Intrinsic value of Corium International - CORI

Previous Close

$12.63

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$12.63

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CORI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.00
  33.80
  30.92
  28.33
  26.00
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.77
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
Revenue, $m
  44
  58
  76
  98
  124
  153
  187
  225
  267
  314
  364
  419
  478
  541
  607
  677
  752
  829
  910
  995
  1,084
  1,176
  1,272
  1,372
  1,475
  1,583
  1,695
  1,811
  1,932
  2,057
Variable operating expenses, $m
  82
  109
  142
  183
  230
  285
  347
  417
  495
  582
  675
  776
  885
  1,001
  1,125
  1,255
  1,392
  1,536
  1,687
  1,844
  2,008
  2,179
  2,356
  2,541
  2,733
  2,932
  3,140
  3,355
  3,579
  3,812
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  82
  109
  142
  183
  230
  285
  347
  417
  495
  582
  675
  776
  885
  1,001
  1,125
  1,255
  1,392
  1,536
  1,687
  1,844
  2,008
  2,179
  2,356
  2,541
  2,733
  2,932
  3,140
  3,355
  3,579
  3,812
Operating income, $m
  -38
  -51
  -66
  -84
  -106
  -131
  -160
  -192
  -228
  -268
  -311
  -357
  -407
  -461
  -518
  -578
  -641
  -707
  -776
  -849
  -924
  -1,003
  -1,084
  -1,169
  -1,258
  -1,350
  -1,445
  -1,544
  -1,647
  -1,754
EBITDA, $m
  -35
  -47
  -62
  -79
  -100
  -124
  -151
  -182
  -216
  -253
  -294
  -338
  -386
  -436
  -490
  -547
  -607
  -670
  -735
  -804
  -875
  -950
  -1,027
  -1,107
  -1,191
  -1,278
  -1,368
  -1,462
  -1,560
  -1,661
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  8
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  63
  73
  83
  94
  105
  118
  131
  144
  158
  173
  188
  205
  221
  239
  257
  275
  295
  315
  336
Earnings before tax, $m
  -46
  -58
  -76
  -97
  -123
  -152
  -186
  -224
  -267
  -314
  -365
  -420
  -480
  -544
  -611
  -683
  -758
  -838
  -920
  -1,007
  -1,097
  -1,191
  -1,289
  -1,391
  -1,496
  -1,606
  -1,720
  -1,839
  -1,962
  -2,091
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -46
  -58
  -76
  -97
  -123
  -152
  -186
  -224
  -267
  -314
  -365
  -420
  -480
  -544
  -611
  -683
  -758
  -838
  -920
  -1,007
  -1,097
  -1,191
  -1,289
  -1,391
  -1,496
  -1,606
  -1,720
  -1,839
  -1,962
  -2,091

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  53
  70
  92
  118
  149
  184
  225
  271
  321
  377
  438
  504
  575
  650
  731
  815
  904
  998
  1,096
  1,198
  1,304
  1,415
  1,531
  1,650
  1,775
  1,905
  2,039
  2,179
  2,325
  2,476
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  53
  70
  92
  118
  149
  184
  225
  271
  321
  377
  438
  504
  575
  650
  731
  815
  904
  998
  1,096
  1,198
  1,304
  1,415
  1,531
  1,650
  1,775
  1,905
  2,039
  2,179
  2,325
  2,476
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.830
  0.829
  0.826
  0.831
  0.832
  0.832
  0.831
  0.830
  0.832
  0.833
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.832
  0.830
  0.831
  0.832
  0.831
  0.830
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.832
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
Average production assets, $m
  21
  28
  36
  47
  59
  73
  89
  107
  127
  149
  173
  199
  227
  257
  288
  322
  357
  394
  432
  473
  515
  559
  604
  651
  701
  752
  805
  860
  918
  977
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -86
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -184
  -195
Total debt, $m
  44
  60
  80
  103
  131
  163
  199
  240
  286
  336
  391
  450
  514
  582
  654
  730
  811
  895
  983
  1,075
  1,171
  1,270
  1,374
  1,482
  1,594
  1,711
  1,832
  1,958
  2,089
  2,225
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  63
  83
  106
  134
  166
  202
  244
  289
  340
  394
  454
  517
  585
  658
  734
  814
  898
  986
  1,078
  1,174
  1,274
  1,377
  1,485
  1,598
  1,714
  1,835
  1,961
  2,092
  2,228
Total equity, $m
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  90
  100
  110
  120
  130
  142
  153
  165
  178
  190
  204
  218
  232
  248
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  52
  70
  92
  118
  149
  184
  224
  271
  321
  378
  438
  504
  574
  650
  731
  816
  904
  998
  1,096
  1,198
  1,304
  1,416
  1,530
  1,650
  1,776
  1,904
  2,039
  2,179
  2,324
  2,476
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.380
  8.540
  8.640
  8.720
  8.780
  8.820
  8.850
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  -58
  -76
  -97
  -123
  -152
  -186
  -224
  -267
  -314
  -365
  -420
  -480
  -544
  -611
  -683
  -758
  -838
  -920
  -1,007
  -1,097
  -1,191
  -1,289
  -1,391
  -1,496
  -1,606
  -1,720
  -1,839
  -1,962
  -2,091
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  16
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
Funds from operations, $m
  -44
  -54
  -71
  -92
  -116
  -145
  -177
  -214
  -254
  -299
  -348
  -401
  -458
  -519
  -584
  -652
  -724
  -800
  -879
  -962
  -1,048
  -1,138
  -1,231
  -1,329
  -1,430
  -1,535
  -1,644
  -1,757
  -1,875
  -1,998
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  -43
  -53
  -70
  -90
  -114
  -142
  -174
  -210
  -250
  -295
  -343
  -396
  -453
  -513
  -578
  -646
  -717
  -793
  -871
  -954
  -1,040
  -1,129
  -1,222
  -1,319
  -1,420
  -1,524
  -1,633
  -1,746
  -1,863
  -1,986
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  -62
  -81
  -104
  -131
  -162
  -197
  -236
  -281
  -329
  -382
  -439
  -500
  -565
  -634
  -707
  -783
  -864
  -948
  -1,035
  -1,127
  -1,222
  -1,321
  -1,424
  -1,531
  -1,642
  -1,758
  -1,878
  -2,003
  -2,133
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  16
  20
  23
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  69
  59
  78
  100
  126
  156
  190
  229
  272
  320
  371
  427
  487
  551
  619
  691
  767
  847
  930
  1,017
  1,108
  1,202
  1,301
  1,403
  1,509
  1,619
  1,734
  1,853
  1,977
  2,106
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  75
  98
  123
  154
  188
  227
  270
  318
  370
  426
  486
  551
  619
  691
  767
  847
  931
  1,018
  1,109
  1,204
  1,302
  1,405
  1,511
  1,621
  1,736
  1,855
  1,979
  2,108
  2,242
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  14
  16
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -59
  -78
  -100
  -126
  -156
  -190
  -229
  -272
  -320
  -371
  -427
  -487
  -551
  -619
  -691
  -767
  -847
  -930
  -1,017
  -1,108
  -1,202
  -1,301
  -1,403
  -1,509
  -1,619
  -1,734
  -1,853
  -1,977
  -2,106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -25
  -46
  -61
  -80
  -103
  -130
  -160
  -195
  -235
  -279
  -327
  -379
  -436
  -497
  -562
  -630
  -703
  -779
  -860
  -943
  -1,031
  -1,122
  -1,217
  -1,316
  -1,419
  -1,526
  -1,637
  -1,752
  -1,872
  -1,997
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -24
  -42
  -53
  -66
  -80
  -94
  -108
  -122
  -135
  -146
  -155
  -162
  -166
  -167
  -165
  -160
  -153
  -144
  -132
  -120
  -107
  -93
  -80
  -67
  -55
  -45
  -35
  -27
  -20
  -15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  23.5
  11.1
  5.3
  2.6
  1.3
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Corium International, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of specialty pharmaceutical products. As of September 30, 2016, the Company had multiple programs in preclinical and clinical development focused primarily on the treatment of neurological disorders, with two lead programs in Alzheimer's disease. The Company has two transdermal platforms: Corplex for small molecules and MicroCor, a biodegradable microstructure technology for small molecules and biologics, including vaccines, peptides and proteins. Its late-stage pipeline includes a contraceptive patch, which has completed Phase III trials, and additional transdermal products that are being developed with other partners. Its products include Clonidine TDS, Fentanyl TDS and Crest Whitestrips. Its pipeline products include Twirla, Corplex Donepezil and Corplex Memantine, Donepezil, Corplex Ropinerole, MicroCor hPTH(1-34) and Motion Sickness Patch.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Corium International (CORI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.9
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 17.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 243.8%
Total Debt to Equity 325%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -55.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -40%
Return On Total Capital -78.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.6%
Return On Equity -505.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -273%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin -121.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -85.2%
Operating Margin -125%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -88%
Pre-Tax Margin -150%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -110.1%
Net Profit Margin -150%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -110.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CORI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CORI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $31.864 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Corium International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Corium International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CORI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CORI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Corium International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Corium International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CORI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 187.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CORI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.1% for Corium International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Corium International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CORI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CORI are equal to 47.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Corium International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CORI is equal to -9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $16.212 million for Corium International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.14 million for Corium International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Corium International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Health Care Digest: A big Berkeley bio incubator, Apple's clinical trial help and more   [Nov-12-18 10:21AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Gurnet Point to Take Corium Private   [Oct-11-18 05:48PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Corium: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Corium: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-14-18 04:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Corium International Sank Today   [Mar-01-18 12:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Corium reports 1Q loss   [Feb-08-18 05:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Largest Insider Trades of the Week   [Jan-19-18 04:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Free Research Report as Corium's Revenue Grew 19.2%   [Dec-29-17 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Corium to Join NASDAQ Biotechnology Index   [Dec-12-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Corium reports 4Q loss   [Nov-16-17 04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Corium to Present at Upcoming Healthcare Conferences   [Sep-05-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Corium reports 3Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Corium Joins Russell 3000® Index   [Jun-26-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Corium Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [May-24-17 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]

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