Intrinsic value of Cellectis S.A. - CLLS

Previous Close

$15.21

  Intrinsic Value

$2.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$15.21

 
Intrinsic value

$2.70

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  128
  131
  133
  136
  139
  142
  146
  149
  152
  155
  159
  162
  166
  170
  173
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
  206
  211
  215
  220
  225
  230
  235
  240
Total operating expenses, $m
  147
  151
  153
  157
  160
  164
  169
  173
  176
  180
  184
  188
  193
  198
  202
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  242
  248
  255
  261
  268
  276
  283
  291
  298
Operating income, $m
  -122
  -124
  -127
  -130
  -132
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -147
  -149
  -152
  -155
  -158
  -161
  -165
  -168
  -171
  -175
  -178
  -182
  -186
  -189
  -193
  -197
  -201
  -204
  -208
  -212
  -217
EBITDA, $m
  -118
  -121
  -123
  -126
  -129
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -140
  -143
  -146
  -149
  -152
  -155
  -158
  -161
  -164
  -167
  -171
  -174
  -177
  -181
  -184
  -188
  -191
  -195
  -198
  -202
  -206
  -209
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  9
  -14
  -2
  13
  29
  47
  67
  89
  112
  137
  165
  193
  224
  257
  292
  329
  369
  410
  454
  501
  550
  602
  656
  714
  775
  839
  906
  977
  1,051
  1,130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -130
  -110
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -205
  -230
  -256
  -284
  -313
  -345
  -379
  -415
  -454
  -494
  -537
  -582
  -629
  -679
  -732
  -787
  -846
  -907
  -972
  -1,039
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,264
  -1,346
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -130
  -110
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -205
  -230
  -256
  -284
  -313
  -345
  -379
  -415
  -454
  -494
  -537
  -582
  -629
  -679
  -732
  -787
  -846
  -907
  -972
  -1,039
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,264
  -1,346

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  112
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  133
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  112
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  133
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.232
  0.228
  0.231
  0.231
  0.226
  0.227
  0.226
  0.226
  0.224
  0.230
  0.227
  0.231
  0.228
  0.230
  0.227
  0.228
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.226
  0.229
  0.227
  0.228
  0.229
  0.229
  0.228
  0.228
  0.229
  0.227
  0.228
Average production assets, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Total debt, $m
  -3
  0
  2
  5
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  165
  178
  191
  205
  220
Total liabilities, $m
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  124
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  309
  324
Total equity, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  112
  114
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  138
  142
  148
  153
  160
  167
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.230
  -0.030
  0.200
  0.440
  0.690
  0.950
  1.220
  1.480
  1.750
  2.020
  2.290
  2.550
  2.810
  3.060
  3.300
  3.540
  3.770
  4.000
  4.220
  4.430
  4.630
  4.830
  5.010
  5.190
  5.370
  5.530
  5.690
  5.840
  5.990
  6.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -130
  -110
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -205
  -230
  -256
  -284
  -313
  -345
  -379
  -415
  -454
  -494
  -537
  -582
  -629
  -679
  -732
  -787
  -846
  -907
  -972
  -1,039
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,264
  -1,346
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  -127
  -106
  -122
  -139
  -158
  -179
  -201
  -226
  -252
  -280
  -310
  -342
  -376
  -412
  -450
  -490
  -533
  -578
  -625
  -675
  -727
  -782
  -841
  -902
  -966
  -1,033
  -1,104
  -1,179
  -1,257
  -1,339
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -126
  -106
  -121
  -139
  -158
  -178
  -201
  -225
  -251
  -280
  -310
  -341
  -375
  -411
  -449
  -489
  -532
  -577
  -624
  -674
  -726
  -781
  -839
  -900
  -964
  -1,032
  -1,103
  -1,177
  -1,255
  -1,337
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  -129
  -109
  -124
  -141
  -160
  -181
  -204
  -228
  -255
  -283
  -313
  -345
  -379
  -415
  -453
  -494
  -536
  -581
  -629
  -679
  -732
  -787
  -845
  -907
  -971
  -1,039
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,263
  -1,346
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  136
  110
  126
  143
  162
  183
  206
  230
  257
  285
  314
  346
  380
  416
  454
  495
  538
  583
  630
  680
  733
  788
  847
  908
  973
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,265
  1,348
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  132
  112
  129
  146
  165
  187
  210
  234
  262
  290
  319
  352
  386
  422
  461
  502
  546
  591
  638
  689
  742
  798
  857
  919
  985
  1,053
  1,125
  1,201
  1,279
  1,363
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -136
  -110
  -126
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -206
  -230
  -257
  -285
  -314
  -346
  -380
  -416
  -454
  -495
  -538
  -583
  -630
  -680
  -733
  -788
  -847
  -908
  -973
  -1,041
  -1,112
  -1,187
  -1,265
  -1,348
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  466
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  332
  -106
  -121
  -138
  -157
  -178
  -200
  -224
  -250
  -278
  -308
  -339
  -373
  -409
  -447
  -487
  -529
  -573
  -620
  -670
  -722
  -777
  -835
  -896
  -959
  -1,027
  -1,097
  -1,171
  -1,249
  -1,331
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  319
  -97
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -144
  -146
  -146
  -145
  -142
  -137
  -131
  -124
  -115
  -106
  -96
  -85
  -75
  -64
  -55
  -46
  -37
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -14
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  4.7
  0.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Cellectis SA is a France-based company active in the field of genome engineering and genomic surgery. The Company specializes in the research, development and commercialization of rational genome engineering technologies. It has developed an expertise in combining meganucleases with engineered targeting Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) matrices into Meganuclease Recombination Systems (MRS), used for gene excision, correction or replacement. The Company also offers rational inverse genetics and targeting recombination tools. Cellectis SA markets its technologies mainly for use in the research field, in pharmaceutical drug discovery programs, in the agronomics, bioproduction and biotherapeutics fields. Cellectis SA operates several subsidiaries. The Company operates in France and the United States, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cellectis S.A. (CLLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1175%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 119.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 154
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Return On Total Capital -22.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Return On Equity -22.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
EBITDA Margin -114.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.3%
Operating Margin -118.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -118.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.8%
Net Profit Margin -118.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $25 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cellectis S.A.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cellectis S.A.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cellectis S.A., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cellectis S.A..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $125 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 550% for Cellectis S.A..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cellectis S.A.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLLS are equal to 43.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cellectis S.A. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLLS is equal to -49.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $470.46091954 million for Cellectis S.A. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.430 million for Cellectis S.A. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cellectis S.A. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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