Intrinsic value of Town Sports International Holdings - CLUB

Previous Close

$7.58

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$7.58

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLUB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.30
  11.57
  10.91
  10.32
  9.79
  9.31
  8.88
  8.49
  8.14
  7.83
  7.55
  7.29
  7.06
  6.86
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  453
  505
  560
  618
  678
  742
  807
  876
  947
  1,021
  1,099
  1,179
  1,262
  1,348
  1,438
  1,532
  1,629
  1,730
  1,836
  1,946
  2,060
  2,180
  2,304
  2,435
  2,571
  2,713
  2,861
  3,016
  3,178
  3,348
Variable operating expenses, $m
  459
  512
  568
  627
  688
  752
  818
  888
  960
  1,035
  1,112
  1,193
  1,277
  1,365
  1,456
  1,550
  1,649
  1,751
  1,858
  1,969
  2,085
  2,206
  2,333
  2,464
  2,602
  2,746
  2,896
  3,053
  3,217
  3,389
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  459
  512
  568
  627
  688
  752
  818
  888
  960
  1,035
  1,112
  1,193
  1,277
  1,365
  1,456
  1,550
  1,649
  1,751
  1,858
  1,969
  2,085
  2,206
  2,333
  2,464
  2,602
  2,746
  2,896
  3,053
  3,217
  3,389
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
EBITDA, $m
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  13
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  266
  297
  329
  363
  398
  435
  474
  514
  556
  600
  645
  692
  741
  792
  845
  899
  957
  1,016
  1,078
  1,143
  1,210
  1,280
  1,353
  1,430
  1,509
  1,593
  1,680
  1,771
  1,866
  1,966
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  266
  297
  329
  363
  398
  435
  474
  514
  556
  600
  645
  692
  741
  792
  845
  899
  957
  1,016
  1,078
  1,143
  1,210
  1,280
  1,353
  1,430
  1,509
  1,593
  1,680
  1,771
  1,866
  1,966
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.703
  1.700
  1.702
  1.702
  1.704
  1.706
  1.703
  1.704
  1.703
  1.702
  1.704
  1.704
  1.703
  1.702
  1.702
  1.704
  1.702
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.702
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.704
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
Average production assets, $m
  184
  206
  228
  251
  276
  302
  329
  357
  386
  416
  447
  480
  514
  549
  585
  623
  663
  704
  747
  792
  839
  887
  938
  991
  1,046
  1,104
  1,164
  1,228
  1,294
  1,363
Working capital, $m
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
Total debt, $m
  121
  148
  178
  208
  240
  273
  308
  344
  382
  421
  462
  504
  548
  594
  642
  691
  743
  796
  852
  910
  970
  1,034
  1,099
  1,168
  1,240
  1,315
  1,394
  1,476
  1,561
  1,651
Total liabilities, $m
  239
  267
  296
  327
  359
  392
  427
  463
  501
  540
  581
  623
  667
  713
  760
  810
  861
  914
  970
  1,028
  1,089
  1,152
  1,218
  1,287
  1,358
  1,434
  1,512
  1,594
  1,680
  1,770
Total equity, $m
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  266
  297
  329
  363
  399
  436
  474
  514
  557
  600
  646
  692
  741
  792
  844
  900
  957
  1,016
  1,078
  1,142
  1,210
  1,280
  1,353
  1,430
  1,509
  1,593
  1,680
  1,771
  1,867
  1,967
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.540
  5.010
  5.400
  5.740
  6.030
  6.280
  6.500
  6.700
  6.870
  7.030
  7.160
  7.290
  7.400
  7.500
  7.600
  7.680
  7.760
  7.830
  7.900
  7.960
  8.020
  8.070
  8.120
  8.170
  8.220
  8.260
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -177
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -228
  -241
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
Free cash flow, $m
  -31
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -75
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  124
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  114
  121
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -124
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -107
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
Discount rate, %
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.06
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.71
  32.25
  33.86
  35.55
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
  45.38
  47.65
  50.03
  52.53
  55.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -94
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  29.7
  17.5
  10.2
  5.9
  3.4
  2.0
  1.1
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Town Sports International Holdings, Inc. is an owner and operator of fitness clubs in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States fitness. As of December 31, 2016, the Company, through its subsidiaries, operated 150 fitness clubs (clubs). It owned and operated a total of 102 clubs under the New York Sports Clubs (NYSC) brand name within a 120-mile radius of New York City as of December 31, 2016, including 35 locations in Manhattan. It owned and operated 28 clubs in the Boston region under its Boston Sports Clubs (BSC) brand name, 12 clubs (one of which is partly-owned) in the Washington, D.C. region under its Washington Sports Clubs (WSC) brand name and five clubs in the Philadelphia region under its Philadelphia Sports Clubs (PSC) brand name as of December 31, 2016. In addition, as of December 31, 2016, it owned and operated three clubs in Switzerland and partly-owned one club that operated under a different brand name in Washington, D.C.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Town Sports International Holdings (CLUB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.2
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book -2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 201.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -226.7%
Total Debt to Equity -229.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Equity -8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 55.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -158.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLUB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLUB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $403.042 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Town Sports International Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Town Sports International Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLUB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.4%, whose default value for CLUB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Town Sports International Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Town Sports International Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLUB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLUB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Town Sports International Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Town Sports International Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLUB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLUB are equal to 40.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Town Sports International Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLUB is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-77.957 million for Town Sports International Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.191 million for Town Sports International Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Town Sports International Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Town Sports: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Town Sports: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Town Sports: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-27-18 05:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Boutique Fitness Boom Attracts Wide Range of Investors   [Mar-24-18 08:14AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Town Sports posts 4Q profit   [Feb-28-18 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Draymond Green: Why I bought 20 Blink Fitness gyms   [02:18PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Town Sports reports 3Q loss   [Oct-27-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Town Sports reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 09:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] New York Sports Clubs Parent to Buy Lucille Roberts Gyms   [Jul-14-17 10:20AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Are you cheating on your gym membership?   [May-11-17 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Are you cheating on your gym membership?   [03:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Town Sports reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Town Sports reports 4Q loss   [Feb-16-17 04:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy as Q3 GDP Rises   [Dec-27-16 11:51AM  Zacks]

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