Intrinsic value of Core Molding Technologies - CMT

Previous Close

$7.22

  Intrinsic Value

$70.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+880%

Previous close

$7.22

 
Intrinsic value

$70.72

 
Up/down potential

+880%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.80
  40.82
  37.24
  34.01
  31.11
  28.50
  26.15
  24.04
  22.13
  20.42
  18.88
  17.49
  16.24
  15.12
  14.10
  13.19
  12.38
  11.64
  10.97
  10.38
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
Revenue, $m
  234
  330
  452
  606
  795
  1,022
  1,289
  1,598
  1,952
  2,351
  2,795
  3,283
  3,817
  4,394
  5,013
  5,675
  6,377
  7,119
  7,900
  8,720
  9,578
  10,474
  11,408
  12,381
  13,393
  14,445
  15,539
  16,676
  17,857
  19,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
  175
  246
  337
  452
  593
  762
  961
  1,191
  1,455
  1,752
  2,083
  2,447
  2,844
  3,274
  3,736
  4,229
  4,752
  5,305
  5,887
  6,498
  7,137
  7,805
  8,501
  9,226
  9,981
  10,765
  11,580
  12,427
  13,307
  14,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  209
  280
  372
  488
  630
  800
  999
  1,230
  1,495
  1,793
  2,125
  2,490
  2,888
  3,319
  3,782
  4,276
  4,800
  5,354
  5,937
  6,549
  7,189
  7,858
  8,555
  9,282
  10,038
  10,823
  11,639
  12,488
  13,369
  14,285
Operating income, $m
  26
  49
  80
  118
  165
  222
  290
  368
  457
  558
  670
  794
  929
  1,075
  1,232
  1,399
  1,577
  1,765
  1,963
  2,171
  2,388
  2,616
  2,852
  3,099
  3,356
  3,623
  3,900
  4,188
  4,488
  4,799
EBITDA, $m
  35
  62
  97
  141
  196
  261
  339
  428
  531
  647
  776
  918
  1,073
  1,241
  1,421
  1,614
  1,818
  2,035
  2,262
  2,501
  2,751
  3,012
  3,284
  3,568
  3,863
  4,169
  4,488
  4,819
  5,164
  5,522
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  79
  87
  97
  106
  116
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  199
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  48
  78
  115
  160
  215
  280
  355
  440
  537
  645
  764
  893
  1,033
  1,184
  1,344
  1,515
  1,695
  1,885
  2,084
  2,292
  2,509
  2,736
  2,972
  3,218
  3,474
  3,739
  4,015
  4,302
  4,600
Tax expense, $m
  7
  13
  21
  31
  43
  58
  75
  96
  119
  145
  174
  206
  241
  279
  320
  363
  409
  458
  509
  563
  619
  678
  739
  803
  869
  938
  1,010
  1,084
  1,162
  1,242
Net income, $m
  18
  35
  57
  84
  117
  157
  204
  259
  322
  392
  471
  558
  652
  754
  864
  981
  1,106
  1,237
  1,376
  1,521
  1,673
  1,832
  1,997
  2,170
  2,349
  2,536
  2,730
  2,931
  3,140
  3,358

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  193
  271
  372
  499
  654
  841
  1,061
  1,316
  1,607
  1,935
  2,300
  2,702
  3,141
  3,616
  4,126
  4,671
  5,249
  5,859
  6,502
  7,177
  7,883
  8,621
  9,389
  10,190
  11,023
  11,889
  12,789
  13,725
  14,697
  15,707
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  193
  271
  372
  499
  654
  841
  1,061
  1,316
  1,607
  1,935
  2,300
  2,702
  3,141
  3,616
  4,126
  4,671
  5,249
  5,859
  6,502
  7,177
  7,883
  8,621
  9,389
  10,190
  11,023
  11,889
  12,789
  13,725
  14,697
  15,707
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.212
  1.218
  1.215
  1.214
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.214
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
Average production assets, $m
  103
  145
  199
  266
  349
  448
  566
  702
  857
  1,032
  1,227
  1,441
  1,675
  1,929
  2,201
  2,491
  2,799
  3,125
  3,468
  3,828
  4,205
  4,598
  5,008
  5,435
  5,880
  6,342
  6,822
  7,321
  7,839
  8,378
Working capital, $m
  24
  34
  46
  62
  81
  104
  131
  163
  199
  240
  285
  335
  389
  448
  511
  579
  650
  726
  806
  889
  977
  1,068
  1,164
  1,263
  1,366
  1,473
  1,585
  1,701
  1,821
  1,947
Total debt, $m
  22
  42
  67
  99
  139
  186
  241
  306
  380
  463
  555
  657
  768
  888
  1,017
  1,155
  1,301
  1,455
  1,618
  1,789
  1,967
  2,154
  2,349
  2,551
  2,762
  2,981
  3,209
  3,445
  3,691
  3,947
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  69
  94
  126
  166
  213
  268
  333
  407
  490
  582
  684
  795
  915
  1,044
  1,182
  1,328
  1,482
  1,645
  1,816
  1,994
  2,181
  2,376
  2,578
  2,789
  3,008
  3,236
  3,472
  3,718
  3,974
Total equity, $m
  144
  203
  278
  373
  489
  628
  792
  983
  1,200
  1,445
  1,718
  2,019
  2,346
  2,701
  3,082
  3,489
  3,921
  4,377
  4,857
  5,361
  5,889
  6,440
  7,014
  7,612
  8,234
  8,881
  9,554
  10,253
  10,979
  11,733
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  193
  272
  372
  499
  655
  841
  1,060
  1,316
  1,607
  1,935
  2,300
  2,703
  3,141
  3,616
  4,126
  4,671
  5,249
  5,859
  6,502
  7,177
  7,883
  8,621
  9,390
  10,190
  11,023
  11,889
  12,790
  13,725
  14,697
  15,707
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.150
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747
  0.747

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  35
  57
  84
  117
  157
  204
  259
  322
  392
  471
  558
  652
  754
  864
  981
  1,106
  1,237
  1,376
  1,521
  1,673
  1,832
  1,997
  2,170
  2,349
  2,536
  2,730
  2,931
  3,140
  3,358
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  13
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  61
  74
  89
  106
  124
  144
  166
  190
  215
  241
  269
  299
  330
  362
  396
  432
  469
  507
  547
  588
  631
  676
  722
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  48
  74
  107
  147
  196
  253
  320
  396
  481
  577
  682
  796
  921
  1,054
  1,196
  1,347
  1,507
  1,675
  1,851
  2,035
  2,228
  2,429
  2,638
  2,856
  3,082
  3,318
  3,562
  3,816
  4,080
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  120
  125
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  38
  61
  91
  128
  173
  226
  288
  360
  441
  531
  632
  742
  862
  991
  1,129
  1,275
  1,431
  1,595
  1,767
  1,948
  2,137
  2,334
  2,539
  2,753
  2,975
  3,206
  3,446
  3,696
  3,955
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -39
  -49
  -60
  -74
  -89
  -106
  -124
  -144
  -166
  -190
  -215
  -241
  -269
  -299
  -330
  -362
  -396
  -432
  -469
  -507
  -547
  -588
  -631
  -676
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -42
  -54
  -68
  -83
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -155
  -175
  -195
  -215
  -234
  -253
  -272
  -290
  -308
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -393
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -539
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -51
  -66
  -85
  -106
  -129
  -156
  -185
  -215
  -249
  -284
  -321
  -358
  -397
  -438
  -480
  -523
  -567
  -612
  -659
  -707
  -755
  -806
  -859
  -913
  -969
  -1,027
  -1,087
  -1,150
  -1,215
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -13
  -5
  6
  22
  43
  70
  103
  144
  192
  248
  312
  384
  464
  552
  648
  752
  864
  983
  1,109
  1,241
  1,381
  1,527
  1,680
  1,840
  2,006
  2,179
  2,359
  2,546
  2,740
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  64
  74
  83
  92
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  146
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  24
  19
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  41
  44
  45
  43
  39
  47
  56
  64
  74
  83
  92
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  146
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  31
  40
  50
  62
  90
  126
  168
  218
  275
  340
  413
  495
  584
  681
  786
  899
  1,018
  1,145
  1,279
  1,420
  1,568
  1,722
  1,883
  2,051
  2,225
  2,407
  2,596
  2,792
  2,996
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -44
  -59
  -75
  -95
  -116
  -139
  -164
  -190
  -218
  -245
  -273
  -300
  -328
  -355
  -381
  -407
  -432
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -527
  -551
  -574
  -598
  -622
  -647
  -672
  -699
  -726
  -755
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -19
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -54
  -49
  -39
  -23
  0
  30
  67
  113
  167
  229
  300
  380
  467
  562
  665
  775
  893
  1,017
  1,147
  1,285
  1,428
  1,578
  1,735
  1,897
  2,066
  2,241
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -18
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -42
  -36
  -26
  -14
  0
  16
  32
  48
  63
  77
  88
  96
  102
  104
  102
  99
  92
  84
  75
  65
  56
  46
  37
  29
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  73.0
  59.1
  52.2
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4

Core Molding Technologies, Inc. is a manufacturer of sheet molding compound (SMC) and molder of fiberglass reinforced plastics. The Company along with its subsidiaries operates in the plastics market in a family of products known as reinforced plastics. It operates through manufacturing of SMC and molder of fiberglass reinforced plastics segment. It produces and sells SMC and molded products for varied markets, such as medium and heavy-duty trucks, automobiles, marine, construction and other commercial markets. It specializes in large-format moldings and offers a range of fiberglass processes, including compression molding of SMC, glass mat thermoplastics, bulk molding compounds and direct long-fiber thermoplastics, spray-up, hand-lay-up, and resin transfer molding. It offers reaction injection molding, utilizing dicyclopentadiene technology. It operates over five production facilities in Columbus, Ohio; Batavia, Ohio; Gaffney, South Carolina; Winona, Minnesota, and Matamoros, Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Core Molding Technologies (CMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -85%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 7.2%
Total Debt to Equity 10.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
EBITDA Margin 9.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

CMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $161.673 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Core Molding Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Core Molding Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 44.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Core Molding Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Core Molding Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Core Molding Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Core Molding Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMT are equal to 43.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Core Molding Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMT is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $101.893 million for Core Molding Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.99 million for Core Molding Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Core Molding Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Core Molding Technologies: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-08-18 09:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies Appoints New CEO   [Oct-04-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Core Molding Technologies: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 09:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies posts 4Q profit   [08:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 08:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding rejoins index of nations 3,000 largest stocks   [Jun-26-17 04:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Core Molding Technologies posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 08:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core Molding Technologies posts 4Q profit   [08:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)?   [Nov-26  03:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Core Molding Technologies, Inc.   [Aug-13  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Core Molding Technologies Appoints New Board Member   [Aug-06  08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Core Molding Technologies, Inc.   [May-10  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]

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