Intrinsic value of Clarus Corporation - CLAR

Previous Close

$13.56

  Intrinsic Value

$3.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$13.56

 
Intrinsic value

$3.91

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
Revenue, $m
  231
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  359
  384
  409
  436
  463
  492
  522
  553
  586
  619
  655
  692
  730
  770
  813
  857
  903
  951
  1,001
  1,054
  1,109
  1,167
  1,228
  1,291
Variable operating expenses, $m
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  298
  314
  334
  354
  375
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
  522
  551
  581
  612
  645
  679
  715
  752
  791
  833
  876
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  113
Total operating expenses, $m
  219
  234
  249
  264
  281
  297
  315
  333
  352
  371
  389
  411
  432
  455
  479
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
  644
  676
  709
  744
  781
  819
  858
  900
  944
  989
Operating income, $m
  12
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  45
  51
  58
  65
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  146
  157
  168
  180
  193
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  284
  302
EBITDA, $m
  20
  25
  31
  36
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  94
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  188
  201
  215
  229
  245
  261
  278
  295
  314
  333
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  15
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  70
  77
  84
  92
  101
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  253
  270
  287
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
Net income, $m
  7
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  210

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  232
  251
  272
  293
  315
  337
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
  556
  589
  623
  658
  695
  734
  774
  817
  861
  907
  955
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,298
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  232
  251
  272
  293
  315
  337
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
  556
  589
  623
  658
  695
  734
  774
  817
  861
  907
  955
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,298
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.996
  0.996
  0.993
  0.993
  0.994
  0.997
  0.994
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.995
  0.995
  0.994
  0.995
  0.996
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.996
  0.996
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
  0.995
Average production assets, $m
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
Working capital, $m
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307
  323
  341
  359
  378
  398
  419
  441
  465
  489
  514
Total debt, $m
  26
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  197
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  180
  189
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  286
Total equity, $m
  181
  196
  212
  228
  245
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  363
  386
  409
  434
  459
  486
  513
  542
  572
  604
  637
  671
  708
  745
  785
  826
  870
  915
  962
  1,012
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  232
  251
  272
  292
  314
  337
  361
  386
  412
  438
  465
  495
  524
  556
  588
  623
  658
  695
  733
  774
  817
  860
  908
  955
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,233
  1,298
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  210
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  213
  227
  241
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  215
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  0
  3
  6
  10
  13
  17
  20
  24
  29
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  8
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  9
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  77
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  159
  169
  180
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  10
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -2
  0
  2
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.3
  97.3
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0
  97.0

Clarus Corporation, formerly Black Diamond, Inc., through its ownership of Black Diamond Equipment, Ltd., is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing of active outdoor performance equipment and apparel for climbing, mountaineering, backpacking, skiing and a range of other year-round outdoor recreation activities. Its principal brands include Black Diamond and PIEPS. It offer a range of products, including apparel, such as jackets, shells, pants and bibs; rock-climbing equipment, such as carabiners, protection devices, harnesses, belay devices, helmets, and ice-climbing gear; technical backpacks and high-end day packs; tents; trekking poles; headlamps and lanterns, and gloves and mittens. The Company also offers advanced skis, ski poles, ski bindings, ski skins, and ski safety products, including avalanche airbag systems, avalanche transceivers, shovels and probes. The Company's products are sold in North America, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world in over 50 countries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clarus Corporation (CLAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -45.2
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 81.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 203.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 13.7%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Return On Total Capital -4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
EBITDA Margin -2.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.1%
Operating Margin -4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Net Profit Margin -6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Effective Tax Rate -12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $212 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clarus Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Clarus Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clarus Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clarus Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $59 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Clarus Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clarus Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLAR are equal to 30.4%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clarus Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLAR is equal to 39.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $166.205 million for Clarus Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.749 million for Clarus Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clarus Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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