Intrinsic value of Cimpress N.V - CMPR

Previous Close

$78.97

  Intrinsic Value

$70.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$78.97

 
Intrinsic value

$70.32

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  2,808
  3,032
  3,265
  3,506
  3,758
  4,019
  4,290
  4,572
  4,866
  5,172
  5,490
  5,821
  6,166
  6,526
  6,902
  7,294
  7,703
  8,131
  8,578
  9,045
  9,533
  10,044
  10,579
  11,139
  11,725
  12,339
  12,983
  13,657
  14,363
  15,103
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,844
  1,987
  2,136
  2,290
  2,451
  2,618
  2,791
  2,972
  3,159
  3,355
  3,510
  3,722
  3,942
  4,172
  4,413
  4,663
  4,925
  5,198
  5,484
  5,783
  6,095
  6,422
  6,764
  7,122
  7,496
  7,889
  8,300
  8,731
  9,183
  9,656
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  810
  828
  846
  865
  884
  904
  923
  944
  965
  986
  1,007
  1,030
  1,052
  1,075
  1,099
  1,123
  1,148
  1,173
  1,199
  1,225
  1,252
  1,280
  1,308
  1,337
  1,366
  1,396
  1,427
  1,458
  1,491
  1,523
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,654
  2,815
  2,982
  3,155
  3,335
  3,522
  3,714
  3,916
  4,124
  4,341
  4,517
  4,752
  4,994
  5,247
  5,512
  5,786
  6,073
  6,371
  6,683
  7,008
  7,347
  7,702
  8,072
  8,459
  8,862
  9,285
  9,727
  10,189
  10,674
  11,179
Operating income, $m
  154
  217
  283
  351
  423
  497
  575
  657
  742
  831
  972
  1,070
  1,172
  1,278
  1,390
  1,507
  1,630
  1,759
  1,895
  2,037
  2,186
  2,343
  2,507
  2,681
  2,863
  3,054
  3,255
  3,467
  3,690
  3,924
EBITDA, $m
  329
  402
  478
  557
  640
  727
  817
  911
  1,009
  1,112
  1,219
  1,332
  1,449
  1,572
  1,701
  1,836
  1,977
  2,125
  2,281
  2,444
  2,615
  2,795
  2,983
  3,182
  3,390
  3,609
  3,840
  4,082
  4,336
  4,604
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  51
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  196
  208
  222
  236
  251
  266
  282
  299
  317
  335
  355
  375
  396
  419
Earnings before tax, $m
  103
  163
  221
  283
  347
  413
  483
  556
  632
  712
  844
  931
  1,023
  1,118
  1,219
  1,324
  1,435
  1,551
  1,673
  1,801
  1,935
  2,076
  2,225
  2,381
  2,546
  2,719
  2,901
  3,092
  3,293
  3,505
Tax expense, $m
  28
  44
  60
  76
  94
  112
  130
  150
  171
  192
  228
  251
  276
  302
  329
  358
  387
  419
  452
  486
  522
  561
  601
  643
  687
  734
  783
  835
  889
  946
Net income, $m
  75
  119
  162
  206
  253
  302
  353
  406
  462
  520
  616
  680
  747
  816
  890
  967
  1,047
  1,132
  1,221
  1,314
  1,413
  1,516
  1,624
  1,738
  1,858
  1,985
  2,117
  2,257
  2,404
  2,559

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,790
  1,932
  2,081
  2,235
  2,395
  2,561
  2,734
  2,914
  3,101
  3,296
  3,499
  3,710
  3,930
  4,160
  4,399
  4,649
  4,910
  5,182
  5,467
  5,765
  6,076
  6,402
  6,743
  7,099
  7,473
  7,864
  8,274
  8,704
  9,154
  9,626
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,790
  1,932
  2,081
  2,235
  2,395
  2,561
  2,734
  2,914
  3,101
  3,296
  3,499
  3,710
  3,930
  4,160
  4,399
  4,649
  4,910
  5,182
  5,467
  5,765
  6,076
  6,402
  6,743
  7,099
  7,473
  7,864
  8,274
  8,704
  9,154
  9,626
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
  1.569
Average production assets, $m
  986
  1,064
  1,146
  1,231
  1,319
  1,411
  1,506
  1,605
  1,708
  1,815
  1,927
  2,043
  2,164
  2,291
  2,423
  2,560
  2,704
  2,854
  3,011
  3,175
  3,346
  3,526
  3,713
  3,910
  4,116
  4,331
  4,557
  4,793
  5,041
  5,301
Working capital, $m
  -244
  -264
  -284
  -305
  -327
  -350
  -373
  -398
  -423
  -450
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -568
  -600
  -635
  -670
  -707
  -746
  -787
  -829
  -874
  -920
  -969
  -1,020
  -1,074
  -1,129
  -1,188
  -1,250
  -1,314
Total debt, $m
  982
  1,110
  1,244
  1,382
  1,526
  1,676
  1,832
  1,994
  2,162
  2,337
  2,520
  2,710
  2,908
  3,115
  3,330
  3,555
  3,790
  4,035
  4,291
  4,559
  4,839
  5,133
  5,439
  5,761
  6,097
  6,449
  6,818
  7,205
  7,610
  8,035
Total liabilities, $m
  1,611
  1,739
  1,873
  2,011
  2,155
  2,305
  2,461
  2,623
  2,791
  2,966
  3,149
  3,339
  3,537
  3,744
  3,959
  4,184
  4,419
  4,664
  4,920
  5,188
  5,468
  5,762
  6,068
  6,389
  6,726
  7,078
  7,447
  7,834
  8,239
  8,664
Total equity, $m
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  310
  330
  350
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  518
  547
  576
  608
  640
  674
  710
  747
  786
  827
  870
  915
  963
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,790
  1,932
  2,081
  2,234
  2,394
  2,561
  2,734
  2,914
  3,101
  3,296
  3,499
  3,710
  3,930
  4,160
  4,399
  4,649
  4,910
  5,182
  5,467
  5,764
  6,076
  6,402
  6,742
  7,099
  7,473
  7,864
  8,274
  8,704
  9,154
  9,627
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.490
  5.750
  5.980
  6.190
  6.370
  6.540
  6.700
  6.840
  6.970
  7.090
  7.200
  7.300
  7.400
  7.490
  7.570
  7.650
  7.720
  7.790
  7.850
  7.910
  7.960
  8.020
  8.070
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
  8.310
  8.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  119
  162
  206
  253
  302
  353
  406
  462
  520
  616
  680
  747
  816
  890
  967
  1,047
  1,132
  1,221
  1,314
  1,413
  1,516
  1,624
  1,738
  1,858
  1,985
  2,117
  2,257
  2,404
  2,559
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  247
  262
  277
  294
  311
  328
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  501
  528
  555
  584
  615
  646
  680
Funds from operations, $m
  250
  304
  357
  413
  471
  531
  594
  660
  729
  801
  863
  942
  1,024
  1,110
  1,200
  1,295
  1,394
  1,498
  1,607
  1,721
  1,842
  1,968
  2,100
  2,240
  2,386
  2,540
  2,702
  2,872
  3,051
  3,239
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
Cash from operations, $m
  269
  323
  377
  434
  492
  554
  618
  685
  755
  828
  891
  971
  1,054
  1,141
  1,233
  1,329
  1,430
  1,535
  1,646
  1,762
  1,884
  2,012
  2,147
  2,288
  2,437
  2,593
  2,758
  2,930
  3,112
  3,303
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -294
  -311
  -328
  -347
  -366
  -386
  -407
  -429
  -452
  -476
  -501
  -528
  -555
  -584
  -615
  -646
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -309
  -326
  -345
  -363
  -383
  -403
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -523
  -550
  -578
  -608
  -640
  -673
  -707
  -744
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -906
Free cash flow, $m
  76
  118
  159
  202
  246
  293
  342
  393
  446
  501
  546
  607
  671
  738
  808
  881
  958
  1,038
  1,123
  1,212
  1,306
  1,404
  1,507
  1,616
  1,730
  1,850
  1,977
  2,110
  2,250
  2,397
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  247
  293
  341
  391
  443
  497
  554
  614
  677
  729
  797
  869
  944
  1,023
  1,106
  1,193
  1,284
  1,379
  1,480
  1,586
  1,697
  1,814
  1,937
  2,066
  2,202
  2,346
  2,496
  2,655
  2,822
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  53
  232
  278
  325
  375
  426
  480
  536
  595
  657
  709
  776
  847
  921
  999
  1,081
  1,166
  1,256
  1,351
  1,450
  1,555
  1,665
  1,780
  1,901
  2,029
  2,163
  2,305
  2,453
  2,610
  2,774
Discount rate, %
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.49
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.40
  17.22
  18.08
  18.98
  19.93
  20.93
  21.98
  23.08
  24.23
  25.44
  26.71
  28.05
  29.45
  30.92
  32.47
  34.09
  35.80
  37.59
  39.47
  41.44
  43.51
  45.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  48
  186
  196
  200
  199
  192
  182
  168
  152
  134
  114
  96
  80
  64
  51
  39
  29
  21
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

Cimpress N.V., formerly Vistaprint N.V., is a technology driven company, which aggregates through the Internet, large volumes of small, individually customized orders for a spectrum of print, signage, apparel and similar products. The Company operates through segments, which include Vistaprint business unit, Upload and Print business units and All Other business units. The Vistaprint business unit segment represents its Vistaprint-branded Websites and its Webs-branded business. The Vistaprint business unit also sells standard business cards, and focuses on product categories, which include signage, marketing materials, and promotional products and apparel. The Upload and Print business units segment includes the druck.at, Exagroup, Easyflyer, Printdeal, Pixartprinting, Tradeprint, and WIRmachenDRUCK branded businesses. The All Other business units segment includes operations of its Albumprinter and Most of World business units and Corporate Solutions business unit.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cimpress N.V (CMPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34.5
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 33.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 75.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1310.7%
Total Debt to Equity 1381.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital -6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity -59.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Operating Margin -2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin -3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 8.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CMPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2593 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cimpress N.V. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cimpress N.V. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.1%, whose default value for CMPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cimpress N.V, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cimpress N.V.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $793 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Cimpress N.V.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cimpress N.V. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMPR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMPR are equal to 35.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cimpress N.V operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMPR is equal to -8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $93.662 million for Cimpress N.V - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.890 million for Cimpress N.V is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cimpress N.V at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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