Intrinsic value of CNO Financial Group - CNO

Previous Close

$26.09

  Intrinsic Value

$71.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+174%

Previous close

$26.09

 
Intrinsic value

$71.54

 
Up/down potential

+174%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CNO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.28
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  0
  4,282
  4,558
  4,845
  5,144
  5,455
  5,779
  6,117
  6,470
  6,838
  7,222
  7,624
  8,043
  8,482
  8,940
  9,420
  9,922
  10,447
  10,998
  11,574
  12,178
  12,810
  13,473
  14,168
  14,896
  15,660
  16,461
  17,301
  18,183
  19,107
  20,077
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,768
  4,011
  4,263
  4,526
  4,800
  5,086
  5,383
  5,693
  6,017
  6,355
  6,709
  7,078
  7,464
  7,867
  8,289
  8,731
  9,194
  9,678
  10,185
  10,716
  11,273
  11,856
  12,468
  13,109
  13,781
  14,486
  15,225
  16,001
  16,814
  17,667
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,548
  3,768
  4,011
  4,263
  4,526
  4,800
  5,086
  5,383
  5,693
  6,017
  6,355
  6,709
  7,078
  7,464
  7,867
  8,289
  8,731
  9,194
  9,678
  10,185
  10,716
  11,273
  11,856
  12,468
  13,109
  13,781
  14,486
  15,225
  16,001
  16,814
  17,667
Operating income, $m
  470
  514
  547
  581
  617
  655
  693
  734
  776
  821
  867
  915
  965
  1,018
  1,073
  1,130
  1,191
  1,254
  1,320
  1,389
  1,461
  1,537
  1,617
  1,700
  1,788
  1,879
  1,975
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,409
EBITDA, $m
  470
  514
  547
  581
  617
  655
  693
  734
  776
  821
  867
  915
  965
  1,018
  1,073
  1,130
  1,191
  1,254
  1,320
  1,389
  1,461
  1,537
  1,617
  1,700
  1,788
  1,879
  1,975
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,409
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  148
  209
  275
  343
  414
  489
  566
  647
  731
  819
  911
  1,007
  1,107
  1,212
  1,321
  1,436
  1,556
  1,681
  1,813
  1,951
  2,095
  2,246
  2,404
  2,570
  2,744
  2,927
  3,118
  3,319
  3,529
  3,750
Earnings before tax, $m
  353
  366
  338
  307
  274
  240
  205
  168
  129
  89
  47
  4
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  99
  91
  83
  74
  65
  55
  45
  35
  24
  13
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  358
  267
  247
  224
  200
  175
  149
  122
  94
  65
  35
  3
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31,975
  33,985
  36,174
  38,451
  40,822
  43,292
  45,866
  48,549
  51,348
  54,269
  57,319
  60,504
  63,833
  67,314
  70,953
  74,760
  78,745
  82,915
  87,282
  91,856
  96,647
  101,668
  106,929
  112,444
  118,226
  124,288
  130,645
  137,312
  144,306
  151,642
  159,338
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31,975
  33,985
  36,174
  38,451
  40,822
  43,292
  45,866
  48,549
  51,348
  54,269
  57,319
  60,504
  63,833
  67,314
  70,953
  74,760
  78,745
  82,915
  87,282
  91,856
  96,647
  101,668
  106,929
  112,444
  118,226
  124,288
  130,645
  137,312
  144,306
  151,642
  159,338
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  4,223
  5,962
  7,844
  9,803
  11,842
  13,966
  16,179
  18,487
  20,894
  23,406
  26,029
  28,769
  31,632
  34,625
  37,755
  41,029
  44,455
  48,042
  51,798
  55,731
  59,852
  64,169
  68,694
  73,437
  78,409
  83,623
  89,090
  94,824
  100,838
  107,147
  113,766
Total liabilities, $m
  27,488
  29,227
  31,109
  33,068
  35,107
  37,231
  39,444
  41,752
  44,159
  46,671
  49,294
  52,034
  54,897
  57,890
  61,020
  64,294
  67,720
  71,307
  75,063
  78,996
  83,117
  87,434
  91,959
  96,702
  101,674
  106,888
  112,355
  118,089
  124,103
  130,412
  137,031
Total equity, $m
  4,487
  4,758
  5,064
  5,383
  5,715
  6,061
  6,421
  6,797
  7,189
  7,598
  8,025
  8,471
  8,937
  9,424
  9,933
  10,466
  11,024
  11,608
  12,220
  12,860
  13,531
  14,233
  14,970
  15,742
  16,552
  17,400
  18,290
  19,224
  20,203
  21,230
  22,307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31,975
  33,985
  36,173
  38,451
  40,822
  43,292
  45,865
  48,549
  51,348
  54,269
  57,319
  60,505
  63,834
  67,314
  70,953
  74,760
  78,744
  82,915
  87,283
  91,856
  96,648
  101,667
  106,929
  112,444
  118,226
  124,288
  130,645
  137,313
  144,306
  151,642
  159,338
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.941
  1.250
  1.550
  1.820
  2.070
  2.300
  2.520
  2.720
  2.910
  3.080
  3.240
  3.400
  3.540
  3.670
  3.800
  3.920
  4.030
  4.140
  4.240
  4.330
  4.420
  4.510
  4.590
  4.660
  4.740
  4.810
  4.870
  4.930
  4.990
  5.050
  5.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  358
  267
  247
  224
  200
  175
  149
  122
  94
  65
  35
  3
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1,453
  267
  247
  224
  200
  175
  149
  122
  94
  65
  35
  3
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341
Change in working capital, $m
  693
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  760
  267
  247
  224
  200
  175
  149
  122
  94
  65
  35
  3
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -742
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  267
  247
  224
  200
  175
  149
  122
  94
  65
  35
  3
  -42
  -89
  -139
  -191
  -245
  -302
  -362
  -424
  -489
  -558
  -629
  -704
  -783
  -865
  -951
  -1,042
  -1,137
  -1,237
  -1,341
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  78
  1,739
  1,882
  1,959
  2,039
  2,124
  2,213
  2,308
  2,407
  2,512
  2,623
  2,740
  2,863
  2,993
  3,130
  3,274
  3,426
  3,587
  3,756
  3,933
  4,121
  4,318
  4,525
  4,743
  4,972
  5,213
  5,467
  5,734
  6,014
  6,309
  6,619
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -198
  4
  59
  95
  132
  170
  211
  253
  297
  344
  392
  443
  508
  577
  649
  724
  803
  886
  973
  1,064
  1,160
  1,260
  1,366
  1,476
  1,592
  1,714
  1,841
  1,975
  2,116
  2,264
  2,418
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  1,743
  1,941
  2,054
  2,171
  2,294
  2,424
  2,561
  2,704
  2,856
  3,015
  3,183
  3,371
  3,570
  3,779
  3,998
  4,229
  4,473
  4,729
  4,997
  5,281
  5,578
  5,891
  6,219
  6,564
  6,927
  7,308
  7,709
  8,130
  8,573
  9,037
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  102
  2,010
  2,189
  2,277
  2,371
  2,470
  2,574
  2,683
  2,799
  2,921
  3,050
  3,186
  3,329
  3,480
  3,639
  3,807
  3,984
  4,171
  4,367
  4,574
  4,791
  5,020
  5,261
  5,515
  5,782
  6,062
  6,357
  6,667
  6,993
  7,336
  7,696
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -348
  -271
  -306
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -427
  -446
  -508
  -577
  -649
  -724
  -803
  -886
  -973
  -1,064
  -1,160
  -1,260
  -1,366
  -1,476
  -1,592
  -1,714
  -1,841
  -1,975
  -2,116
  -2,264
  -2,418
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,739
  1,882
  1,959
  2,039
  2,124
  2,213
  2,308
  2,407
  2,512
  2,623
  2,740
  2,821
  2,904
  2,991
  3,083
  3,181
  3,285
  3,394
  3,509
  3,631
  3,760
  3,896
  4,039
  4,190
  4,348
  4,516
  4,692
  4,877
  5,073
  5,278
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,588
  1,556
  1,453
  1,343
  1,230
  1,114
  997
  882
  770
  663
  563
  463
  375
  298
  232
  178
  133
  98
  70
  49
  33
  22
  14
  9
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  98.7
  96.8
  94.4
  91.7
  88.5
  85.1
  81.4
  77.7
  73.8
  69.8
  65.8
  61.7
  57.7
  53.7
  49.8
  46.0
  42.4
  38.9
  35.6
  32.6
  29.6
  26.9
  24.4
  22.1
  19.9
  17.9
  16.1
  14.5
  13.0

CNO Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company for a group of insurance companies operating throughout the United States that develops, markets and administers health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products. The Company's segments include Bankers Life, Washington National and Colonial Penn. It sells health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products through three primary distribution channels: career agents, independent producers and direct marketing. The Company offers products in various categories, including health, annuities and life insurance. The health products include Medicare supplement, long-term care, prescription drug plan and Medicare advantage, supplemental health products and other health products. The annuities products include fixed index annuities and other fixed interest annuities. The life insurance products include interest-sensitive life products and traditional life products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CNO Financial Group (CNO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 94.1%
Total Debt to Equity 94.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin 11.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate -1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Payout Ratio 15.4%

CNO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4017 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CNO Financial Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CNO Financial Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for CNO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CNO Financial Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CNO Financial Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CNO Financial Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CNO Financial Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CNO Financial Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNO is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4487 million for CNO Financial Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 168.489 million for CNO Financial Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CNO Financial Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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Financial statements of CNO
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