Intrinsic value of CoreSite Realty - COR

Previous Close

$114.84

  Intrinsic Value

$23.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

  Value-price divergence*

+46%

Previous close

$114.84

 
Intrinsic value

$23.98

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+46%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as COR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of COR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.12
  22.90
  21.11
  19.50
  18.05
  16.74
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.93
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.09
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
Revenue, $m
  400
  492
  595
  711
  840
  981
  1,133
  1,298
  1,474
  1,661
  1,859
  2,068
  2,288
  2,518
  2,758
  3,009
  3,270
  3,542
  3,825
  4,119
  4,425
  4,742
  5,072
  5,415
  5,772
  6,143
  6,529
  6,931
  7,350
  7,786
  8,241
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  271
  327
  390
  460
  536
  619
  708
  804
  906
  1,013
  1,122
  1,242
  1,366
  1,497
  1,633
  1,775
  1,923
  2,076
  2,236
  2,401
  2,574
  2,753
  2,939
  3,133
  3,334
  3,544
  3,762
  3,989
  4,226
  4,473
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  306
  360
  418
  484
  556
  634
  720
  811
  910
  1,015
  1,124
  1,236
  1,359
  1,486
  1,620
  1,759
  1,904
  2,055
  2,212
  2,375
  2,544
  2,720
  2,903
  3,093
  3,290
  3,495
  3,709
  3,931
  4,163
  4,404
  4,655
Operating income, $m
  95
  132
  177
  228
  284
  346
  413
  486
  564
  647
  735
  831
  929
  1,031
  1,138
  1,250
  1,366
  1,487
  1,613
  1,744
  1,881
  2,022
  2,169
  2,323
  2,482
  2,648
  2,820
  3,000
  3,187
  3,382
  3,586
EBITDA, $m
  204
  264
  336
  417
  507
  606
  713
  829
  953
  1,084
  1,224
  1,371
  1,526
  1,689
  1,858
  2,036
  2,220
  2,412
  2,612
  2,820
  3,036
  3,261
  3,494
  3,737
  3,989
  4,252
  4,525
  4,810
  5,106
  5,415
  5,738
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  24
  32
  42
  52
  63
  76
  89
  104
  120
  136
  154
  172
  192
  212
  234
  256
  279
  304
  329
  355
  382
  410
  440
  470
  502
  535
  569
  605
  642
  681
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  107
  144
  186
  232
  283
  337
  396
  460
  527
  598
  678
  757
  839
  926
  1,016
  1,110
  1,208
  1,310
  1,416
  1,526
  1,640
  1,759
  1,883
  2,012
  2,146
  2,285
  2,431
  2,582
  2,740
  2,905
Tax expense, $m
  0
  29
  39
  50
  63
  76
  91
  107
  124
  142
  162
  183
  204
  227
  250
  274
  300
  326
  354
  382
  412
  443
  475
  508
  543
  579
  617
  656
  697
  740
  784
Net income, $m
  59
  78
  105
  136
  169
  206
  246
  289
  336
  385
  437
  495
  552
  613
  676
  742
  810
  882
  956
  1,033
  1,114
  1,197
  1,284
  1,375
  1,469
  1,566
  1,668
  1,774
  1,885
  2,000
  2,121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,451
  1,781
  2,157
  2,578
  3,043
  3,553
  4,106
  4,702
  5,339
  6,018
  6,736
  7,493
  8,288
  9,122
  9,993
  10,902
  11,849
  12,834
  13,859
  14,924
  16,031
  17,182
  18,378
  19,620
  20,913
  22,257
  23,656
  25,112
  26,629
  28,210
  29,858
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,447
  1,781
  2,157
  2,578
  3,043
  3,553
  4,106
  4,702
  5,339
  6,018
  6,736
  7,493
  8,288
  9,122
  9,993
  10,902
  11,849
  12,834
  13,859
  14,924
  16,031
  17,182
  18,378
  19,620
  20,913
  22,257
  23,656
  25,112
  26,629
  28,210
  29,858
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
Average production assets, $m
  1,024
  1,258
  1,524
  1,821
  2,149
  2,509
  2,900
  3,321
  3,771
  4,250
  4,757
  5,292
  5,854
  6,443
  7,058
  7,700
  8,369
  9,065
  9,788
  10,541
  11,323
  12,135
  12,980
  13,858
  14,770
  15,720
  16,708
  17,736
  18,808
  19,924
  21,088
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
Total debt, $m
  690
  924
  1,187
  1,482
  1,808
  2,165
  2,553
  2,971
  3,418
  3,893
  4,397
  4,928
  5,485
  6,069
  6,680
  7,317
  7,981
  8,672
  9,390
  10,137
  10,913
  11,720
  12,558
  13,429
  14,335
  15,277
  16,258
  17,279
  18,342
  19,450
  20,606
Total liabilities, $m
  1,016
  1,249
  1,512
  1,807
  2,133
  2,490
  2,878
  3,296
  3,743
  4,218
  4,722
  5,253
  5,810
  6,394
  7,005
  7,642
  8,306
  8,997
  9,715
  10,462
  11,238
  12,045
  12,883
  13,754
  14,660
  15,602
  16,583
  17,604
  18,667
  19,775
  20,931
Total equity, $m
  436
  533
  645
  771
  910
  1,062
  1,228
  1,406
  1,596
  1,799
  2,014
  2,240
  2,478
  2,727
  2,988
  3,260
  3,543
  3,837
  4,144
  4,462
  4,793
  5,137
  5,495
  5,866
  6,253
  6,655
  7,073
  7,509
  7,962
  8,435
  8,928
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,452
  1,782
  2,157
  2,578
  3,043
  3,552
  4,106
  4,702
  5,339
  6,017
  6,736
  7,493
  8,288
  9,121
  9,993
  10,902
  11,849
  12,834
  13,859
  14,924
  16,031
  17,182
  18,378
  19,620
  20,913
  22,257
  23,656
  25,113
  26,629
  28,210
  29,859
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.583
  1.730
  1.840
  1.920
  1.990
  2.040
  2.080
  2.110
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
  2.300
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  59
  78
  105
  136
  169
  206
  246
  289
  336
  385
  437
  495
  552
  613
  676
  742
  810
  882
  956
  1,033
  1,114
  1,197
  1,284
  1,375
  1,469
  1,566
  1,668
  1,774
  1,885
  2,000
  2,121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  109
  132
  160
  190
  223
  260
  300
  343
  389
  438
  490
  540
  597
  657
  720
  786
  854
  925
  999
  1,076
  1,155
  1,238
  1,324
  1,414
  1,507
  1,604
  1,705
  1,810
  1,919
  2,033
  2,152
Funds from operations, $m
  141
  211
  265
  326
  393
  466
  546
  632
  724
  823
  926
  1,035
  1,150
  1,270
  1,396
  1,527
  1,664
  1,807
  1,955
  2,109
  2,269
  2,436
  2,609
  2,789
  2,976
  3,171
  3,373
  3,584
  3,804
  4,033
  4,272
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  171
  212
  266
  327
  394
  468
  548
  634
  726
  824
  928
  1,037
  1,152
  1,272
  1,398
  1,530
  1,667
  1,810
  1,958
  2,112
  2,272
  2,439
  2,612
  2,792
  2,979
  3,174
  3,377
  3,588
  3,808
  4,038
  4,277
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -104
  -128
  -155
  -186
  -219
  -256
  -296
  -339
  -385
  -434
  -485
  -540
  -597
  -657
  -720
  -786
  -854
  -925
  -999
  -1,076
  -1,155
  -1,238
  -1,324
  -1,414
  -1,507
  -1,604
  -1,705
  -1,810
  -1,919
  -2,033
New CAPEX, $m
  -299
  -235
  -266
  -297
  -329
  -360
  -391
  -421
  -450
  -479
  -507
  -535
  -562
  -589
  -615
  -642
  -669
  -696
  -724
  -752
  -782
  -813
  -844
  -878
  -913
  -949
  -988
  -1,029
  -1,071
  -1,117
  -1,164
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -364
  -339
  -394
  -452
  -515
  -579
  -647
  -717
  -789
  -864
  -941
  -1,020
  -1,102
  -1,186
  -1,272
  -1,362
  -1,455
  -1,550
  -1,649
  -1,751
  -1,858
  -1,968
  -2,082
  -2,202
  -2,327
  -2,456
  -2,592
  -2,734
  -2,881
  -3,036
  -3,197
Free cash flow, $m
  -193
  -127
  -128
  -126
  -120
  -111
  -99
  -83
  -63
  -40
  -13
  17
  50
  86
  126
  168
  212
  260
  309
  361
  415
  471
  529
  590
  653
  718
  785
  855
  927
  1,002
  1,080
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  302
  234
  264
  295
  326
  357
  388
  418
  447
  476
  503
  531
  558
  584
  611
  637
  664
  691
  718
  747
  776
  806
  838
  871
  906
  942
  981
  1,021
  1,063
  1,108
  1,155
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  22
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  300
  256
  271
  295
  326
  357
  388
  418
  447
  476
  503
  531
  558
  584
  611
  637
  664
  691
  718
  747
  776
  806
  838
  871
  906
  942
  981
  1,021
  1,063
  1,108
  1,155
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  107
  129
  143
  169
  206
  246
  289
  335
  384
  436
  491
  547
  608
  671
  736
  805
  876
  950
  1,027
  1,108
  1,191
  1,277
  1,367
  1,461
  1,559
  1,660
  1,766
  1,876
  1,990
  2,110
  2,235
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -101
  -112
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -306
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -357
  -372
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -454
  -473
  -493
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  30
  43
  67
  93
  123
  157
  193
  233
  276
  321
  370
  421
  476
  533
  593
  656
  721
  789
  860
  933
  1,010
  1,089
  1,172
  1,258
  1,347
  1,440
  1,537
  1,638
  1,742
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  26
  34
  47
  58
  68
  76
  82
  84
  85
  82
  78
  72
  65
  57
  49
  41
  34
  27
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4

CoreSite Realty Corporation (CoreSite) is an integrated, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. The Company, through its controlling interest in CoreSite, L.P., is engaged in the business of ownership, acquisition, construction and operation of data centers across a range of markets in the United States, including the Northern Virginia, New York and San Francisco Bay areas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston, Miami and Denver. The enterprises, network operators, cloud providers and supporting service providers choose CoreSite to connect and protect their data, applications and computing workloads. Its offerings include the CoreSite Open Cloud Exchange and the Any2 Internet Exchange. As of December 31, 2016, it had offered cloud-enabled, network data center campuses with over 20,000 interconnections across its portfolio and direct access to carriers and Internet service providers, cloud and information technology service providers, and inter site connectivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CoreSite Realty (COR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 66
Price to Sales 9.7
Price to Book 8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 130%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 158.3%
Total Debt to Equity 158.3%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 13.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin 50.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
Operating Margin 23.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 184.7%

COR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the COR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $400 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CoreSite Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CoreSite Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our COR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for COR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CoreSite Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CoreSite Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of COR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for COR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CoreSite Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CoreSite Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the COR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for COR are equal to 255.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CoreSite Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for COR is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $436 million for CoreSite Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.298 million for CoreSite Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CoreSite Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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Financial statements of COR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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