Intrinsic value of Chimerix, Inc. - CMRX

Previous Close

$3.51

  Intrinsic Value

$0.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$3.51

 
Intrinsic value

$0.87

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  209
  259
  317
  382
  454
  534
  621
  716
  817
  925
  1,040
  1,162
  1,290
  1,424
  1,565
  1,712
  1,865
  2,025
  2,191
  2,363
  2,543
Variable operating expenses, $m
  38
  59
  88
  128
  181
  249
  334
  438
  564
  712
  885
  1,082
  1,304
  1,551
  1,824
  2,121
  2,444
  2,790
  3,160
  3,553
  3,968
  4,405
  4,864
  5,344
  5,846
  6,369
  6,914
  7,480
  8,070
  8,682
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
Total operating expenses, $m
  102
  125
  155
  197
  251
  321
  407
  513
  641
  790
  965
  1,164
  1,388
  1,636
  1,911
  2,210
  2,535
  2,883
  3,255
  3,650
  4,067
  4,507
  4,968
  5,450
  5,955
  6,480
  7,027
  7,596
  8,188
  8,803
Operating income, $m
  -92
  -108
  -130
  -159
  -198
  -248
  -310
  -385
  -476
  -582
  -706
  -847
  -1,005
  -1,182
  -1,377
  -1,589
  -1,819
  -2,066
  -2,330
  -2,610
  -2,905
  -3,217
  -3,543
  -3,885
  -4,242
  -4,615
  -5,002
  -5,406
  -5,825
  -6,261
EBITDA, $m
  -91
  -107
  -129
  -158
  -196
  -244
  -305
  -379
  -468
  -573
  -694
  -833
  -988
  -1,162
  -1,353
  -1,562
  -1,788
  -2,030
  -2,289
  -2,563
  -2,854
  -3,159
  -3,480
  -3,816
  -4,166
  -4,532
  -4,912
  -5,308
  -5,720
  -6,148
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  158
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
Earnings before tax, $m
  -92
  -108
  -131
  -161
  -201
  -252
  -316
  -394
  -488
  -598
  -726
  -872
  -1,037
  -1,220
  -1,422
  -1,643
  -1,881
  -2,138
  -2,412
  -2,702
  -3,010
  -3,333
  -3,673
  -4,029
  -4,400
  -4,787
  -5,190
  -5,610
  -6,046
  -6,499
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -92
  -108
  -131
  -161
  -201
  -252
  -316
  -394
  -488
  -598
  -726
  -872
  -1,037
  -1,220
  -1,422
  -1,643
  -1,881
  -2,138
  -2,412
  -2,702
  -3,010
  -3,333
  -3,673
  -4,029
  -4,400
  -4,787
  -5,190
  -5,610
  -6,046
  -6,499

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  27
  42
  63
  92
  130
  178
  240
  315
  405
  511
  635
  776
  936
  1,113
  1,309
  1,523
  1,754
  2,003
  2,268
  2,550
  2,848
  3,162
  3,491
  3,836
  4,196
  4,571
  4,962
  5,369
  5,792
  6,232
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  27
  42
  63
  92
  130
  178
  240
  315
  405
  511
  635
  776
  936
  1,113
  1,309
  1,523
  1,754
  2,003
  2,268
  2,550
  2,848
  3,162
  3,491
  3,836
  4,196
  4,571
  4,962
  5,369
  5,792
  6,232
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.407
  0.405
  0.413
  0.413
  0.408
  0.410
  0.408
  0.406
  0.407
  0.409
  0.408
  0.409
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
Average production assets, $m
  2
  4
  6
  8
  12
  16
  22
  28
  37
  46
  58
  70
  85
  101
  119
  138
  159
  181
  205
  231
  258
  286
  316
  347
  380
  414
  449
  486
  525
  564
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -25
  -37
  -54
  -76
  -104
  -140
  -184
  -237
  -299
  -371
  -454
  -547
  -651
  -766
  -891
  -1,026
  -1,172
  -1,327
  -1,492
  -1,666
  -1,850
  -2,043
  -2,244
  -2,455
  -2,675
  -2,903
  -3,141
  -3,389
  -3,646
Total debt, $m
  8
  19
  35
  57
  86
  123
  170
  227
  296
  378
  472
  580
  702
  838
  987
  1,150
  1,327
  1,517
  1,720
  1,935
  2,163
  2,403
  2,654
  2,918
  3,193
  3,480
  3,778
  4,089
  4,412
  4,748
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  32
  48
  70
  99
  136
  183
  240
  309
  391
  485
  593
  715
  851
  1,000
  1,163
  1,340
  1,530
  1,733
  1,948
  2,176
  2,416
  2,667
  2,931
  3,206
  3,493
  3,791
  4,102
  4,425
  4,761
Total equity, $m
  6
  10
  15
  22
  31
  42
  57
  74
  96
  121
  150
  183
  221
  263
  309
  359
  414
  473
  535
  602
  672
  746
  824
  905
  990
  1,079
  1,171
  1,267
  1,367
  1,471
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  27
  42
  63
  92
  130
  178
  240
  314
  405
  512
  635
  776
  936
  1,114
  1,309
  1,522
  1,754
  2,003
  2,268
  2,550
  2,848
  3,162
  3,491
  3,836
  4,196
  4,572
  4,962
  5,369
  5,792
  6,232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.240
  1.940
  2.370
  2.640
  2.810
  2.930
  3.010
  3.060
  3.100
  3.130
  3.150
  3.170
  3.180
  3.190
  3.200
  3.200
  3.210
  3.210
  3.210
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
  3.230
  3.230
  3.230
  3.230
  3.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -92
  -108
  -131
  -161
  -201
  -252
  -316
  -394
  -488
  -598
  -726
  -872
  -1,037
  -1,220
  -1,422
  -1,643
  -1,881
  -2,138
  -2,412
  -2,702
  -3,010
  -3,333
  -3,673
  -4,029
  -4,400
  -4,787
  -5,190
  -5,610
  -6,046
  -6,499
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
Funds from operations, $m
  -91
  -107
  -130
  -160
  -199
  -249
  -312
  -388
  -480
  -589
  -714
  -858
  -1,020
  -1,200
  -1,398
  -1,615
  -1,850
  -2,102
  -2,371
  -2,656
  -2,958
  -3,276
  -3,610
  -3,959
  -4,324
  -4,704
  -5,100
  -5,512
  -5,941
  -6,386
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
Cash from operations, $m
  -85
  -98
  -117
  -143
  -177
  -221
  -276
  -345
  -428
  -527
  -642
  -775
  -927
  -1,096
  -1,284
  -1,490
  -1,714
  -1,956
  -2,215
  -2,491
  -2,784
  -3,093
  -3,417
  -3,757
  -4,113
  -4,485
  -4,872
  -5,274
  -5,693
  -6,129
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -105
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -25
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
Free cash flow, $m
  -86
  -100
  -120
  -147
  -182
  -227
  -285
  -356
  -441
  -543
  -663
  -800
  -955
  -1,129
  -1,322
  -1,533
  -1,763
  -2,010
  -2,276
  -2,558
  -2,857
  -3,173
  -3,504
  -3,852
  -4,215
  -4,595
  -4,990
  -5,401
  -5,829
  -6,274
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  47
  57
  69
  81
  94
  108
  122
  136
  150
  163
  177
  190
  203
  215
  228
  240
  252
  263
  275
  287
  299
  311
  323
  336
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  94
  112
  136
  168
  210
  264
  331
  412
  509
  623
  755
  905
  1,074
  1,262
  1,468
  1,693
  1,936
  2,197
  2,474
  2,769
  3,080
  3,408
  3,751
  4,110
  4,485
  4,876
  5,283
  5,706
  6,146
  6,603
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  102
  123
  152
  190
  239
  301
  378
  469
  578
  704
  849
  1,013
  1,196
  1,398
  1,618
  1,856
  2,113
  2,387
  2,677
  2,984
  3,308
  3,648
  4,003
  4,373
  4,760
  5,163
  5,582
  6,017
  6,469
  6,939
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  23
  32
  43
  57
  74
  93
  114
  137
  161
  187
  214
  241
  269
  296
  323
  350
  376
  402
  426
  451
  475
  498
  521
  545
  568
  591
  615
  640
  665
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -112
  -136
  -168
  -210
  -264
  -331
  -412
  -509
  -623
  -755
  -905
  -1,074
  -1,262
  -1,468
  -1,693
  -1,936
  -2,197
  -2,474
  -2,769
  -3,080
  -3,408
  -3,751
  -4,110
  -4,485
  -4,876
  -5,283
  -5,706
  -6,146
  -6,603
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  174
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  95
  -89
  -104
  -125
  -153
  -190
  -238
  -298
  -373
  -462
  -568
  -692
  -833
  -993
  -1,172
  -1,370
  -1,586
  -1,821
  -2,073
  -2,343
  -2,629
  -2,933
  -3,253
  -3,589
  -3,940
  -4,308
  -4,691
  -5,090
  -5,506
  -5,938
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  91
  -81
  -90
  -103
  -119
  -138
  -161
  -186
  -214
  -242
  -270
  -295
  -317
  -334
  -344
  -348
  -345
  -335
  -319
  -298
  -272
  -243
  -213
  -183
  -153
  -126
  -101
  -79
  -60
  -45
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  4.1
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Chimerix, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is focused on discovering, developing and commercializing medicines that address unmet medical needs. Its lead compound, brincidofovir, is in development as an oral and intravenous (IV) formulation for the prevention and treatment of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) viruses, including smallpox, adenoviruses (AdV), and the human herpesviruses. It is also advancing the development of CMX521 for the treatment and prevention of norovirus. In addition, the Company has an active discovery program focusing on viral targets for which limited or no therapies are available. Brincidofovir is an investigational oral nucleotide analog that has shown spectrum antiviral activity against all five families of double-stranded deoxyribonucleic acid (dsDNA) viruses that affect humans. Oral and IV formulations of brincidofovir are in development, both of which deliver the active antiviral directly to the site of viral replication.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chimerix, Inc. (CMRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.1
Price to Sales 27.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -45.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -23.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.5%
Return On Total Capital -24.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Return On Equity -24.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -1250%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1251.5%
Operating Margin -1300%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1282.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -1266.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1268.4%
Net Profit Margin -1266.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1268.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CMRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chimerix, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Chimerix, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CMRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chimerix, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chimerix, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 342.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $63 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Chimerix, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chimerix, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMRX are equal to 22.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chimerix, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMRX is equal to -143.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $177.604 million for Chimerix, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.902 million for Chimerix, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chimerix, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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