Intrinsic value of Clearfield - CLFD

Previous Close

$12.17

  Intrinsic Value

$8.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

Previous close

$12.17

 
Intrinsic value

$8.46

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  285
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
  433
  456
  479
Variable operating expenses, $m
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  367
  386
  406
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  367
  386
  406
Operating income, $m
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
EBITDA, $m
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Net income, $m
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.500
  1.492
  1.500
  1.507
  1.493
  1.513
  1.512
  1.511
  1.505
  1.500
  1.496
  1.500
  1.504
  1.504
  1.503
  1.500
  1.497
  1.500
  1.503
  1.508
  1.500
  1.502
  1.505
  1.504
  1.502
  1.504
  1.500
  1.503
  1.505
  1.502
Average production assets, $m
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Working capital, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
Total liabilities, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
Total equity, $m
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  129
  136
  144
  153
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  53
  59
  63
  69
  75
  80
  87
  92
  99
  106
  112
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  304
  319
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  24
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  23
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Clearfield, Inc. manufactures, markets and sells fiber management and enclosure platform that consolidates, distributes and protects fiber as it moves from the inside plant to the outside plant and all the way to the home, business and cell site. The Company's products include Clearview Cassette, which is the building block of its product platform; Connectivity and Optical Components; FieldSmart, which is a series of panels, cabinets, wall boxes and other enclosures that house the Clearview components; FieldShield, which is a fiber delivery method for broadband deployment; CraftSmart, which is a line of optical protection field enclosures, and Cable Assemblies. Its products are sold across broadband service providers, including traditional telephone companies, competitive local exchange carriers, multiple service operators (cable television), wireless service providers, and municipal-owned utilities that utilize fiber in their service offerings to businesses and consumers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clearfield (CLFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28
Price to Free Cash Flow 42
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $73.947619 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clearfield. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Clearfield. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clearfield, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clearfield.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Clearfield.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clearfield. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLFD are equal to 9.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clearfield operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLFD is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $64.52512 million for Clearfield - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.66 million for Clearfield is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clearfield at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Clearfield: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Clearfield Inc (NASDAQ:CLFD)?   [Sep-24-18 11:29AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ What Does Clearfield Incs (NASDAQ:CLFD) PE Ratio Tell You?   [Aug-23-18 03:01PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Clearfield had a poor fiscal year, but its CEO was perfectly paid   [Aug-02-18 01:48PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Clearfield Reports Fiscal Third Quarter 2018 Results   [Jul-26-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Clearfield: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Preview: Clearfield's Earnings   [Apr-25-18 03:35PM  Benzinga]
▶ Clearfield Appoints Rosa Burns as New Chief Revenue Officer   [Apr-24-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CommScope, Clearfield Agree to Patent Lawsuit Settlement   [Feb-22-18 09:10AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Clearfield posts 1Q profit   [Jan-26-18 06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : December 4, 2017   [Dec-04-17 10:56AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Clearfield posts 4Q profit   [Nov-09-17 06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Clearfield, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Will Clearfield Incs (CLFD) Earnings Grow In The Year Ahead?   [Nov-08-17 09:29AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : August 15, 2017   [Aug-15-17 03:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Clearfield posts 3Q profit   [Jul-28-17 01:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Clearfield Reports Fiscal Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-27-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Clearfield Quadruples Manufacturing Capacity in Mexico   [Jul-25-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Clearfield posts 2Q profit   [Apr-27-17 09:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Clearfield Awarded NEBS Level 3 Certification   [Apr-25-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clearfield, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]

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