Intrinsic value of CMS Energy Corporation - CMS

Previous Close

$62.76

  Intrinsic Value

$17.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$62.76

 
Intrinsic value

$17.57

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  7,072
  7,292
  7,533
  7,794
  8,076
  8,380
  8,706
  9,053
  9,424
  9,819
  10,238
  10,682
  11,153
  11,651
  12,178
  12,734
  13,321
  13,941
  14,594
  15,282
  16,007
  16,771
  17,574
  18,420
  19,311
  20,247
  21,232
  22,268
  23,357
  24,501
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,333
  5,498
  5,680
  5,877
  6,090
  6,319
  6,564
  6,826
  7,106
  7,403
  7,719
  8,054
  8,409
  8,785
  9,182
  9,601
  10,044
  10,511
  11,004
  11,523
  12,069
  12,645
  13,251
  13,889
  14,560
  15,266
  16,009
  16,790
  17,611
  18,474
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,333
  5,498
  5,680
  5,877
  6,090
  6,319
  6,564
  6,826
  7,106
  7,403
  7,719
  8,054
  8,409
  8,785
  9,182
  9,601
  10,044
  10,511
  11,004
  11,523
  12,069
  12,645
  13,251
  13,889
  14,560
  15,266
  16,009
  16,790
  17,611
  18,474
Operating income, $m
  1,740
  1,794
  1,853
  1,917
  1,987
  2,062
  2,142
  2,227
  2,318
  2,415
  2,519
  2,628
  2,744
  2,866
  2,996
  3,133
  3,277
  3,429
  3,590
  3,759
  3,938
  4,126
  4,323
  4,531
  4,750
  4,981
  5,223
  5,478
  5,746
  6,027
EBITDA, $m
  2,700
  2,784
  2,875
  2,975
  3,083
  3,199
  3,323
  3,456
  3,597
  3,748
  3,908
  4,078
  4,257
  4,448
  4,649
  4,861
  5,085
  5,321
  5,571
  5,833
  6,110
  6,402
  6,709
  7,031
  7,371
  7,729
  8,105
  8,500
  8,916
  9,353
Interest expense (income), $m
  427
  636
  668
  702
  739
  780
  824
  871
  921
  975
  1,033
  1,094
  1,160
  1,229
  1,302
  1,379
  1,461
  1,548
  1,639
  1,735
  1,837
  1,944
  2,056
  2,175
  2,300
  2,431
  2,570
  2,715
  2,869
  3,030
  3,199
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,104
  1,126
  1,151
  1,178
  1,207
  1,238
  1,271
  1,306
  1,343
  1,382
  1,424
  1,468
  1,515
  1,564
  1,616
  1,671
  1,729
  1,791
  1,855
  1,923
  1,994
  2,069
  2,148
  2,231
  2,319
  2,411
  2,508
  2,609
  2,716
  2,829
Tax expense, $m
  298
  304
  311
  318
  326
  334
  343
  353
  363
  373
  385
  396
  409
  422
  436
  451
  467
  483
  501
  519
  538
  559
  580
  602
  626
  651
  677
  705
  733
  764
Net income, $m
  806
  822
  841
  860
  881
  904
  928
  953
  980
  1,009
  1,040
  1,072
  1,106
  1,142
  1,180
  1,220
  1,262
  1,307
  1,354
  1,404
  1,456
  1,511
  1,568
  1,629
  1,693
  1,760
  1,831
  1,905
  1,983
  2,065

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  25,258
  26,044
  26,903
  27,836
  28,845
  29,929
  31,092
  32,334
  33,658
  35,067
  36,564
  38,151
  39,832
  41,611
  43,492
  45,479
  47,576
  49,788
  52,120
  54,578
  57,168
  59,895
  62,766
  65,787
  68,967
  72,311
  75,828
  79,527
  83,416
  87,504
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25,258
  26,044
  26,903
  27,836
  28,845
  29,929
  31,092
  32,334
  33,658
  35,067
  36,564
  38,151
  39,832
  41,611
  43,492
  45,479
  47,576
  49,788
  52,120
  54,578
  57,168
  59,895
  62,766
  65,787
  68,967
  72,311
  75,828
  79,527
  83,416
  87,504
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Average production assets, $m
  17,950
  18,508
  19,118
  19,782
  20,498
  21,269
  22,095
  22,978
  23,919
  24,920
  25,984
  27,112
  28,307
  29,571
  30,907
  32,319
  33,809
  35,381
  37,039
  38,786
  40,626
  42,564
  44,604
  46,751
  49,010
  51,387
  53,887
  56,515
  59,279
  62,184
Working capital, $m
  785
  809
  836
  865
  896
  930
  966
  1,005
  1,046
  1,090
  1,136
  1,186
  1,238
  1,293
  1,352
  1,413
  1,479
  1,547
  1,620
  1,696
  1,777
  1,862
  1,951
  2,045
  2,143
  2,247
  2,357
  2,472
  2,593
  2,720
Total debt, $m
  12,361
  12,994
  13,687
  14,439
  15,252
  16,126
  17,063
  18,064
  19,132
  20,267
  21,474
  22,753
  24,108
  25,542
  27,058
  28,659
  30,349
  32,132
  34,012
  35,993
  38,080
  40,278
  42,592
  45,028
  47,590
  50,286
  53,121
  56,102
  59,236
  62,532
Total liabilities, $m
  20,358
  20,991
  21,684
  22,436
  23,249
  24,123
  25,060
  26,061
  27,129
  28,264
  29,471
  30,750
  32,105
  33,539
  35,055
  36,656
  38,346
  40,129
  42,009
  43,990
  46,077
  48,275
  50,589
  53,025
  55,587
  58,283
  61,118
  64,099
  67,233
  70,529
Total equity, $m
  4,900
  5,052
  5,219
  5,400
  5,596
  5,806
  6,032
  6,273
  6,530
  6,803
  7,093
  7,401
  7,727
  8,073
  8,437
  8,823
  9,230
  9,659
  10,111
  10,588
  11,091
  11,620
  12,177
  12,763
  13,380
  14,028
  14,711
  15,428
  16,183
  16,976
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  25,258
  26,043
  26,903
  27,836
  28,845
  29,929
  31,092
  32,334
  33,659
  35,067
  36,564
  38,151
  39,832
  41,612
  43,492
  45,479
  47,576
  49,788
  52,120
  54,578
  57,168
  59,895
  62,766
  65,788
  68,967
  72,311
  75,829
  79,527
  83,416
  87,505
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.520
  2.570
  2.620
  2.670
  2.730
  2.780
  2.830
  2.880
  2.930
  2.980
  3.030
  3.070
  3.120
  3.160
  3.210
  3.250
  3.290
  3.330
  3.360
  3.400
  3.430
  3.470
  3.500
  3.530
  3.560
  3.580
  3.610
  3.640
  3.660
  3.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  806
  822
  841
  860
  881
  904
  928
  953
  980
  1,009
  1,040
  1,072
  1,106
  1,142
  1,180
  1,220
  1,262
  1,307
  1,354
  1,404
  1,456
  1,511
  1,568
  1,629
  1,693
  1,760
  1,831
  1,905
  1,983
  2,065
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  960
  990
  1,022
  1,058
  1,096
  1,137
  1,182
  1,229
  1,279
  1,333
  1,390
  1,450
  1,514
  1,581
  1,653
  1,728
  1,808
  1,892
  1,981
  2,074
  2,173
  2,276
  2,385
  2,500
  2,621
  2,748
  2,882
  3,022
  3,170
  3,325
Funds from operations, $m
  1,766
  1,812
  1,863
  1,918
  1,977
  2,041
  2,109
  2,182
  2,259
  2,342
  2,429
  2,522
  2,620
  2,723
  2,833
  2,948
  3,070
  3,199
  3,335
  3,478
  3,628
  3,787
  3,953
  4,129
  4,314
  4,508
  4,712
  4,927
  5,153
  5,390
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
Cash from operations, $m
  1,744
  1,788
  1,836
  1,889
  1,946
  2,007
  2,073
  2,143
  2,218
  2,298
  2,383
  2,472
  2,567
  2,668
  2,774
  2,887
  3,005
  3,130
  3,262
  3,401
  3,548
  3,702
  3,864
  4,035
  4,215
  4,404
  4,603
  4,812
  5,032
  5,263
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -933
  -960
  -990
  -1,022
  -1,058
  -1,096
  -1,137
  -1,182
  -1,229
  -1,279
  -1,333
  -1,390
  -1,450
  -1,514
  -1,581
  -1,653
  -1,728
  -1,808
  -1,892
  -1,981
  -2,074
  -2,173
  -2,276
  -2,385
  -2,500
  -2,621
  -2,748
  -2,882
  -3,022
  -3,170
New CAPEX, $m
  -506
  -558
  -611
  -663
  -717
  -771
  -826
  -883
  -941
  -1,001
  -1,064
  -1,128
  -1,195
  -1,264
  -1,336
  -1,412
  -1,490
  -1,572
  -1,658
  -1,747
  -1,840
  -1,938
  -2,040
  -2,147
  -2,259
  -2,377
  -2,500
  -2,629
  -2,764
  -2,905
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,439
  -1,518
  -1,601
  -1,685
  -1,775
  -1,867
  -1,963
  -2,065
  -2,170
  -2,280
  -2,397
  -2,518
  -2,645
  -2,778
  -2,917
  -3,065
  -3,218
  -3,380
  -3,550
  -3,728
  -3,914
  -4,111
  -4,316
  -4,532
  -4,759
  -4,998
  -5,248
  -5,511
  -5,786
  -6,075
Free cash flow, $m
  305
  269
  236
  203
  172
  140
  110
  79
  48
  18
  -14
  -45
  -77
  -110
  -143
  -178
  -213
  -250
  -287
  -326
  -367
  -409
  -452
  -497
  -544
  -594
  -645
  -698
  -754
  -812
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  584
  633
  693
  752
  813
  874
  937
  1,001
  1,067
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,355
  1,434
  1,516
  1,601
  1,690
  1,783
  1,880
  1,981
  2,087
  2,198
  2,314
  2,435
  2,562
  2,696
  2,835
  2,981
  3,134
  3,295
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  584
  633
  693
  752
  813
  874
  937
  1,001
  1,067
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,355
  1,434
  1,516
  1,601
  1,690
  1,783
  1,880
  1,981
  2,087
  2,198
  2,314
  2,435
  2,562
  2,696
  2,835
  2,981
  3,134
  3,295
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  889
  903
  928
  956
  984
  1,015
  1,047
  1,080
  1,116
  1,153
  1,193
  1,234
  1,278
  1,324
  1,372
  1,423
  1,477
  1,533
  1,593
  1,655
  1,721
  1,789
  1,862
  1,938
  2,018
  2,102
  2,190
  2,283
  2,381
  2,483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -145
  -152
  -167
  -181
  -196
  -210
  -226
  -241
  -257
  -273
  -290
  -308
  -326
  -345
  -365
  -385
  -407
  -429
  -452
  -477
  -502
  -529
  -557
  -586
  -617
  -649
  -682
  -718
  -754
  -793
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  744
  750
  762
  775
  789
  804
  821
  839
  859
  880
  902
  926
  952
  979
  1,008
  1,038
  1,070
  1,104
  1,140
  1,178
  1,218
  1,260
  1,305
  1,352
  1,401
  1,453
  1,508
  1,566
  1,626
  1,690
Discount rate, %
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  676
  613
  555
  498
  442
  389
  338
  290
  246
  205
  169
  137
  109
  85
  65
  49
  36
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CMS Energy Corporation is an energy company operating primarily in Michigan. The Company operates through three segments: electric utility, which consists of regulated activities associated with the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Michigan; gas utility, which consists of regulated activities associated with the transportation, storage and distribution of natural gas in Michigan, and enterprises, which consists of various subsidiaries engaging primarily in domestic independent power production. The Company is the parent holding company of various subsidiaries, including Consumers Energy Company (Consumers), an electric and gas utility company, and CMS Enterprises Company (CMS Enterprises), a domestic independent power producer. Consumers serves individuals and businesses operating in the alternative energy, automotive, chemical, metal, and food products industries, as well as a group of other industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.8
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -407.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 205.7%
Total Debt to Equity 235.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 13.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Operating Margin 20.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 33.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Payout Ratio 63%

CMS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6873 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CMS Energy Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CMS Energy Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for CMS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CMS Energy Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CMS Energy Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CMS Energy Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CMS Energy Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMS are equal to 253.8%.

Life of production assets of 18.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CMS Energy Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMS is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4755 million for CMS Energy Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 283.450 million for CMS Energy Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CMS Energy Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.8 billion.

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