Intrinsic value of CONMED - CNMD

Previous Close

$77.88

  Intrinsic Value

$27.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$77.88

 
Intrinsic value

$27.20

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  830
  867
  905
  946
  988
  1,034
  1,082
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,363
  1,428
  1,497
  1,569
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
  1,899
  1,992
  2,090
  2,192
  2,301
  2,414
  2,533
  2,659
  2,791
  2,929
  3,074
  3,227
Variable operating expenses, $m
  518
  537
  557
  578
  601
  625
  650
  676
  704
  734
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  864
  907
  951
  997
  1,046
  1,098
  1,152
  1,209
  1,268
  1,331
  1,397
  1,466
  1,539
  1,615
  1,695
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  260
  265
  271
  277
  283
  289
  296
  302
  309
  316
  323
  330
  337
  344
  352
  360
  368
  376
  384
  393
  401
  410
  419
  428
  438
  447
  457
  467
  477
  488
Total operating expenses, $m
  778
  802
  828
  855
  884
  914
  946
  978
  1,013
  1,050
  1,006
  1,046
  1,087
  1,130
  1,176
  1,224
  1,275
  1,327
  1,381
  1,439
  1,499
  1,562
  1,628
  1,696
  1,769
  1,844
  1,923
  2,006
  2,092
  2,183
Operating income, $m
  53
  64
  77
  90
  104
  120
  136
  153
  172
  192
  295
  317
  341
  366
  393
  421
  451
  483
  517
  553
  591
  631
  673
  718
  765
  815
  867
  923
  982
  1,044
EBITDA, $m
  232
  248
  265
  283
  302
  323
  345
  368
  393
  419
  447
  477
  509
  542
  577
  615
  654
  696
  740
  787
  836
  888
  943
  1,002
  1,063
  1,127
  1,196
  1,268
  1,343
  1,423
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  139
Earnings before tax, $m
  27
  36
  47
  58
  71
  84
  98
  113
  129
  146
  246
  266
  287
  309
  332
  357
  383
  411
  441
  472
  505
  541
  578
  617
  659
  703
  749
  798
  850
  905
Tax expense, $m
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  31
  35
  40
  67
  72
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  216
  230
  244
Net income, $m
  19
  27
  34
  43
  52
  61
  71
  82
  94
  107
  180
  194
  209
  225
  242
  261
  280
  300
  322
  345
  369
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  547
  583
  621
  661

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,614
  1,687
  1,764
  1,846
  1,932
  2,023
  2,118
  2,219
  2,325
  2,437
  2,554
  2,678
  2,808
  2,945
  3,089
  3,240
  3,399
  3,566
  3,741
  3,926
  4,120
  4,323
  4,537
  4,762
  4,998
  5,246
  5,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,614
  1,687
  1,764
  1,846
  1,932
  2,023
  2,118
  2,219
  2,325
  2,437
  2,554
  2,678
  2,808
  2,945
  3,089
  3,240
  3,399
  3,566
  3,741
  3,926
  4,120
  4,323
  4,537
  4,762
  4,998
  5,246
  5,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
Average production assets, $m
  976
  1,019
  1,064
  1,112
  1,162
  1,216
  1,272
  1,331
  1,394
  1,460
  1,529
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,846
  1,935
  2,029
  2,128
  2,233
  2,342
  2,457
  2,578
  2,705
  2,839
  2,979
  3,127
  3,282
  3,445
  3,616
  3,795
Working capital, $m
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  170
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
Total debt, $m
  517
  551
  586
  623
  662
  703
  747
  793
  842
  893
  947
  1,003
  1,063
  1,126
  1,192
  1,262
  1,335
  1,412
  1,493
  1,578
  1,667
  1,761
  1,860
  1,964
  2,072
  2,187
  2,307
  2,434
  2,566
  2,706
Total liabilities, $m
  758
  791
  826
  863
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,082
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
  1,652
  1,733
  1,818
  1,908
  2,002
  2,100
  2,204
  2,313
  2,427
  2,548
  2,674
  2,807
  2,946
Total equity, $m
  659
  688
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
  1,369
  1,436
  1,507
  1,580
  1,658
  1,740
  1,826
  1,916
  2,010
  2,110
  2,214
  2,324
  2,440
  2,561
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,613
  1,686
  1,764
  1,846
  1,932
  2,023
  2,118
  2,219
  2,325
  2,437
  2,555
  2,678
  2,808
  2,944
  3,088
  3,240
  3,398
  3,566
  3,742
  3,926
  4,120
  4,323
  4,537
  4,762
  4,998
  5,247
  5,507
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  27
  34
  43
  52
  61
  71
  82
  94
  107
  180
  194
  209
  225
  242
  261
  280
  300
  322
  345
  369
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  547
  583
  621
  661
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  228
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  362
  380
Funds from operations, $m
  199
  210
  222
  236
  250
  264
  280
  297
  315
  334
  333
  354
  377
  401
  427
  454
  483
  513
  545
  579
  615
  652
  692
  734
  779
  826
  875
  927
  982
  1,040
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  194
  206
  218
  230
  244
  259
  274
  291
  309
  327
  325
  347
  369
  393
  418
  444
  473
  502
  534
  567
  602
  640
  679
  720
  764
  810
  859
  910
  964
  1,021
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -362
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -542
Free cash flow, $m
  61
  65
  71
  76
  82
  89
  97
  104
  113
  122
  110
  120
  132
  144
  157
  170
  185
  200
  217
  234
  253
  273
  294
  316
  340
  365
  391
  419
  449
  480
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  39
  35
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  100
  101
  106
  113
  122
  131
  140
  151
  162
  173
  164
  177
  191
  207
  223
  240
  258
  277
  298
  320
  342
  367
  393
  420
  449
  479
  511
  545
  581
  619
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Cash available for distribution, $m
  72
  72
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  111
  119
  129
  117
  128
  140
  152
  165
  179
  194
  211
  228
  246
  265
  285
  307
  330
  354
  380
  407
  436
  466
  498
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  67
  62
  59
  58
  57
  55
  52
  50
  46
  43
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.6
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5

CONMED Corporation is a medical technology company. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale on a global basis of surgical devices and related equipment. The Company provides surgical devices and equipment for minimally invasive procedures. The Company's products are used by surgeons and physicians in a range of specialties, including orthopedics, general surgery, gynecology, neurosurgery and gastroenterology. The Company's product lines consist of orthopedic surgery, general surgery and surgical visualization. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's products are distributed domestically directly to over 6,000 hospitals, surgery centers and other healthcare institutions, as well as through medical specialty distributors. The Company's orthopedic surgery product lines include sports medicine, powered surgical instruments, and sports biologics and tissue. These products are marketed under a range of brands, including Hall, CONMED Linvatec, Concept and Shutt.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CONMED (CNMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 144.5
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 57
Price to Free Cash Flow 94.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84%
Total Debt to Equity 85.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Payout Ratio 146.7%

CNMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $796 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CONMED. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CONMED. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for CNMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CONMED, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CONMED.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $254 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CONMED.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CONMED. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNMD stock is equal to 1.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNMD are equal to 117.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CONMED operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNMD is equal to 12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $631 million for CONMED - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for CONMED is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CONMED at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-14-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Medical Device Stocks on the Move   [Aug-03-18 12:29PM  Investopedia]
▶ Conmed: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-24-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Annual Meeting of Shareholders   [Mar-12-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-28-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Conmed tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Jan-31-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-27-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : November 16, 2017   [Nov-16-17 11:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 11:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Conmed tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-29-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : August 15, 2017   [Aug-15-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Conmed meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 10:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 02:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CONMED Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CNMD) : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
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