Intrinsic value of Global Cord Blood - CO

Previous Close

$6.67

  Intrinsic Value

$23.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+251%

Previous close

$6.67

 
Intrinsic value

$23.39

 
Up/down potential

+251%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.40
  31.46
  28.81
  26.43
  24.29
  22.36
  20.62
  19.06
  17.66
  16.39
  15.25
  14.23
  13.30
  12.47
  11.73
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
Revenue, $m
  199
  262
  337
  426
  530
  649
  782
  931
  1,096
  1,275
  1,470
  1,679
  1,903
  2,140
  2,391
  2,655
  2,932
  3,223
  3,526
  3,842
  4,172
  4,515
  4,871
  5,242
  5,627
  6,027
  6,443
  6,875
  7,324
  7,792
Variable operating expenses, $m
  129
  169
  217
  274
  340
  415
  501
  596
  701
  816
  938
  1,071
  1,214
  1,365
  1,526
  1,694
  1,871
  2,056
  2,250
  2,452
  2,662
  2,881
  3,108
  3,345
  3,590
  3,846
  4,111
  4,387
  4,674
  4,972
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  129
  169
  217
  274
  340
  415
  501
  596
  701
  816
  938
  1,071
  1,214
  1,365
  1,526
  1,694
  1,871
  2,056
  2,250
  2,452
  2,662
  2,881
  3,108
  3,345
  3,590
  3,846
  4,111
  4,387
  4,674
  4,972
Operating income, $m
  70
  93
  120
  153
  190
  233
  281
  335
  395
  460
  532
  608
  689
  774
  865
  961
  1,061
  1,166
  1,276
  1,391
  1,510
  1,634
  1,763
  1,897
  2,036
  2,181
  2,332
  2,488
  2,651
  2,820
EBITDA, $m
  82
  108
  139
  176
  218
  267
  322
  384
  451
  525
  605
  691
  783
  881
  985
  1,093
  1,208
  1,327
  1,452
  1,582
  1,718
  1,859
  2,006
  2,159
  2,317
  2,482
  2,653
  2,831
  3,016
  3,209
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  0
  -2
  5
  13
  22
  33
  46
  60
  76
  94
  113
  134
  156
  180
  206
  233
  261
  291
  322
  354
  388
  423
  460
  498
  538
  579
  622
  666
  713
  761
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  95
  116
  140
  168
  200
  235
  275
  319
  366
  419
  474
  532
  594
  659
  728
  800
  876
  954
  1,036
  1,122
  1,211
  1,303
  1,399
  1,498
  1,602
  1,710
  1,822
  1,938
  2,059
Tax expense, $m
  19
  26
  31
  38
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  160
  178
  197
  216
  236
  258
  280
  303
  327
  352
  378
  405
  433
  462
  492
  523
  556
Net income, $m
  51
  69
  84
  102
  123
  146
  172
  201
  233
  267
  306
  346
  388
  434
  481
  532
  584
  639
  697
  757
  819
  884
  951
  1,021
  1,094
  1,170
  1,248
  1,330
  1,415
  1,503

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  439
  577
  743
  939
  1,167
  1,428
  1,723
  2,052
  2,414
  2,809
  3,238
  3,699
  4,191
  4,713
  5,266
  5,848
  6,459
  7,099
  7,767
  8,464
  9,189
  9,944
  10,729
  11,545
  12,394
  13,275
  14,191
  15,143
  16,133
  17,163
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  439
  577
  743
  939
  1,167
  1,428
  1,723
  2,052
  2,414
  2,809
  3,238
  3,699
  4,191
  4,713
  5,266
  5,848
  6,459
  7,099
  7,767
  8,464
  9,189
  9,944
  10,729
  11,545
  12,394
  13,275
  14,191
  15,143
  16,133
  17,163
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.453
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
Average production assets, $m
  123
  162
  209
  264
  328
  401
  484
  577
  678
  790
  910
  1,039
  1,178
  1,325
  1,480
  1,643
  1,815
  1,995
  2,183
  2,378
  2,582
  2,795
  3,015
  3,245
  3,483
  3,731
  3,988
  4,256
  4,534
  4,823
Working capital, $m
  -66
  -87
  -112
  -142
  -176
  -215
  -260
  -309
  -364
  -423
  -488
  -557
  -632
  -710
  -794
  -881
  -974
  -1,070
  -1,171
  -1,276
  -1,385
  -1,499
  -1,617
  -1,740
  -1,868
  -2,001
  -2,139
  -2,282
  -2,432
  -2,587
Total debt, $m
  -37
  87
  237
  413
  619
  854
  1,119
  1,414
  1,740
  2,096
  2,482
  2,897
  3,339
  3,810
  4,307
  4,831
  5,381
  5,957
  6,558
  7,185
  7,838
  8,518
  9,224
  9,959
  10,722
  11,515
  12,340
  13,196
  14,088
  15,015
Total liabilities, $m
  395
  519
  669
  845
  1,051
  1,286
  1,551
  1,846
  2,172
  2,528
  2,914
  3,329
  3,771
  4,242
  4,739
  5,263
  5,813
  6,389
  6,990
  7,617
  8,270
  8,950
  9,656
  10,391
  11,154
  11,947
  12,772
  13,629
  14,520
  15,447
Total equity, $m
  44
  58
  74
  94
  117
  143
  172
  205
  241
  281
  324
  370
  419
  471
  527
  585
  646
  710
  777
  846
  919
  994
  1,073
  1,155
  1,239
  1,327
  1,419
  1,514
  1,613
  1,716
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  439
  577
  743
  939
  1,168
  1,429
  1,723
  2,051
  2,413
  2,809
  3,238
  3,699
  4,190
  4,713
  5,266
  5,848
  6,459
  7,099
  7,767
  8,463
  9,189
  9,944
  10,729
  11,546
  12,393
  13,274
  14,191
  15,143
  16,133
  17,163
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.850
  1.510
  3.180
  4.400
  5.300
  5.980
  6.490
  6.890
  7.210
  7.460
  7.670
  7.830
  7.970
  8.080
  8.180
  8.260
  8.330
  8.390
  8.440
  8.490
  8.530
  8.570
  8.600
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.700
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  51
  69
  84
  102
  123
  146
  172
  201
  233
  267
  306
  346
  388
  434
  481
  532
  584
  639
  697
  757
  819
  884
  951
  1,021
  1,094
  1,170
  1,248
  1,330
  1,415
  1,503
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  15
  18
  23
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  65
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  133
  146
  161
  176
  192
  208
  225
  243
  262
  281
  301
  322
  343
  366
  389
Funds from operations, $m
  63
  84
  103
  125
  151
  180
  213
  249
  289
  332
  379
  430
  483
  540
  601
  664
  731
  800
  873
  948
  1,027
  1,109
  1,194
  1,283
  1,375
  1,470
  1,570
  1,673
  1,780
  1,892
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  105
  128
  155
  185
  219
  257
  298
  343
  392
  444
  499
  558
  619
  684
  752
  823
  897
  973
  1,053
  1,137
  1,223
  1,313
  1,406
  1,503
  1,603
  1,708
  1,816
  1,930
  2,047
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -133
  -146
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -343
  -366
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -257
  -268
  -278
  -289
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  -49
  -60
  -72
  -85
  -99
  -115
  -131
  -148
  -166
  -184
  -202
  -222
  -242
  -262
  -283
  -305
  -326
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -420
  -446
  -472
  -500
  -529
  -558
  -590
  -621
  -655
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  56
  68
  83
  100
  119
  142
  167
  195
  226
  260
  296
  335
  377
  422
  469
  518
  570
  625
  682
  741
  802
  867
  933
  1,003
  1,075
  1,150
  1,227
  1,308
  1,392
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -37
  124
  150
  177
  205
  235
  265
  296
  326
  356
  386
  415
  443
  470
  497
  524
  550
  576
  601
  627
  653
  680
  707
  734
  763
  793
  824
  857
  891
  927
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  124
  150
  177
  205
  235
  265
  296
  326
  356
  386
  415
  443
  470
  497
  524
  550
  576
  601
  627
  653
  680
  707
  734
  763
  793
  824
  857
  891
  927
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  102
  180
  218
  259
  305
  354
  407
  463
  521
  582
  645
  711
  778
  848
  919
  993
  1,068
  1,146
  1,226
  1,309
  1,394
  1,482
  1,573
  1,668
  1,766
  1,868
  1,974
  2,084
  2,199
  2,319
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -150
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  598
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  551
  167
  201
  240
  282
  328
  377
  430
  485
  543
  602
  665
  729
  796
  864
  935
  1,007
  1,082
  1,159
  1,239
  1,321
  1,407
  1,495
  1,586
  1,681
  1,780
  1,882
  1,989
  2,100
  2,216
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  528
  153
  175
  197
  219
  238
  255
  269
  279
  285
  286
  284
  277
  267
  254
  238
  219
  199
  179
  157
  137
  117
  98
  81
  65
  52
  40
  31
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

China Cord Blood Corporation is a provider of cord blood banking services in China. The Company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the provision of umbilical cord blood storage and ancillary services in the People's Republic of China. It provides cord blood testing, processing and storage services under the direction of subscribers for a cord blood processing fee and a storage fee. It also tests, processes and stores donated cord blood, and provides matching services to the public for a fee. The Company provides cord blood processing and storage services for expectant parents interested in capturing the opportunities made available by evolving medical treatments and technologies, such as cord blood transplants. It also preserves cord blood units donated by the public; provides matching services on such donated units, and delivers matching units to patients in need of transplants. As of March 31, 2016, the Company had three operating cord blood banks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Cord Blood (CO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.1
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -28.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 56%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.5%
EBITDA Margin 41.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Operating Margin 34.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Net Profit Margin 16.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 20.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $148.199335548 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Cord Blood. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Global Cord Blood. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Cord Blood, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Cord Blood.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Global Cord Blood.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Cord Blood. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CO are equal to 61.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Cord Blood operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CO is equal to -33.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $492.541211834 million for Global Cord Blood - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 120.825 million for Global Cord Blood is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Cord Blood at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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