Intrinsic value of China Online Education Group ADR - COE

Previous Close

$8.62

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$8.62

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of COE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  205
  317
  474
  688
  970
  1,334
  1,790
  2,350
  3,024
  3,820
  4,744
  5,799
  6,990
  8,317
  9,779
  11,376
  13,104
  14,961
  16,944
  19,050
  21,276
  23,621
  26,081
  28,657
  31,347
  34,152
  37,073
  40,112
  43,272
  46,557
Variable operating expenses, $m
  244
  376
  562
  816
  1,151
  1,582
  2,124
  2,789
  3,588
  4,532
  5,628
  6,880
  8,293
  9,867
  11,602
  13,496
  15,546
  17,749
  20,102
  22,600
  25,242
  28,023
  30,942
  33,997
  37,188
  40,516
  43,982
  47,587
  51,336
  55,233
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
Total operating expenses, $m
  308
  442
  629
  885
  1,221
  1,654
  2,197
  2,864
  3,665
  4,610
  5,708
  6,962
  8,377
  9,952
  11,689
  13,585
  15,637
  17,842
  20,197
  22,697
  25,341
  28,125
  31,046
  34,103
  37,297
  40,627
  44,095
  47,703
  51,454
  55,354
Operating income, $m
  -103
  -125
  -156
  -197
  -251
  -321
  -407
  -513
  -640
  -790
  -964
  -1,163
  -1,386
  -1,635
  -1,910
  -2,209
  -2,533
  -2,881
  -3,253
  -3,648
  -4,065
  -4,504
  -4,964
  -5,447
  -5,950
  -6,475
  -7,022
  -7,591
  -8,183
  -8,797
EBITDA, $m
  -100
  -121
  -150
  -189
  -240
  -305
  -386
  -485
  -605
  -745
  -908
  -1,094
  -1,304
  -1,537
  -1,794
  -2,075
  -2,379
  -2,705
  -3,053
  -3,423
  -3,814
  -4,225
  -4,657
  -5,108
  -5,580
  -6,072
  -6,585
  -7,118
  -7,672
  -8,248
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -3
  2
  9
  19
  32
  48
  69
  94
  124
  160
  201
  249
  302
  362
  428
  500
  577
  661
  750
  845
  945
  1,050
  1,161
  1,276
  1,397
  1,524
  1,655
  1,792
  1,934
Earnings before tax, $m
  -103
  -122
  -158
  -207
  -270
  -352
  -455
  -582
  -734
  -915
  -1,124
  -1,364
  -1,635
  -1,938
  -2,272
  -2,637
  -3,033
  -3,459
  -3,914
  -4,397
  -4,909
  -5,448
  -6,014
  -6,607
  -7,227
  -7,873
  -8,546
  -9,246
  -9,974
  -10,731
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -103
  -122
  -158
  -207
  -270
  -352
  -455
  -582
  -734
  -915
  -1,124
  -1,364
  -1,635
  -1,938
  -2,272
  -2,637
  -3,033
  -3,459
  -3,914
  -4,397
  -4,909
  -5,448
  -6,014
  -6,607
  -7,227
  -7,873
  -8,546
  -9,246
  -9,974
  -10,731

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  190
  293
  438
  636
  897
  1,234
  1,656
  2,174
  2,798
  3,534
  4,388
  5,365
  6,466
  7,694
  9,047
  10,523
  12,122
  13,840
  15,674
  17,623
  19,682
  21,851
  24,127
  26,509
  28,998
  31,593
  34,295
  37,106
  40,030
  43,068
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  190
  293
  438
  636
  897
  1,234
  1,656
  2,174
  2,798
  3,534
  4,388
  5,365
  6,466
  7,694
  9,047
  10,523
  12,122
  13,840
  15,674
  17,623
  19,682
  21,851
  24,127
  26,509
  28,998
  31,593
  34,295
  37,106
  40,030
  43,068
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.079
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
Average production assets, $m
  12
  19
  28
  41
  57
  79
  106
  139
  178
  225
  280
  342
  412
  491
  577
  671
  773
  883
  1,000
  1,124
  1,255
  1,394
  1,539
  1,691
  1,849
  2,015
  2,187
  2,367
  2,553
  2,747
Working capital, $m
  -324
  -501
  -750
  -1,088
  -1,535
  -2,110
  -2,832
  -3,718
  -4,784
  -6,043
  -7,504
  -9,175
  -11,059
  -13,157
  -15,471
  -17,996
  -20,730
  -23,668
  -26,805
  -30,137
  -33,659
  -37,368
  -41,260
  -45,335
  -49,590
  -54,028
  -58,649
  -63,457
  -68,457
  -73,653
Total debt, $m
  -49
  44
  175
  353
  588
  891
  1,271
  1,737
  2,298
  2,961
  3,730
  4,609
  5,600
  6,705
  7,922
  9,251
  10,690
  12,236
  13,888
  15,641
  17,495
  19,446
  21,495
  23,639
  25,878
  28,214
  30,646
  33,176
  35,807
  38,542
Total liabilities, $m
  171
  264
  395
  572
  808
  1,110
  1,490
  1,957
  2,518
  3,180
  3,949
  4,828
  5,820
  6,924
  8,142
  9,471
  10,910
  12,456
  14,107
  15,860
  17,714
  19,666
  21,714
  23,858
  26,098
  28,433
  30,865
  33,396
  36,027
  38,761
Total equity, $m
  19
  29
  44
  64
  90
  123
  166
  217
  280
  353
  439
  536
  647
  769
  905
  1,052
  1,212
  1,384
  1,567
  1,762
  1,968
  2,185
  2,413
  2,651
  2,900
  3,159
  3,429
  3,711
  4,003
  4,307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  190
  293
  439
  636
  898
  1,233
  1,656
  2,174
  2,798
  3,533
  4,388
  5,364
  6,467
  7,693
  9,047
  10,523
  12,122
  13,840
  15,674
  17,622
  19,682
  21,851
  24,127
  26,509
  28,998
  31,592
  34,294
  37,107
  40,030
  43,068
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.570
  1.510
  3.990
  5.550
  6.550
  7.220
  7.670
  7.990
  8.220
  8.380
  8.500
  8.590
  8.660
  8.710
  8.760
  8.790
  8.820
  8.840
  8.860
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  -122
  -158
  -207
  -270
  -352
  -455
  -582
  -734
  -915
  -1,124
  -1,364
  -1,635
  -1,938
  -2,272
  -2,637
  -3,033
  -3,459
  -3,914
  -4,397
  -4,909
  -5,448
  -6,014
  -6,607
  -7,227
  -7,873
  -8,546
  -9,246
  -9,974
  -10,731
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  6
  8
  12
  16
  21
  28
  36
  45
  56
  68
  82
  98
  115
  134
  155
  177
  200
  225
  251
  279
  308
  338
  370
  403
  437
  473
  511
  549
Funds from operations, $m
  -100
  -118
  -152
  -198
  -259
  -336
  -434
  -554
  -698
  -869
  -1,068
  -1,296
  -1,553
  -1,840
  -2,156
  -2,503
  -2,878
  -3,282
  -3,714
  -4,173
  -4,658
  -5,170
  -5,707
  -6,269
  -6,857
  -7,470
  -8,108
  -8,773
  -9,464
  -10,182
Change in working capital, $m
  -122
  -177
  -248
  -338
  -447
  -575
  -722
  -887
  -1,066
  -1,259
  -1,461
  -1,670
  -1,884
  -2,099
  -2,313
  -2,525
  -2,734
  -2,938
  -3,137
  -3,332
  -3,522
  -3,709
  -3,892
  -4,074
  -4,256
  -4,438
  -4,621
  -4,808
  -4,999
  -5,196
Cash from operations, $m
  21
  58
  96
  140
  188
  239
  288
  333
  368
  389
  393
  375
  331
  259
  157
  23
  -144
  -344
  -577
  -841
  -1,136
  -1,461
  -1,814
  -2,195
  -2,601
  -3,032
  -3,487
  -3,965
  -4,464
  -4,985
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -82
  -98
  -115
  -134
  -155
  -177
  -200
  -225
  -251
  -279
  -308
  -338
  -370
  -403
  -437
  -473
  -511
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -25
  -32
  -43
  -54
  -68
  -83
  -99
  -118
  -138
  -160
  -184
  -209
  -236
  -265
  -294
  -324
  -356
  -389
  -424
  -460
  -497
  -535
  -575
  -616
  -659
  -705
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  49
  83
  122
  163
  206
  246
  278
  300
  307
  294
  257
  193
  99
  -27
  -187
  -380
  -608
  -870
  -1,165
  -1,492
  -1,850
  -2,238
  -2,655
  -3,098
  -3,568
  -4,062
  -4,581
  -5,124
  -5,690
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  93
  131
  178
  235
  303
  380
  467
  561
  662
  769
  879
  991
  1,105
  1,217
  1,329
  1,439
  1,546
  1,651
  1,753
  1,854
  1,952
  2,048
  2,144
  2,240
  2,335
  2,432
  2,530
  2,631
  2,735
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  223
  133
  173
  226
  296
  386
  497
  634
  797
  988
  1,209
  1,462
  1,745
  2,061
  2,407
  2,785
  3,193
  3,630
  4,097
  4,592
  5,115
  5,665
  6,242
  6,846
  7,476
  8,132
  8,816
  9,527
  10,266
  11,035
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  174
  226
  304
  404
  531
  689
  877
  1,101
  1,358
  1,650
  1,978
  2,341
  2,736
  3,166
  3,624
  4,114
  4,632
  5,176
  5,748
  6,345
  6,969
  7,617
  8,290
  8,990
  9,716
  10,467
  11,248
  12,057
  12,897
  13,770
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  190
  275
  386
  526
  695
  894
  1,123
  1,379
  1,658
  1,957
  2,272
  2,597
  2,929
  3,264
  3,597
  3,927
  4,251
  4,568
  4,878
  5,181
  5,476
  5,767
  6,052
  6,335
  6,617
  6,900
  7,186
  7,476
  7,774
  8,080
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -223
  -133
  -173
  -226
  -296
  -386
  -497
  -634
  -797
  -988
  -1,209
  -1,462
  -1,745
  -2,061
  -2,407
  -2,785
  -3,193
  -3,630
  -4,097
  -4,592
  -5,115
  -5,665
  -6,242
  -6,846
  -7,476
  -8,132
  -8,816
  -9,527
  -10,266
  -11,035
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -33
  142
  214
  300
  399
  509
  626
  745
  861
  969
  1,062
  1,136
  1,184
  1,203
  1,190
  1,142
  1,058
  938
  781
  588
  361
  101
  -190
  -510
  -859
  -1,232
  -1,630
  -2,051
  -2,493
  -2,955
Discount rate, %
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -32
  128
  181
  237
  293
  346
  390
  423
  443
  446
  434
  409
  371
  325
  274
  221
  170
  124
  83
  50
  24
  5
  -7
  -15
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  6.3
  0.9
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

China Online Education Group is engaged in providing online English language education services to students in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company operates an online education platform that provides online tutoring programs to students through the Internet. Its platform analyzes teachers' teaching aptitudes, feedback and rating from students, as well as background, and recommends suitable teachers to students according to their respective characteristics and learning objectives. The Company develops and tailors its curriculum to its interactive lesson format. The Company offers various courses, which include Classic English and Classic English Junior that are focused on the development of English communication skills. The Company also offers various specialty courses that are focused at situation-based English education and test preparation needs, such as Business English and International English Language Testing System (IELTS) Speaking.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Online Education Group ADR (COE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35
Price to Sales 42.5
Price to Book -185.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 648.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1296.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 177.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -96.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.6%
Return On Total Capital 569.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -639%
Return On Equity 569.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -639%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.2%
EBITDA Margin -118%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -167.4%
Operating Margin -121.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -165.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -121.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -170%
Net Profit Margin -121.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -174.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

COE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the COE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $128.173065296 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Online Education Group ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of China Online Education Group ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our COE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for COE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Online Education Group ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Online Education Group ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of COE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 118.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $63 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for COE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for China Online Education Group ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Online Education Group ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the COE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for COE are equal to 5.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Online Education Group ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for COE is equal to -158.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-101.026451028 million for China Online Education Group ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.384 million for China Online Education Group ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Online Education Group ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Wired News - GP Strategies Acquired Hula Partners   [Dec-22-17 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is China Online Education Group (COE) A Good Service Bet?   [Nov-20-17 07:35AM  Simply Wall St.]

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