Intrinsic value of Caladrius Biosciences - CLBS

Previous Close

$3.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$3.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.14

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  59.09
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  35
  36
  37
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  644
  676
  708
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  67
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  644
  676
  708
Operating income, $m
  -31
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -356
  -373
  -390
  -408
  -428
  -448
  -469
  -492
  -515
  -540
  -566
  -594
EBITDA, $m
  -28
  -183
  -187
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -217
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -587
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -291
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -528
  -553
  -581
  -609
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -291
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -528
  -553
  -581
  -609

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  54
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.745
  0.750
  0.755
  0.740
  0.750
  0.755
  0.745
  0.737
  0.746
  0.738
  0.746
  0.742
  0.739
  0.746
  0.743
  0.744
  0.741
  0.741
  0.750
  0.742
  0.742
  0.743
  0.745
  0.748
  0.750
  0.746
  0.742
  0.746
  0.743
  0.741
  0.747
Average production assets, $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Working capital, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total debt, $m
  6
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  96
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
Total equity, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  54
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  89
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  147
  154
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.200
  0.030
  0.230
  0.450
  0.680
  0.930
  1.180
  1.440
  1.700
  1.960
  2.220
  2.480
  2.730
  2.980
  3.230
  3.460
  3.700
  3.920
  4.140
  4.350
  4.560
  4.750
  4.940
  5.130
  5.300
  5.470
  5.630
  5.780
  5.930
  6.070
  6.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.043
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -291
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -528
  -553
  -581
  -609
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  -183
  -187
  -192
  -197
  -204
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -376
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -574
  -603
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -183
  -187
  -192
  -197
  -204
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -575
  -603
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -221
  -229
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -332
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -611
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  -2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  188
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  267
  279
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  504
  528
  554
  581
  610
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  186
  190
  195
  201
  207
  215
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
  509
  534
  560
  587
  616
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -188
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -504
  -528
  -554
  -581
  -610
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -184
  -188
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -211
  -219
  -227
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -604
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -176
  -172
  -168
  -163
  -159
  -153
  -148
  -142
  -135
  -128
  -121
  -113
  -105
  -97
  -88
  -80
  -72
  -63
  -55
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  6.2
  0.9
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Caladrius Biosciences, Inc. is a cell therapy development company with product candidates in development based on multiple technology platforms and targeting autoimmune and cardiology indications. The Company's lead product candidate, CLBS03, is a T regulatory cell (Treg) clinical Phase II therapy targeting adolescents with recent-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) using the patient's own numerically and functionally enhanced Tregs. This therapy is based on a platform technology for immunomodulation. The Company is focused on commencing The Sanford Project: T-Rex Study, a Phase II prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial to evaluate its Treg product candidate, CLBS03, in adolescents with recent onset T1D. The Company plans to develop its product candidate, CLBS12, in Japan, which is an autologous therapy that derives its cells from peripheral blood through apheresis.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 59.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.8
LT Debt to Equity 40%
Total Debt to Equity 120%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -55.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -64.5%
Return On Total Capital -126.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.1%
Return On Equity -227.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -171%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
EBITDA Margin -80%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -267.6%
Operating Margin -91.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -310.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -94.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -283.6%
Net Profit Margin -94.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -256%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $35 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Caladrius Biosciences. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Caladrius Biosciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Caladrius Biosciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Caladrius Biosciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 617.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 17.4% for Caladrius Biosciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Caladrius Biosciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLBS are equal to 28.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Caladrius Biosciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLBS is equal to 2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5 million for Caladrius Biosciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.912 million for Caladrius Biosciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Caladrius Biosciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Caladrius Biosciences Reports 2017 Third Quarter Results   [Nov-09-17 04:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Type 1 Diabetes May Soon Meet Its Match   [Sep-08-17 01:10PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Caladrius Biosciences Reports 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Aug-10-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Caladrius Biosciences Joins Russell Microcap® Index   [Jun-26-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News for March 20, 2017   [Mar-20-17 10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Caladrius Biosciences Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Split   [Jul-27-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of CLBS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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