five geographic segments, which include North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Africa/Eurasia. The Company's oral care products include Colgate Total, Colgate Sensitive Pro-Relief, Colgate Max Fresh and Colgate Optic White. The Company is also engaged in various product categories of the personal care market with operations in liquid hand soap, which it sells under the Palmolive, Protex and Softsoap brands. The Company manufactures and markets a range of products for the home care market, including Palmolive and Ajax dishwashing liquids, Fabuloso and Ajax household cleaners and Murphy's Oil Soap. The Company, through its Hill's Pet Nutrition segment (Hill's), manufactures pet nutrition products for dogs and cats.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.6
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book -246.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 103
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -2683.1%
Total Debt to Equity -2688.5%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Return On Total Capital 38.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Return On Equity -900.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -149.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.3%
EBITDA Margin 28.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 16.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 61.8%

CL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15454 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Colgate-Palmolive. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Colgate-Palmolive. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for CL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Colgate-Palmolive, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Colgate-Palmolive.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Colgate-Palmolive.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Colgate-Palmolive. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CL are equal to 36.9%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Colgate-Palmolive operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CL is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-60 million for Colgate-Palmolive - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 867.739 million for Colgate-Palmolive is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Colgate-Palmolive at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $58.9 billion.

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