Intrinsic value of CoreLogic - CLGX

Previous Close

$37.03

  Intrinsic Value

$46.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+25%

Previous close

$37.03

 
Intrinsic value

$46.26

 
Up/down potential

+25%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLGX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.00
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  1,907
  1,968
  2,034
  2,106
  2,184
  2,267
  2,357
  2,452
  2,553
  2,661
  2,776
  2,897
  3,026
  3,161
  3,305
  3,457
  3,617
  3,786
  3,963
  4,151
  4,348
  4,556
  4,775
  5,005
  5,248
  5,503
  5,771
  6,052
  6,349
  6,660
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,158
  1,185
  1,215
  1,247
  1,282
  1,319
  1,359
  1,401
  1,447
  1,495
  1,241
  1,295
  1,352
  1,413
  1,477
  1,545
  1,616
  1,692
  1,771
  1,855
  1,943
  2,036
  2,134
  2,237
  2,345
  2,459
  2,579
  2,705
  2,837
  2,977
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  503
  514
  525
  537
  549
  561
  573
  586
  598
  612
  625
  639
  653
  667
  682
  697
  712
  728
  744
  760
  777
  794
  812
  829
  848
  866
  885
  905
  925
  945
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,661
  1,699
  1,740
  1,784
  1,831
  1,880
  1,932
  1,987
  2,045
  2,107
  1,866
  1,934
  2,005
  2,080
  2,159
  2,242
  2,328
  2,420
  2,515
  2,615
  2,720
  2,830
  2,946
  3,066
  3,193
  3,325
  3,464
  3,610
  3,762
  3,922
Operating income, $m
  246
  269
  294
  323
  354
  388
  425
  465
  508
  555
  910
  963
  1,020
  1,081
  1,146
  1,215
  1,288
  1,366
  1,448
  1,535
  1,628
  1,726
  1,829
  1,939
  2,055
  2,177
  2,306
  2,442
  2,586
  2,738
EBITDA, $m
  655
  681
  710
  743
  778
  817
  858
  904
  953
  1,005
  1,061
  1,121
  1,185
  1,253
  1,326
  1,403
  1,485
  1,571
  1,664
  1,761
  1,864
  1,973
  2,089
  2,211
  2,340
  2,476
  2,620
  2,771
  2,932
  3,100
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  95
  100
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  178
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  301
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  422
  446
  471
  498
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  169
  189
  211
  236
  263
  293
  325
  360
  397
  743
  786
  832
  881
  934
  990
  1,050
  1,113
  1,180
  1,252
  1,327
  1,407
  1,492
  1,582
  1,677
  1,778
  1,884
  1,997
  2,115
  2,241
Tax expense, $m
  41
  46
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  201
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  283
  300
  319
  338
  358
  380
  403
  427
  453
  480
  509
  539
  571
  605
Net income, $m
  111
  123
  138
  154
  172
  192
  214
  237
  263
  290
  542
  574
  607
  643
  682
  723
  766
  812
  862
  914
  969
  1,027
  1,089
  1,155
  1,224
  1,298
  1,376
  1,458
  1,544
  1,636

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,200
  4,334
  4,481
  4,639
  4,810
  4,994
  5,191
  5,401
  5,624
  5,862
  6,114
  6,381
  6,664
  6,964
  7,280
  7,614
  7,966
  8,338
  8,730
  9,143
  9,578
  10,036
  10,518
  11,025
  11,559
  12,120
  12,710
  13,331
  13,984
  14,670
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,200
  4,334
  4,481
  4,639
  4,810
  4,994
  5,191
  5,401
  5,624
  5,862
  6,114
  6,381
  6,664
  6,964
  7,280
  7,614
  7,966
  8,338
  8,730
  9,143
  9,578
  10,036
  10,518
  11,025
  11,559
  12,120
  12,710
  13,331
  13,984
  14,670
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
Average production assets, $m
  2,000
  2,064
  2,134
  2,209
  2,291
  2,378
  2,472
  2,572
  2,678
  2,792
  2,912
  3,039
  3,174
  3,316
  3,467
  3,626
  3,794
  3,971
  4,158
  4,354
  4,561
  4,780
  5,009
  5,251
  5,505
  5,772
  6,053
  6,349
  6,660
  6,986
Working capital, $m
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -295
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -362
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -597
  -626
  -656
  -688
  -721
  -757
  -794
  -833
Total debt, $m
  1,846
  1,948
  2,058
  2,177
  2,306
  2,445
  2,593
  2,751
  2,919
  3,098
  3,288
  3,489
  3,702
  3,928
  4,166
  4,417
  4,683
  4,963
  5,258
  5,569
  5,896
  6,241
  6,604
  6,986
  7,388
  7,810
  8,255
  8,722
  9,214
  9,730
Total liabilities, $m
  3,162
  3,264
  3,374
  3,493
  3,622
  3,761
  3,909
  4,067
  4,235
  4,414
  4,604
  4,805
  5,018
  5,244
  5,482
  5,733
  5,999
  6,279
  6,574
  6,885
  7,212
  7,557
  7,920
  8,302
  8,704
  9,126
  9,571
  10,038
  10,530
  11,046
Total equity, $m
  1,037
  1,071
  1,107
  1,146
  1,188
  1,234
  1,282
  1,334
  1,389
  1,448
  1,510
  1,576
  1,646
  1,720
  1,798
  1,881
  1,968
  2,060
  2,156
  2,258
  2,366
  2,479
  2,598
  2,723
  2,855
  2,994
  3,139
  3,293
  3,454
  3,623
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,199
  4,335
  4,481
  4,639
  4,810
  4,995
  5,191
  5,401
  5,624
  5,862
  6,114
  6,381
  6,664
  6,964
  7,280
  7,614
  7,967
  8,339
  8,730
  9,143
  9,578
  10,036
  10,518
  11,025
  11,559
  12,120
  12,710
  13,331
  13,984
  14,669
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.780
  1.820
  1.860
  1.900
  1.940
  1.980
  2.020
  2.060
  2.100
  2.140
  2.180
  2.210
  2.250
  2.280
  2.320
  2.350
  2.380
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.490
  2.520
  2.540
  2.570
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  111
  123
  138
  154
  172
  192
  214
  237
  263
  290
  542
  574
  607
  643
  682
  723
  766
  812
  862
  914
  969
  1,027
  1,089
  1,155
  1,224
  1,298
  1,376
  1,458
  1,544
  1,636
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  409
  413
  416
  420
  424
  429
  434
  439
  444
  450
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
Funds from operations, $m
  520
  536
  554
  574
  597
  621
  647
  676
  707
  740
  693
  731
  772
  815
  861
  911
  963
  1,018
  1,077
  1,139
  1,205
  1,275
  1,349
  1,427
  1,510
  1,597
  1,689
  1,787
  1,889
  1,998
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  527
  544
  562
  583
  606
  631
  659
  688
  720
  754
  707
  746
  788
  832
  879
  929
  983
  1,039
  1,099
  1,163
  1,230
  1,301
  1,376
  1,456
  1,540
  1,629
  1,723
  1,822
  1,926
  2,037
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -226
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -345
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -433
  -454
  -478
  -502
  -526
  -552
  -580
  -610
  -640
  -672
Free cash flow, $m
  367
  376
  386
  397
  410
  425
  442
  460
  480
  502
  443
  468
  496
  525
  557
  591
  627
  666
  707
  751
  797
  847
  899
  955
  1,014
  1,076
  1,142
  1,213
  1,287
  1,365
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  93
  101
  110
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  265
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  467
  491
  517
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  93
  101
  110
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  265
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  467
  491
  517
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  460
  477
  496
  517
  539
  564
  590
  618
  648
  681
  633
  669
  709
  751
  795
  842
  892
  946
  1,002
  1,062
  1,125
  1,191
  1,262
  1,337
  1,416
  1,499
  1,587
  1,680
  1,778
  1,882
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  430
  444
  460
  478
  497
  518
  541
  566
  593
  622
  570
  603
  639
  677
  717
  760
  805
  854
  905
  960
  1,017
  1,078
  1,143
  1,211
  1,284
  1,360
  1,441
  1,527
  1,617
  1,712
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  398
  376
  355
  332
  309
  285
  261
  236
  212
  188
  144
  125
  107
  90
  75
  61
  49
  38
  30
  22
  16
  12
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CoreLogic, Inc. is a provider of property information, analytics and data-enabled services. The Company provides detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, property risk and replacement cost, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. Its segments include Property Intelligence (PI), Risk Management and Work Flow (RMW), and Corporate. The Property Intelligence segment owns or licenses real property, mortgage and consumer information, which includes loan information, property sales and characteristic information, property risk and replacement cost, natural hazard data, geospatial data, parcel maps and mortgage-backed securities information. The RMW segment owns or licenses real property information, mortgage information and consumer information, which includes loan information, property sales and characteristic information, natural hazard data, parcel maps, employment verification, criminal records and eviction records.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CoreLogic (CLGX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 149.3%
Total Debt to Equity 159.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 33.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLGX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLGX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1851.117 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CoreLogic. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CoreLogic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLGX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for CLGX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CoreLogic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CoreLogic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLGX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $492 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLGX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CoreLogic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CoreLogic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLGX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLGX are equal to 104.9%.

Life of production assets of 19.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CoreLogic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLGX is equal to -12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1007.876 million for CoreLogic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.944 million for CoreLogic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CoreLogic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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