Intrinsic value of Clean Energy Fuels - CLNE

Previous Close

$2.34

  Intrinsic Value

$0.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$2.34

 
Intrinsic value

$0.44

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLNE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  348
  356
  366
  376
  387
  400
  413
  428
  444
  461
  479
  499
  519
  541
  565
  590
  616
  643
  673
  704
  736
  771
  807
  845
  885
  928
  972
  1,019
  1,069
  1,121
Variable operating expenses, $m
  364
  372
  381
  392
  403
  416
  430
  445
  462
  479
  491
  511
  532
  555
  578
  604
  631
  659
  689
  721
  754
  789
  826
  866
  907
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,094
  1,148
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  364
  372
  381
  392
  403
  416
  430
  445
  462
  479
  491
  511
  532
  555
  578
  604
  631
  659
  689
  721
  754
  789
  826
  866
  907
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,094
  1,148
Operating income, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
EBITDA, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  690
  706
  724
  744
  767
  792
  819
  848
  879
  913
  949
  988
  1,029
  1,072
  1,118
  1,167
  1,219
  1,274
  1,332
  1,393
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,674
  1,753
  1,837
  1,925
  2,018
  2,116
  2,219
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  690
  706
  724
  744
  767
  792
  819
  848
  879
  913
  949
  988
  1,029
  1,072
  1,118
  1,167
  1,219
  1,274
  1,332
  1,393
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,674
  1,753
  1,837
  1,925
  2,018
  2,116
  2,219
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.504
  0.504
  0.506
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.504
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.504
  0.505
  0.505
  0.506
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
Average production assets, $m
  484
  495
  508
  522
  538
  556
  575
  595
  617
  641
  666
  693
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  894
  935
  978
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,352
  1,417
  1,485
  1,558
Working capital, $m
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
Total debt, $m
  265
  271
  277
  285
  293
  302
  312
  323
  335
  347
  360
  375
  390
  406
  423
  441
  460
  480
  502
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  657
  688
  721
  755
  791
  829
Total liabilities, $m
  255
  260
  267
  275
  283
  292
  302
  313
  324
  337
  350
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  563
  590
  618
  647
  678
  710
  745
  781
  819
Total equity, $m
  435
  445
  457
  470
  484
  500
  517
  535
  555
  576
  599
  623
  649
  677
  706
  737
  769
  804
  841
  879
  920
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,274
  1,335
  1,400
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  690
  705
  724
  745
  767
  792
  819
  848
  879
  913
  949
  987
  1,029
  1,073
  1,119
  1,168
  1,219
  1,274
  1,333
  1,393
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,674
  1,753
  1,837
  1,925
  2,019
  2,116
  2,219
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -221
  -232
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  72
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
Discount rate, %
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.3
  85.0
  78.1
  71.6
  65.6
  60.0
  54.9
  50.1
  45.7
  41.7
  38.3
  35.2
  32.4
  29.7
  27.2
  25.0
  22.9
  21.0
  19.2
  17.6
  16.1
  14.7
  13.5
  12.3
  11.2
  10.3
  9.4
  8.6
  7.8
  7.2

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Clean Energy) is a provider of natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets in the United States and Canada. The Company is engaged in supplying compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewable natural gas (RNG) for light, medium and heavy-duty vehicles, and providing operation and maintenance (O&M) services for natural gas fueling stations. The Company designs, builds, operates and maintains fueling stations; manufactures, sells and services non-lubricated natural gas fueling compressors and other equipment used in CNG stations and LNG stations; offers assessment, design and modification solutions to provide operators with code-compliant service and maintenance facilities for natural gas vehicle fleets, and transports and sells CNG and LNG to industrial and institutional energy users having no direct access to natural gas pipelines, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -28.4
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 65.2%
Total Debt to Equity 66.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -8%
Return On Equity -3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.6%
Net Profit Margin -3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.6%
Effective Tax Rate -16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLNE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLNE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $341.599 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clean Energy Fuels. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Clean Energy Fuels. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLNE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for CLNE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clean Energy Fuels, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clean Energy Fuels.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLNE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLNE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Clean Energy Fuels.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clean Energy Fuels. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLNE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLNE are equal to 139%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clean Energy Fuels operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLNE is equal to 18.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $426.99 million for Clean Energy Fuels - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 203.464 million for Clean Energy Fuels is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clean Energy Fuels at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Clean Energy Fuels: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Gas Demand Is Expected to Increase Rapidly   [Oct-10-18 06:16PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Swap Your Tesla Shares for Clean Energy Fuels   [Sep-28-18 02:36PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 3 Top Energy Stocks to Buy in August   [Aug-11-18 07:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Stock Is Up 10% Today   [Aug-09-18 08:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Clean Energy Fuels: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Shares Plunged 10.2% Today   [Jul-09-18 03:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp's Shares Plunged 18% Today   [Jul-05-18 09:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Put Tesla's Returns to Shame   [Jun-16-18 08:46AM  Motley Fool]
▶ An International Energy Bonanza   [May-22-18 11:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Clean Energy Fuels: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp Shares Jumped 19% in March   [Apr-05-18 02:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Should You Buy Clean Energy Fuels Corp (NASDAQ:CLNE) At $1.58?   [Mar-28-18 11:48AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Clean Energy Fuels reports 4Q loss   [Mar-13-18 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp's Shares Plunged 29% in 2017   [Jan-16-18 06:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Short Interest Trending Lower in Solar, Alt Energy Stocks   [Dec-28-17 07:40AM  24/7 Wall St.]

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