Intrinsic value of Core Laboratories - CLB

Previous Close

$84.20

  Intrinsic Value

$55.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$84.20

 
Intrinsic value

$55.36

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  732
  807
  886
  969
  1,054
  1,144
  1,237
  1,334
  1,434
  1,539
  1,647
  1,760
  1,878
  2,000
  2,127
  2,259
  2,396
  2,540
  2,689
  2,845
  3,008
  3,178
  3,355
  3,540
  3,734
  3,936
  4,148
  4,370
  4,602
  4,845
Variable operating expenses, $m
  433
  475
  520
  566
  615
  666
  718
  773
  830
  889
  931
  995
  1,062
  1,131
  1,202
  1,277
  1,355
  1,436
  1,521
  1,609
  1,701
  1,797
  1,897
  2,002
  2,111
  2,226
  2,346
  2,471
  2,602
  2,739
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  161
  165
  169
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
  196
  201
  205
  210
  214
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  244
  250
  255
  261
  266
  272
  278
  284
  291
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  594
  640
  689
  738
  791
  846
  902
  961
  1,022
  1,085
  1,132
  1,200
  1,272
  1,345
  1,421
  1,501
  1,584
  1,670
  1,760
  1,853
  1,951
  2,052
  2,158
  2,268
  2,383
  2,504
  2,630
  2,762
  2,899
  3,043
Operating income, $m
  138
  167
  198
  230
  263
  298
  335
  373
  412
  453
  515
  560
  606
  655
  705
  758
  813
  870
  930
  992
  1,058
  1,126
  1,197
  1,272
  1,350
  1,432
  1,518
  1,608
  1,703
  1,802
EBITDA, $m
  176
  207
  240
  274
  310
  347
  386
  427
  469
  513
  559
  607
  656
  708
  762
  818
  876
  937
  1,001
  1,068
  1,138
  1,210
  1,286
  1,366
  1,450
  1,537
  1,629
  1,725
  1,825
  1,931
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
Earnings before tax, $m
  125
  152
  180
  209
  240
  272
  305
  340
  376
  413
  471
  512
  554
  599
  645
  693
  743
  795
  850
  907
  967
  1,029
  1,095
  1,163
  1,235
  1,310
  1,388
  1,471
  1,557
  1,648
Tax expense, $m
  34
  41
  49
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  101
  112
  127
  138
  150
  162
  174
  187
  201
  215
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  314
  333
  354
  375
  397
  420
  445
Net income, $m
  92
  111
  131
  153
  175
  198
  223
  248
  274
  302
  344
  374
  405
  437
  471
  506
  542
  581
  620
  662
  706
  751
  799
  849
  901
  956
  1,013
  1,074
  1,137
  1,203

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  648
  715
  785
  858
  934
  1,013
  1,096
  1,181
  1,270
  1,363
  1,459
  1,559
  1,663
  1,771
  1,884
  2,001
  2,123
  2,250
  2,382
  2,520
  2,664
  2,815
  2,972
  3,136
  3,307
  3,487
  3,674
  3,871
  4,076
  4,291
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  648
  715
  785
  858
  934
  1,013
  1,096
  1,181
  1,270
  1,363
  1,459
  1,559
  1,663
  1,771
  1,884
  2,001
  2,123
  2,250
  2,382
  2,520
  2,664
  2,815
  2,972
  3,136
  3,307
  3,487
  3,674
  3,871
  4,076
  4,291
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.130
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.128
  1.129
  1.129
  1.130
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
Average production assets, $m
  245
  270
  297
  324
  353
  383
  414
  447
  480
  515
  552
  590
  629
  670
  712
  757
  803
  851
  901
  953
  1,008
  1,065
  1,124
  1,186
  1,251
  1,319
  1,390
  1,464
  1,542
  1,623
Working capital, $m
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  201
  215
  231
  246
  263
  280
  298
  316
  335
  356
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  523
  551
  581
  612
  644
  678
Total debt, $m
  274
  325
  377
  432
  489
  549
  611
  675
  742
  812
  884
  959
  1,038
  1,119
  1,203
  1,292
  1,383
  1,479
  1,578
  1,682
  1,790
  1,904
  2,022
  2,145
  2,274
  2,409
  2,550
  2,698
  2,852
  3,014
Total liabilities, $m
  487
  538
  590
  645
  702
  762
  824
  888
  955
  1,025
  1,097
  1,172
  1,251
  1,332
  1,416
  1,504
  1,596
  1,692
  1,791
  1,895
  2,003
  2,117
  2,235
  2,358
  2,487
  2,622
  2,763
  2,911
  3,065
  3,227
Total equity, $m
  161
  177
  195
  213
  232
  251
  272
  293
  315
  338
  362
  387
  412
  439
  467
  496
  526
  558
  591
  625
  661
  698
  737
  778
  820
  865
  911
  960
  1,011
  1,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  648
  715
  785
  858
  934
  1,013
  1,096
  1,181
  1,270
  1,363
  1,459
  1,559
  1,663
  1,771
  1,883
  2,000
  2,122
  2,250
  2,382
  2,520
  2,664
  2,815
  2,972
  3,136
  3,307
  3,487
  3,674
  3,871
  4,076
  4,291
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.710
  1.830
  1.940
  2.030
  2.110
  2.180
  2.250
  2.310
  2.360
  2.400
  2.440
  2.480
  2.520
  2.550
  2.580
  2.600
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
  2.710
  2.730
  2.740
  2.760
  2.770
  2.790
  2.800
  2.810
  2.820
  2.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248
  0.248

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  92
  111
  131
  153
  175
  198
  223
  248
  274
  302
  344
  374
  405
  437
  471
  506
  542
  581
  620
  662
  706
  751
  799
  849
  901
  956
  1,013
  1,074
  1,137
  1,203
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  151
  174
  197
  222
  248
  274
  302
  331
  361
  388
  421
  455
  490
  527
  566
  606
  648
  692
  738
  786
  836
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,061
  1,124
  1,190
  1,259
  1,332
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  120
  141
  163
  186
  210
  235
  261
  289
  317
  347
  373
  405
  438
  473
  509
  547
  587
  628
  671
  716
  763
  812
  863
  917
  973
  1,032
  1,094
  1,159
  1,227
  1,298
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  96
  115
  135
  155
  177
  200
  223
  248
  274
  295
  323
  352
  382
  414
  446
  481
  516
  553
  592
  633
  675
  719
  766
  814
  865
  918
  974
  1,033
  1,094
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  47
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  125
  146
  167
  190
  213
  237
  262
  288
  315
  343
  368
  398
  430
  464
  498
  534
  572
  612
  653
  696
  741
  788
  838
  889
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,256
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  109
  130
  150
  171
  194
  217
  241
  267
  293
  320
  344
  374
  405
  437
  470
  505
  542
  580
  620
  662
  705
  751
  799
  849
  901
  956
  1,013
  1,073
  1,136
  1,202
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  104
  116
  126
  134
  140
  144
  147
  147
  145
  141
  134
  127
  119
  110
  100
  89
  79
  68
  58
  49
  40
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Core Laboratories N.V. provides reservoir description, production enhancement and reservoir management services to the oil and gas industry. The Company operates through three segments: Reservoir Description, Production Enhancement and Reservoir Management. The Reservoir Description segment encompasses the characterization of petroleum reservoir rock, fluid and gas samples. It provides analytical and field services to characterize properties of crude oil and petroleum products to the oil and gas industry. The Production Enhancement segment includes products and services relating to reservoir well completions, perforations, stimulations and production. It provides integrated diagnostic services to evaluate the effectiveness of well completions. The Reservoir Management segment combines and integrates information from reservoir description and production enhancement services to increase production and recovery of oil and gas from its clients' reservoirs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Core Laboratories (CLB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.1
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 24.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 143%
Total Debt to Equity 143%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Return On Equity 104.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 233.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
EBITDA Margin 19%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Operating Margin 14.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Payout Ratio 148.4%

CLB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $659.809 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Core Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Core Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for CLB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Core Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Core Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $158 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Core Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Core Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLB are equal to 33.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Core Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLB is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $144.844 million for Core Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.213 million for Core Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Core Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Core Laboratories meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Jan-31-18 06:37PM  Associated Press]
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