Intrinsic value of Commercial Metals - CMC

Previous Close

$21.83

  Intrinsic Value

$2.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

-67%

Previous close

$21.83

 
Intrinsic value

$2.80

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-67%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -22.97
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.42
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.28
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
Revenue, $m
  4,611
  5,197
  5,817
  6,470
  7,157
  7,876
  8,628
  9,413
  10,230
  11,081
  11,965
  12,885
  13,840
  14,833
  15,865
  16,938
  18,053
  19,214
  20,421
  21,678
  22,987
  24,352
  25,775
  27,259
  28,808
  30,425
  32,115
  33,880
  35,726
  37,656
  39,676
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,915
  5,501
  6,118
  6,767
  7,446
  8,157
  8,898
  9,670
  10,473
  11,308
  12,170
  13,073
  14,011
  14,986
  15,999
  17,053
  18,149
  19,289
  20,476
  21,713
  23,002
  24,346
  25,748
  27,211
  28,739
  30,335
  32,002
  33,746
  35,569
  37,476
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  95
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,454
  5,010
  5,599
  6,218
  6,870
  7,551
  8,265
  9,009
  9,783
  10,589
  11,427
  12,292
  13,198
  14,139
  15,117
  16,134
  17,191
  18,291
  19,434
  20,625
  21,865
  23,158
  24,506
  25,912
  27,379
  28,911
  30,512
  32,183
  33,932
  35,759
  37,671
Operating income, $m
  156
  186
  218
  252
  287
  325
  364
  405
  447
  491
  538
  592
  642
  694
  748
  804
  863
  924
  987
  1,053
  1,122
  1,194
  1,269
  1,347
  1,429
  1,514
  1,603
  1,697
  1,795
  1,897
  2,004
EBITDA, $m
  283
  327
  375
  425
  479
  534
  593
  654
  718
  784
  853
  924
  999
  1,077
  1,157
  1,241
  1,328
  1,419
  1,514
  1,612
  1,715
  1,822
  1,933
  2,050
  2,172
  2,299
  2,432
  2,571
  2,716
  2,868
  3,027
Interest expense (income), $m
  75
  48
  59
  72
  85
  98
  113
  128
  143
  159
  176
  194
  212
  231
  251
  271
  292
  315
  338
  362
  387
  413
  440
  468
  497
  528
  560
  594
  629
  665
  704
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  138
  159
  180
  203
  226
  251
  277
  304
  332
  361
  398
  430
  463
  497
  533
  570
  609
  649
  691
  735
  781
  829
  879
  931
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,166
  1,232
  1,301
Tax expense, $m
  12
  37
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  351
Net income, $m
  55
  101
  116
  131
  148
  165
  183
  202
  222
  242
  264
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  537
  570
  605
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  851
  899
  949

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  519
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,131
  2,944
  3,295
  3,666
  4,055
  4,462
  4,888
  5,333
  5,796
  6,278
  6,779
  7,300
  7,841
  8,404
  8,989
  9,597
  10,228
  10,886
  11,570
  12,282
  13,024
  13,797
  14,603
  15,444
  16,322
  17,238
  18,195
  19,196
  20,241
  21,335
  22,479
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,612
  2,944
  3,295
  3,666
  4,055
  4,462
  4,888
  5,333
  5,796
  6,278
  6,779
  7,300
  7,841
  8,404
  8,989
  9,597
  10,228
  10,886
  11,570
  12,282
  13,024
  13,797
  14,603
  15,444
  16,322
  17,238
  18,195
  19,196
  20,241
  21,335
  22,479
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
  1.765
Average production assets, $m
  904
  1,019
  1,140
  1,268
  1,403
  1,544
  1,691
  1,845
  2,005
  2,172
  2,345
  2,525
  2,713
  2,907
  3,110
  3,320
  3,538
  3,766
  4,003
  4,249
  4,506
  4,773
  5,052
  5,343
  5,646
  5,963
  6,294
  6,641
  7,002
  7,381
  7,776
Working capital, $m
  1,227
  1,148
  1,285
  1,430
  1,582
  1,741
  1,907
  2,080
  2,261
  2,449
  2,644
  2,847
  3,059
  3,278
  3,506
  3,743
  3,990
  4,246
  4,513
  4,791
  5,080
  5,382
  5,696
  6,024
  6,367
  6,724
  7,097
  7,488
  7,895
  8,322
  8,768
Total debt, $m
  1,071
  944
  1,139
  1,345
  1,562
  1,788
  2,025
  2,272
  2,530
  2,798
  3,076
  3,366
  3,667
  3,980
  4,305
  4,643
  4,994
  5,360
  5,740
  6,136
  6,548
  6,978
  7,426
  7,894
  8,382
  8,891
  9,424
  9,980
  10,561
  11,169
  11,805
Total liabilities, $m
  1,764
  1,637
  1,832
  2,038
  2,255
  2,481
  2,718
  2,965
  3,223
  3,491
  3,769
  4,059
  4,360
  4,673
  4,998
  5,336
  5,687
  6,053
  6,433
  6,829
  7,241
  7,671
  8,119
  8,587
  9,075
  9,584
  10,117
  10,673
  11,254
  11,862
  12,498
Total equity, $m
  1,367
  1,307
  1,463
  1,628
  1,800
  1,981
  2,170
  2,368
  2,573
  2,787
  3,010
  3,241
  3,482
  3,731
  3,991
  4,261
  4,541
  4,833
  5,137
  5,453
  5,783
  6,126
  6,484
  6,857
  7,247
  7,654
  8,079
  8,523
  8,987
  9,473
  9,981
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,131
  2,944
  3,295
  3,666
  4,055
  4,462
  4,888
  5,333
  5,796
  6,278
  6,779
  7,300
  7,842
  8,404
  8,989
  9,597
  10,228
  10,886
  11,570
  12,282
  13,024
  13,797
  14,603
  15,444
  16,322
  17,238
  18,196
  19,196
  20,241
  21,335
  22,479
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.783
  0.720
  0.780
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.325
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  55
  101
  116
  131
  148
  165
  183
  202
  222
  242
  264
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  537
  570
  605
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  851
  899
  949
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  127
  141
  157
  173
  191
  210
  229
  249
  270
  292
  315
  332
  357
  383
  409
  437
  466
  496
  527
  559
  593
  628
  665
  703
  743
  785
  828
  874
  921
  971
  1,023
Funds from operations, $m
  889
  242
  272
  305
  339
  375
  412
  452
  492
  535
  579
  623
  671
  721
  772
  826
  882
  940
  1,001
  1,064
  1,130
  1,198
  1,270
  1,345
  1,423
  1,504
  1,590
  1,679
  1,772
  1,870
  1,973
Change in working capital, $m
  302
  129
  137
  144
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  256
  267
  278
  289
  302
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  446
Cash from operations, $m
  587
  112
  135
  161
  187
  216
  246
  278
  312
  347
  383
  420
  460
  501
  544
  589
  635
  684
  734
  786
  840
  897
  955
  1,017
  1,080
  1,147
  1,216
  1,289
  1,365
  1,444
  1,526
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -119
  -134
  -150
  -167
  -185
  -203
  -223
  -243
  -264
  -286
  -309
  -332
  -357
  -383
  -409
  -437
  -466
  -496
  -527
  -559
  -593
  -628
  -665
  -703
  -743
  -785
  -828
  -874
  -921
  -971
New CAPEX, $m
  -163
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -237
  -246
  -257
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -396
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -176
  -234
  -256
  -278
  -302
  -326
  -350
  -377
  -403
  -431
  -459
  -489
  -519
  -552
  -585
  -619
  -656
  -693
  -733
  -773
  -816
  -860
  -907
  -956
  -1,007
  -1,060
  -1,116
  -1,174
  -1,236
  -1,299
  -1,367
Free cash flow, $m
  411
  -121
  -120
  -118
  -114
  -110
  -104
  -98
  -91
  -84
  -76
  -69
  -60
  -50
  -41
  -31
  -20
  -9
  2
  13
  25
  36
  49
  61
  74
  87
  101
  115
  129
  144
  159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -273
  186
  195
  206
  216
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -37
  45
  40
  33
  25
  16
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -323
  231
  235
  239
  241
  243
  243
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  87
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  138
  149
  166
  184
  203
  221
  241
  262
  284
  307
  331
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  497
  529
  562
  597
  633
  671
  710
  752
  796
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -146
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -373
  -390
  -407
  -425
  -444
  -464
  -486
  -508
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  206
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  170
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -48
  -39
  -30
  -20
  -11
  1
  13
  25
  37
  51
  64
  78
  93
  108
  123
  139
  155
  172
  190
  208
  227
  246
  266
  288
Discount rate, %
 
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  162
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -32
  -24
  -16
  -10
  -5
  0
  4
  8
  10
  12
  13
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.9
  96.4
  95.2
  94.4
  94.0
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8

Commercial Metals Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, recycles and markets steel and metal products, related materials and services through a network. The Company's Americas Recycling segment processes scrap metals for use as a raw material by manufacturers of new metal products. The Americas Mills segment consists of steel mills, commonly referred to as minimills that produce reinforcing bar (rebar), angles, flats and rounds. Its Americas Fabrication segment consists of its steel fabrication facilities that bend, weld, cut and fabricate steel, primarily rebar. Its International Mill segment consists of its mill, recycling and fabrication operations located in Poland. Its International Marketing and Distribution segment includes international operations for the sales, distribution and processing of primary and secondary metals, fabricated metals, semi-finished, long and flat steel products, and other industrial products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Commercial Metals (CMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.5
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -23%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 55.4%
Total Debt to Equity 78.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 14.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Payout Ratio 100%

CMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4611 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Commercial Metals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Commercial Metals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for CMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Commercial Metals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Commercial Metals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $93 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Commercial Metals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Commercial Metals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMC are equal to 19.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Commercial Metals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMC is equal to 22.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1367 million for Commercial Metals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 116.384 million for Commercial Metals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Commercial Metals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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Financial statements of CMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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