Intrinsic value of CoreSite Realty - COR

Previous Close

$112.81

  Intrinsic Value

$2,752

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$112.81

 
Intrinsic value

$2,752

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as COR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of COR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  580
  690
  810
  942
  1,084
  1,237
  1,400
  1,573
  1,756
  1,948
  2,151
  2,362
  2,583
  2,813
  3,053
  3,302
  3,562
  3,831
  4,111
  4,402
  4,705
  5,019
  5,347
  5,687
  6,041
  6,410
  6,794
  7,195
  7,612
  8,048
Variable operating expenses, $m
  363
  430
  504
  584
  671
  764
  864
  970
  1,081
  1,199
  1,314
  1,443
  1,578
  1,719
  1,865
  2,018
  2,176
  2,341
  2,512
  2,690
  2,874
  3,067
  3,266
  3,474
  3,691
  3,916
  4,151
  4,396
  4,651
  4,917
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
Total operating expenses, $m
  419
  487
  563
  644
  732
  827
  928
  1,035
  1,148
  1,267
  1,384
  1,514
  1,651
  1,794
  1,941
  2,096
  2,256
  2,422
  2,595
  2,775
  2,961
  3,156
  3,357
  3,567
  3,786
  4,013
  4,250
  4,497
  4,754
  5,023
Operating income, $m
  161
  202
  248
  298
  352
  410
  472
  538
  608
  681
  767
  848
  932
  1,020
  1,111
  1,207
  1,306
  1,409
  1,516
  1,628
  1,744
  1,864
  1,989
  2,120
  2,255
  2,397
  2,544
  2,698
  2,858
  3,026
EBITDA, $m
  359
  436
  522
  614
  715
  823
  938
  1,061
  1,190
  1,327
  1,470
  1,620
  1,776
  1,940
  2,110
  2,287
  2,471
  2,662
  2,861
  3,067
  3,282
  3,505
  3,738
  3,979
  4,231
  4,493
  4,766
  5,051
  5,347
  5,657
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Earnings before tax, $m
  161
  202
  248
  298
  352
  410
  472
  538
  608
  681
  767
  848
  932
  1,020
  1,112
  1,207
  1,306
  1,409
  1,517
  1,628
  1,744
  1,864
  1,990
  2,120
  2,256
  2,397
  2,545
  2,698
  2,859
  3,026
Tax expense, $m
  43
  55
  67
  80
  95
  111
  127
  145
  164
  184
  207
  229
  252
  275
  300
  326
  353
  381
  409
  440
  471
  503
  537
  572
  609
  647
  687
  729
  772
  817
Net income, $m
  117
  148
  181
  217
  257
  299
  345
  393
  444
  497
  560
  619
  680
  745
  812
  881
  954
  1,029
  1,107
  1,188
  1,273
  1,361
  1,453
  1,548
  1,647
  1,750
  1,858
  1,970
  2,087
  2,209

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -214
  -254
  -299
  -347
  -400
  -456
  -516
  -580
  -647
  -718
  -793
  -871
  -952
  -1,037
  -1,125
  -1,217
  -1,313
  -1,412
  -1,515
  -1,623
  -1,734
  -1,850
  -1,971
  -2,096
  -2,227
  -2,363
  -2,504
  -2,652
  -2,806
  -2,967
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -214
  -254
  -299
  -347
  -400
  -456
  -516
  -580
  -647
  -718
  -793
  -871
  -952
  -1,037
  -1,125
  -1,217
  -1,313
  -1,412
  -1,515
  -1,623
  -1,734
  -1,850
  -1,971
  -2,096
  -2,227
  -2,363
  -2,504
  -2,652
  -2,806
  -2,967
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -2.710
  -2.717
  -2.709
  -2.715
  -2.710
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.712
  -2.714
  -2.713
  -2.712
  -2.712
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.714
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.714
  -2.712
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
  -2.713
Average production assets, $m
  1,898
  2,256
  2,650
  3,080
  3,545
  4,044
  4,578
  5,144
  5,742
  6,372
  7,032
  7,724
  8,446
  9,199
  9,983
  10,798
  11,646
  12,528
  13,444
  14,396
  15,385
  16,414
  17,483
  18,596
  19,754
  20,960
  22,217
  23,527
  24,893
  26,318
Working capital, $m
  -1,285
  -1,528
  -1,795
  -2,086
  -2,401
  -2,740
  -3,101
  -3,484
  -3,889
  -4,316
  -4,763
  -5,232
  -5,721
  -6,231
  -6,762
  -7,315
  -7,889
  -8,486
  -9,106
  -9,751
  -10,421
  -11,118
  -11,843
  -12,596
  -13,381
  -14,198
  -15,049
  -15,936
  -16,861
  -17,827
Total debt, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Total liabilities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Total equity, $m
  -213
  -253
  -297
  -346
  -398
  -454
  -514
  -577
  -645
  -715
  -790
  -867
  -948
  -1,033
  -1,121
  -1,212
  -1,308
  -1,407
  -1,509
  -1,616
  -1,727
  -1,843
  -1,963
  -2,088
  -2,218
  -2,353
  -2,494
  -2,641
  -2,795
  -2,955
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -214
  -254
  -298
  -347
  -400
  -456
  -516
  -579
  -648
  -718
  -793
  -870
  -952
  -1,037
  -1,126
  -1,217
  -1,313
  -1,413
  -1,515
  -1,622
  -1,734
  -1,850
  -1,971
  -2,096
  -2,227
  -2,362
  -2,504
  -2,652
  -2,806
  -2,967
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996
  0.996

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  117
  148
  181
  217
  257
  299
  345
  393
  444
  497
  560
  619
  680
  745
  812
  881
  954
  1,029
  1,107
  1,188
  1,273
  1,361
  1,453
  1,548
  1,647
  1,750
  1,858
  1,970
  2,087
  2,209
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  198
  234
  274
  317
  363
  413
  466
  523
  583
  646
  703
  772
  845
  920
  998
  1,080
  1,165
  1,253
  1,344
  1,440
  1,539
  1,641
  1,748
  1,860
  1,975
  2,096
  2,222
  2,353
  2,489
  2,632
Funds from operations, $m
  316
  382
  455
  534
  620
  712
  811
  916
  1,026
  1,143
  1,263
  1,391
  1,525
  1,665
  1,810
  1,961
  2,118
  2,282
  2,452
  2,628
  2,812
  3,002
  3,201
  3,407
  3,622
  3,846
  4,079
  4,323
  4,576
  4,841
Change in working capital, $m
  -218
  -242
  -267
  -291
  -315
  -338
  -361
  -383
  -405
  -427
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -510
  -531
  -553
  -574
  -597
  -620
  -645
  -670
  -697
  -725
  -754
  -785
  -817
  -851
  -887
  -925
  -965
Cash from operations, $m
  534
  624
  722
  825
  935
  1,051
  1,172
  1,299
  1,432
  1,570
  1,711
  1,860
  2,014
  2,174
  2,341
  2,514
  2,693
  2,879
  3,072
  3,273
  3,482
  3,699
  3,925
  4,161
  4,407
  4,663
  4,931
  5,210
  5,501
  5,806
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -158
  -190
  -226
  -265
  -308
  -354
  -404
  -458
  -514
  -574
  -637
  -703
  -772
  -845
  -920
  -998
  -1,080
  -1,165
  -1,253
  -1,344
  -1,440
  -1,539
  -1,641
  -1,748
  -1,860
  -1,975
  -2,096
  -2,222
  -2,353
  -2,489
New CAPEX, $m
  -322
  -358
  -394
  -430
  -465
  -500
  -533
  -566
  -598
  -630
  -661
  -691
  -722
  -753
  -784
  -816
  -848
  -881
  -916
  -952
  -989
  -1,028
  -1,070
  -1,113
  -1,158
  -1,206
  -1,257
  -1,310
  -1,366
  -1,425
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -480
  -548
  -620
  -695
  -773
  -854
  -937
  -1,024
  -1,112
  -1,204
  -1,298
  -1,394
  -1,494
  -1,598
  -1,704
  -1,814
  -1,928
  -2,046
  -2,169
  -2,296
  -2,429
  -2,567
  -2,711
  -2,861
  -3,018
  -3,181
  -3,353
  -3,532
  -3,719
  -3,914
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  77
  102
  130
  162
  197
  235
  275
  319
  366
  413
  465
  520
  577
  637
  700
  765
  833
  903
  977
  1,053
  1,132
  1,214
  1,300
  1,389
  1,482
  1,578
  1,678
  1,783
  1,892
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  36
  57
  82
  110
  140
  174
  212
  252
  295
  338
  387
  438
  492
  549
  608
  669
  733
  800
  869
  941
  1,016
  1,094
  1,175
  1,258
  1,346
  1,436
  1,531
  1,629
  1,731
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  177
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
Cash available for distribution, $m
  231
  77
  102
  130
  162
  196
  234
  275
  319
  365
  412
  465
  519
  577
  637
  699
  764
  832
  903
  976
  1,052
  1,132
  1,214
  1,299
  1,388
  1,481
  1,577
  1,678
  1,782
  1,891
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  231
  77
  102
  130
  162
  196
  234
  275
  319
  365
  412
  465
  519
  577
  637
  699
  764
  832
  903
  976
  1,052
  1,132
  1,214
  1,299
  1,388
  1,481
  1,577
  1,678
  1,782
  1,891
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CoreSite Realty Corporation (CoreSite) is an integrated, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. The Company, through its controlling interest in CoreSite, L.P., is engaged in the business of ownership, acquisition, construction and operation of data centers across a range of markets in the United States, including the Northern Virginia, New York and San Francisco Bay areas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston, Miami and Denver. The enterprises, network operators, cloud providers and supporting service providers choose CoreSite to connect and protect their data, applications and computing workloads. Its offerings include the CoreSite Open Cloud Exchange and the Any2 Internet Exchange. As of December 31, 2016, it had offered cloud-enabled, network data center campuses with over 20,000 interconnections across its portfolio and direct access to carriers and Internet service providers, cloud and information technology service providers, and inter site connectivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CoreSite Realty (COR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64.8
Price to Sales 9.6
Price to Book 8.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 130%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 158.3%
Total Debt to Equity 158.3%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 13.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin 50.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
Operating Margin 23.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 184.7%

COR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the COR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $482 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CoreSite Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CoreSite Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our COR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for COR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CoreSite Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CoreSite Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of COR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $55 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for COR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CoreSite Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CoreSite Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the COR stock is equal to 1.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for COR are equal to 327%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CoreSite Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for COR is equal to -221.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for CoreSite Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for CoreSite Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CoreSite Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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