Intrinsic value of Conn's - CONN

Previous Close

$28.81

  Intrinsic Value

$4.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$28.81

 
Intrinsic value

$4.24

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CONN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,546
  1,582
  1,623
  1,668
  1,719
  1,774
  1,835
  1,900
  1,971
  2,046
  2,127
  2,213
  2,305
  2,403
  2,507
  2,617
  2,733
  2,856
  2,986
  3,123
  3,268
  3,420
  3,581
  3,751
  3,929
  4,117
  4,315
  4,524
  4,743
  4,973
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,484
  1,519
  1,558
  1,601
  1,650
  1,703
  1,761
  1,824
  1,892
  1,964
  2,042
  2,125
  2,213
  2,307
  2,406
  2,512
  2,624
  2,742
  2,866
  2,998
  3,137
  3,284
  3,438
  3,601
  3,772
  3,953
  4,143
  4,343
  4,553
  4,774
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,484
  1,519
  1,558
  1,601
  1,650
  1,703
  1,761
  1,824
  1,892
  1,964
  2,042
  2,125
  2,213
  2,307
  2,406
  2,512
  2,624
  2,742
  2,866
  2,998
  3,137
  3,284
  3,438
  3,601
  3,772
  3,953
  4,143
  4,343
  4,553
  4,774
Operating income, $m
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
EBITDA, $m
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  298
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,938
  1,982
  2,033
  2,090
  2,154
  2,223
  2,299
  2,381
  2,469
  2,564
  2,666
  2,774
  2,889
  3,011
  3,141
  3,279
  3,425
  3,579
  3,742
  3,913
  4,095
  4,286
  4,488
  4,700
  4,924
  5,160
  5,408
  5,669
  5,943
  6,232
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,938
  1,982
  2,033
  2,090
  2,154
  2,223
  2,299
  2,381
  2,469
  2,564
  2,666
  2,774
  2,889
  3,011
  3,141
  3,279
  3,425
  3,579
  3,742
  3,913
  4,095
  4,286
  4,488
  4,700
  4,924
  5,160
  5,408
  5,669
  5,943
  6,232
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
Average production assets, $m
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  231
  240
  251
  262
  273
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
Working capital, $m
  773
  791
  811
  834
  859
  887
  917
  950
  985
  1,023
  1,064
  1,107
  1,153
  1,202
  1,253
  1,308
  1,366
  1,428
  1,493
  1,561
  1,634
  1,710
  1,791
  1,875
  1,965
  2,059
  2,158
  2,262
  2,371
  2,487
Total debt, $m
  1,119
  1,151
  1,187
  1,228
  1,274
  1,324
  1,378
  1,437
  1,501
  1,569
  1,642
  1,720
  1,802
  1,890
  1,984
  2,083
  2,188
  2,298
  2,415
  2,539
  2,669
  2,807
  2,952
  3,105
  3,266
  3,435
  3,613
  3,801
  3,998
  4,206
Total liabilities, $m
  1,393
  1,425
  1,462
  1,503
  1,549
  1,599
  1,653
  1,712
  1,776
  1,844
  1,917
  1,994
  2,077
  2,165
  2,259
  2,358
  2,462
  2,573
  2,690
  2,814
  2,944
  3,082
  3,227
  3,379
  3,540
  3,710
  3,888
  4,076
  4,273
  4,481
Total equity, $m
  545
  557
  571
  587
  605
  625
  646
  669
  694
  721
  749
  779
  812
  846
  883
  921
  962
  1,006
  1,051
  1,100
  1,151
  1,204
  1,261
  1,321
  1,384
  1,450
  1,520
  1,593
  1,670
  1,751
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,938
  1,982
  2,033
  2,090
  2,154
  2,224
  2,299
  2,381
  2,470
  2,565
  2,666
  2,773
  2,889
  3,011
  3,142
  3,279
  3,424
  3,579
  3,741
  3,914
  4,095
  4,286
  4,488
  4,700
  4,924
  5,160
  5,408
  5,669
  5,943
  6,232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.120
  2.130
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.330
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.390
  2.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
Funds from operations, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -3
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
Free cash flow, $m
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -223
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  137
  144
  153
  161
  170
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  54
  62
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  176
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  247
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  341
  358
  378
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
Discount rate, %
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.2
  94.2
  91.1
  87.9
  84.7
  81.6
  78.4
  75.2
  72.1
  69.0
  65.9
  63.0
  60.1
  57.3
  54.5
  51.9
  49.3
  46.8
  44.4
  42.1
  39.9
  37.8
  35.8
  33.9
  32.0
  30.3
  28.6
  27.0
  25.5
  24.1

Conn's, Inc. is a specialty retailer that offers a selection of consumer goods and related services in addition to a credit solution for its core credit constrained consumers. The Company operates through two segments: retail and credit. The Retail segment includes product categories, such as furniture and mattress, including furniture and related accessories for the living room, dining room and bedroom; home appliance, including refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers, dishwashers and ranges; Consumer electronics, including liquid-crystal-display (LED), organic LED (OLED), Ultra high definition (HD) and Internet-ready televisions, and home office, including computers, printers and accessories. Its credit segment provides short- and medium-term financing for its retail customers. Its credit offering provides financing solutions to credit constrained consumers having limited banking options. The Company operates its business through its retail stores and Website.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Conn's (CONN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 220.8%
Total Debt to Equity 221%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity -4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin -1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 25.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CONN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CONN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1516.031 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Conn's. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Conn's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CONN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for CONN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Conn's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Conn's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CONN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CONN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Conn's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Conn's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CONN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CONN are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Conn's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CONN is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $535.068 million for Conn's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.588 million for Conn's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Conn's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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