Intrinsic value of Core-Mark Holding - CORE

Previous Close

$24.33

  Intrinsic Value

$10.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

Previous close

$24.33

 
Intrinsic value

$10.42

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CORE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  16,943
  18,248
  19,603
  21,012
  22,477
  23,999
  25,581
  27,227
  28,940
  30,724
  32,581
  34,517
  36,535
  38,641
  40,838
  43,132
  45,528
  48,032
  50,650
  53,388
  56,252
  59,250
  62,387
  65,672
  69,113
  72,718
  76,494
  80,453
  84,602
  88,951
Variable operating expenses, $m
  16,840
  18,136
  19,483
  20,882
  22,336
  23,848
  25,419
  27,054
  28,755
  30,527
  32,358
  34,281
  36,285
  38,376
  40,558
  42,837
  45,217
  47,704
  50,304
  53,023
  55,867
  58,844
  61,960
  65,223
  68,640
  72,220
  75,971
  79,902
  84,023
  88,343
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  16,840
  18,136
  19,483
  20,882
  22,336
  23,848
  25,419
  27,054
  28,755
  30,527
  32,358
  34,281
  36,285
  38,376
  40,558
  42,837
  45,217
  47,704
  50,304
  53,023
  55,867
  58,844
  61,960
  65,223
  68,640
  72,220
  75,971
  79,902
  84,023
  88,343
Operating income, $m
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  185
  197
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  427
  449
  473
  497
  523
  550
  579
  609
EBITDA, $m
  151
  163
  175
  188
  201
  215
  229
  243
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  429
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  587
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  795
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  228
  241
  256
  271
  287
  304
  322
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  180
  187
  195
  204
  212
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
Tax expense, $m
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
Net income, $m
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,925
  2,073
  2,227
  2,387
  2,554
  2,727
  2,907
  3,094
  3,288
  3,491
  3,702
  3,922
  4,151
  4,390
  4,640
  4,901
  5,173
  5,458
  5,755
  6,066
  6,392
  6,732
  7,089
  7,462
  7,853
  8,262
  8,692
  9,141
  9,613
  10,107
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,925
  2,073
  2,227
  2,387
  2,554
  2,727
  2,907
  3,094
  3,288
  3,491
  3,702
  3,922
  4,151
  4,390
  4,640
  4,901
  5,173
  5,458
  5,755
  6,066
  6,392
  6,732
  7,089
  7,462
  7,853
  8,262
  8,692
  9,141
  9,613
  10,107
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  8.802
  8.803
  8.802
  8.803
  8.801
  8.801
  8.800
  8.800
  8.802
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.802
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.800
  8.801
  8.801
  8.800
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.802
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
  8.801
Average production assets, $m
  356
  383
  412
  441
  472
  504
  537
  572
  608
  645
  684
  725
  767
  811
  858
  906
  956
  1,009
  1,064
  1,121
  1,181
  1,244
  1,310
  1,379
  1,451
  1,527
  1,606
  1,690
  1,777
  1,868
Working capital, $m
  559
  602
  647
  693
  742
  792
  844
  898
  955
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,206
  1,275
  1,348
  1,423
  1,502
  1,585
  1,671
  1,762
  1,856
  1,955
  2,059
  2,167
  2,281
  2,400
  2,524
  2,655
  2,792
  2,935
Total debt, $m
  657
  759
  865
  976
  1,090
  1,209
  1,333
  1,462
  1,596
  1,736
  1,881
  2,033
  2,191
  2,356
  2,528
  2,707
  2,895
  3,091
  3,296
  3,510
  3,734
  3,969
  4,215
  4,472
  4,741
  5,024
  5,319
  5,629
  5,954
  6,294
Total liabilities, $m
  1,326
  1,429
  1,535
  1,645
  1,760
  1,879
  2,003
  2,132
  2,266
  2,405
  2,551
  2,702
  2,860
  3,025
  3,197
  3,377
  3,564
  3,760
  3,965
  4,180
  4,404
  4,638
  4,884
  5,141
  5,411
  5,693
  5,988
  6,298
  6,623
  6,964
Total equity, $m
  599
  645
  693
  743
  794
  848
  904
  962
  1,023
  1,086
  1,151
  1,220
  1,291
  1,365
  1,443
  1,524
  1,609
  1,697
  1,790
  1,887
  1,988
  2,094
  2,205
  2,321
  2,442
  2,570
  2,703
  2,843
  2,990
  3,143
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,925
  2,074
  2,228
  2,388
  2,554
  2,727
  2,907
  3,094
  3,289
  3,491
  3,702
  3,922
  4,151
  4,390
  4,640
  4,901
  5,173
  5,457
  5,755
  6,067
  6,392
  6,732
  7,089
  7,462
  7,853
  8,263
  8,691
  9,141
  9,613
  10,107
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.100
  1.180
  1.250
  1.310
  1.370
  1.430
  1.480
  1.520
  1.560
  1.600
  1.630
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.910
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  237
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
Change in working capital, $m
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Cash from operations, $m
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  97
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  324
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  171
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  50
  48
  46
  43
  40
  37
  33
  30
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. is a wholesale distributor to the convenience retail industry in North America. The Company provides sales, marketing, distribution and logistics services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered services to over 43,000 customer locations across the United States and Canada through 30 distribution centers. The Company's segments include the United States, Canada and Corporate. The Company's primary customer base consists of traditional convenience stores, as well as alternative outlets selling consumer packaged goods. The Company's traditional convenience store customers include various national and super-regional convenience store operators, as well as independently owned convenience stores. Its alternative outlet customers include a range of store formats, including grocery stores, drug stores, liquor stores, cigarette and tobacco shops, hotel gift shops, military exchanges, college and corporate campuses, casinos and hardware stores.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Core-Mark Holding (CORE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.8
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 59%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 65.7%
Total Debt to Equity 72.8%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Asset Turnover 11.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
EBITDA Margin 0.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 29.6%

CORE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CORE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15688 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Core-Mark Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Core-Mark Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CORE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for CORE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Core-Mark Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Core-Mark Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CORE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CORE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Core-Mark Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Core-Mark Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CORE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CORE are equal to 2.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Core-Mark Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CORE is equal to 3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $555 million for Core-Mark Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46 million for Core-Mark Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Core-Mark Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Core-Mark: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 09:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces First Quarter 2018 Investor Call   [May-01-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark beats 4Q profit forecasts   [09:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Fourth Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [Feb-26-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark to Webcast Presentation from 2018 ICR Conference   [Jan-04-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-07-17 09:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Core-Mark posts 3Q profit   [08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Third Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [Oct-31-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Switch Turns On Investors In Trading Debut, IPO Raises $531 Mil.   [Oct-06-17 05:22PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Changes to Senior Management Team   [Sep-27-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 11:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Second Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [Aug-01-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark (CORE) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 7.4%   [Jul-12-17 08:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Completion of Farner-Bocken Acquisition   [Jul-11-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark Announces First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-09-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark posts 1Q profit   [06:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces First Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [May-02-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
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