Intrinsic value of CONMED - CNMD

Previous Close

$69.10

  Intrinsic Value

$41.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$69.10

 
Intrinsic value

$41.09

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  859
  925
  993
  1,063
  1,137
  1,213
  1,292
  1,375
  1,461
  1,550
  1,643
  1,741
  1,842
  1,947
  2,058
  2,173
  2,293
  2,419
  2,550
  2,688
  2,832
  2,982
  3,140
  3,305
  3,478
  3,659
  3,849
  4,048
  4,257
  4,475
Variable operating expenses, $m
  541
  576
  612
  650
  689
  730
  772
  816
  862
  910
  878
  930
  984
  1,041
  1,100
  1,161
  1,226
  1,293
  1,363
  1,437
  1,513
  1,594
  1,678
  1,766
  1,859
  1,956
  2,057
  2,163
  2,275
  2,392
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  253
  259
  265
  271
  277
  283
  289
  295
  302
  308
  315
  322
  329
  336
  344
  351
  359
  367
  375
  383
  392
  400
  409
  418
  427
  437
  446
  456
  466
  476
Total operating expenses, $m
  794
  835
  877
  921
  966
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,164
  1,218
  1,193
  1,252
  1,313
  1,377
  1,444
  1,512
  1,585
  1,660
  1,738
  1,820
  1,905
  1,994
  2,087
  2,184
  2,286
  2,393
  2,503
  2,619
  2,741
  2,868
Operating income, $m
  65
  90
  116
  143
  171
  200
  231
  263
  297
  332
  450
  488
  528
  570
  614
  660
  709
  759
  812
  868
  927
  988
  1,053
  1,121
  1,192
  1,267
  1,346
  1,429
  1,516
  1,607
EBITDA, $m
  166
  192
  219
  248
  278
  309
  341
  375
  411
  448
  486
  527
  569
  613
  660
  708
  759
  813
  869
  928
  989
  1,054
  1,122
  1,194
  1,269
  1,348
  1,431
  1,518
  1,610
  1,706
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
  187
  197
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  60
  83
  107
  132
  157
  184
  212
  242
  273
  387
  420
  456
  493
  531
  572
  615
  659
  706
  755
  807
  862
  919
  979
  1,042
  1,108
  1,178
  1,252
  1,329
  1,410
Tax expense, $m
  10
  16
  22
  29
  36
  42
  50
  57
  65
  74
  104
  113
  123
  133
  143
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  299
  318
  338
  359
  381
Net income, $m
  28
  44
  61
  78
  96
  115
  135
  155
  177
  199
  282
  307
  333
  360
  388
  417
  449
  481
  515
  551
  589
  629
  671
  715
  761
  809
  860
  914
  970
  1,029

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,466
  1,578
  1,694
  1,814
  1,940
  2,070
  2,205
  2,346
  2,493
  2,645
  2,804
  2,970
  3,143
  3,323
  3,512
  3,708
  3,913
  4,128
  4,352
  4,587
  4,833
  5,090
  5,359
  5,640
  5,935
  6,244
  6,568
  6,908
  7,264
  7,637
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,466
  1,578
  1,694
  1,814
  1,940
  2,070
  2,205
  2,346
  2,493
  2,645
  2,804
  2,970
  3,143
  3,323
  3,512
  3,708
  3,913
  4,128
  4,352
  4,587
  4,833
  5,090
  5,359
  5,640
  5,935
  6,244
  6,568
  6,908
  7,264
  7,637
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
Average production assets, $m
  570
  613
  658
  705
  754
  804
  857
  912
  968
  1,028
  1,090
  1,154
  1,221
  1,291
  1,364
  1,441
  1,520
  1,604
  1,691
  1,782
  1,878
  1,977
  2,082
  2,191
  2,306
  2,426
  2,552
  2,684
  2,822
  2,967
Working capital, $m
  204
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  346
  367
  389
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  544
  573
  604
  637
  671
  707
  744
  783
  824
  867
  912
  959
  1,009
  1,061
Total debt, $m
  544
  604
  666
  731
  798
  867
  940
  1,015
  1,094
  1,175
  1,260
  1,349
  1,441
  1,538
  1,639
  1,744
  1,854
  1,968
  2,088
  2,214
  2,345
  2,483
  2,627
  2,777
  2,935
  3,101
  3,274
  3,456
  3,646
  3,846
Total liabilities, $m
  785
  844
  906
  971
  1,038
  1,107
  1,180
  1,255
  1,334
  1,415
  1,500
  1,589
  1,682
  1,778
  1,879
  1,984
  2,094
  2,208
  2,329
  2,454
  2,585
  2,723
  2,867
  3,018
  3,175
  3,341
  3,514
  3,696
  3,886
  4,086
Total equity, $m
  682
  734
  788
  844
  902
  963
  1,025
  1,091
  1,159
  1,230
  1,304
  1,381
  1,461
  1,545
  1,633
  1,724
  1,820
  1,920
  2,024
  2,133
  2,247
  2,367
  2,492
  2,623
  2,760
  2,904
  3,054
  3,212
  3,378
  3,551
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,467
  1,578
  1,694
  1,815
  1,940
  2,070
  2,205
  2,346
  2,493
  2,645
  2,804
  2,970
  3,143
  3,323
  3,512
  3,708
  3,914
  4,128
  4,353
  4,587
  4,832
  5,090
  5,359
  5,641
  5,935
  6,245
  6,568
  6,908
  7,264
  7,637
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  44
  61
  78
  96
  115
  135
  155
  177
  199
  282
  307
  333
  360
  388
  417
  449
  481
  515
  551
  589
  629
  671
  715
  761
  809
  860
  914
  970
  1,029
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  102
  104
  105
  107
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  146
  164
  183
  203
  223
  245
  267
  291
  315
  319
  345
  373
  403
  433
  465
  499
  535
  572
  611
  652
  695
  740
  788
  838
  890
  945
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  114
  131
  148
  166
  185
  205
  226
  248
  270
  294
  296
  322
  349
  378
  407
  438
  471
  505
  541
  578
  618
  659
  703
  748
  797
  847
  900
  956
  1,015
  1,077
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -239
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  68
  83
  98
  113
  130
  147
  164
  183
  202
  200
  222
  244
  267
  291
  316
  343
  371
  400
  431
  463
  497
  532
  570
  609
  650
  694
  739
  787
  838
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  22
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  80
  68
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  135
  136
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  261
  284
  285
  310
  336
  363
  392
  422
  453
  486
  520
  556
  594
  634
  676
  720
  767
  816
  867
  921
  977
  1,037
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  84
  84
  91
  106
  122
  139
  156
  174
  193
  213
  212
  233
  256
  279
  304
  330
  357
  386
  416
  447
  480
  515
  551
  589
  630
  672
  716
  763
  812
  864
Discount rate, %
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  78
  72
  72
  76
  79
  81
  81
  79
  76
  72
  60
  56
  51
  45
  39
  33
  28
  23
  18
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5

CONMED Corporation is a medical technology company. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale on a global basis of surgical devices and related equipment. The Company provides surgical devices and equipment for minimally invasive procedures. The Company's products are used by surgeons and physicians in a range of specialties, including orthopedics, general surgery, gynecology, neurosurgery and gastroenterology. The Company's product lines consist of orthopedic surgery, general surgery and surgical visualization. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's products are distributed domestically directly to over 6,000 hospitals, surgery centers and other healthcare institutions, as well as through medical specialty distributors. The Company's orthopedic surgery product lines include sports medicine, powered surgical instruments, and sports biologics and tissue. These products are marketed under a range of brands, including Hall, CONMED Linvatec, Concept and Shutt.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CONMED (CNMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 128.2
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 50.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 83.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84%
Total Debt to Equity 85.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Payout Ratio 146.7%

CNMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $796.392 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CONMED. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CONMED. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for CNMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CONMED, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CONMED.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $248 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CONMED.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CONMED. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNMD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNMD are equal to 66.3%.

Life of production assets of 46.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CONMED operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNMD is equal to 23.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $631.432 million for CONMED - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.111 million for CONMED is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CONMED at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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JNJ Johnson&Johnso 145.34 176.79  buy
ZBH Zimmer Biomet 117.62 87.03  sell
BSX Boston Scienti 38.60 12.09  str.sell
MMSI Merit Medical 59.16 1.24  str.sell
IART Integra LifeSc 55.11 59.90  hold
WMGI Wright Medical 30.19 0.98  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-08-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Conmed: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-14-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Medical Device Stocks on the Move   [Aug-03-18 12:29PM  Investopedia]
▶ Conmed: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-24-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Annual Meeting of Shareholders   [Mar-12-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-28-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Conmed tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Jan-31-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-27-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : November 16, 2017   [Nov-16-17 11:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 11:20AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Conmed tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ CONMED Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-29-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CONMED Corp. : August 15, 2017   [Aug-15-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]

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