Intrinsic value of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. - CLDX

Previous Close

$2.53

  Intrinsic Value

$2.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

Previous close

$2.53

 
Intrinsic value

$2.37

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLDX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Variable operating expenses, $m
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  330
  346
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  330
  346
Operating income, $m
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -313
EBITDA, $m
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.132
  0.128
  0.138
  0.134
  0.129
  0.138
  0.133
  0.138
  0.134
  0.129
  0.133
  0.138
  0.133
  0.136
  0.138
  0.132
  0.133
  0.135
  0.136
  0.136
  0.137
  0.137
  0.136
  0.135
  0.135
  0.133
  0.132
  0.135
  0.133
  0.135
Average production assets, $m
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
Total liabilities, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Total equity, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  119
  124
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -310
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -323
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -16
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -305
  -319
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -15
  -92
  -89
  -87
  -84
  -82
  -79
  -75
  -72
  -68
  -64
  -60
  -56
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -38
  -34
  -29
  -25
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  23.2
  5.4
  1.2
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of several immunotherapy technologies for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. Its lead drug Rintega (also referred to as rindopepimut and CDX-110) is a therapeutic vaccine, which is meant for the treatment of glioblastoma patients. Its Glembatumumab vedotin (also referred to as CDX-011) is meant for the treatment of metastatic melanoma. Its Varlilumab (also referred to as CDX-1127) is an immune modulating antibody. Its earlier stage drug candidates in clinical development include CDX-1401, which is a targeted immunotherapeutic aimed at antigen presenting cells (APC) for cancer indications and CDX-301, which is an immune cell mobilizing agent and dendritic cell growth factor. It includes a multi-faceted tumor-associated macrophage (TAM) program. The Company's pipeline also includes CDX-0158 and CDX-3379, which are humanized monoclonal antibodies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 43.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.6%
Return On Total Capital -46.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.1%
Return On Equity -46.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin -1785.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2373.6%
Operating Margin -1900%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2516.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -1842.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2444.3%
Net Profit Margin -1842.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2444.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLDX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLDX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLDX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLDX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLDX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1060%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLDX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Celldex Therapeutics, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLDX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLDX are equal to 600.6%.

Life of production assets of 29.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLDX is equal to -75.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $124.06 million for Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.441 million for Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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