Intrinsic value of Corcept Therapeutics - CORT

Previous Close

$18.87

  Intrinsic Value

$93.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+395%

  Value-price divergence*

-130%

Previous close

$18.87

 
Intrinsic value

$93.36

 
Up/down potential

+395%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-130%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CORT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  62.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  81
  130
  200
  299
  434
  613
  843
  1,131
  1,485
  1,911
  2,414
  2,998
  3,665
  4,418
  5,256
  6,180
  7,189
  8,281
  9,455
  10,708
  12,039
  13,446
  14,927
  16,482
  18,110
  19,810
  21,582
  23,428
  25,349
  27,346
  29,422
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  70
  109
  163
  236
  333
  458
  614
  807
  1,038
  1,311
  1,628
  1,990
  2,399
  2,854
  3,356
  3,904
  4,497
  5,134
  5,814
  6,537
  7,301
  8,106
  8,950
  9,834
  10,757
  11,719
  12,722
  13,765
  14,849
  15,976
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
Total operating expenses, $m
  71
  99
  138
  193
  267
  365
  490
  647
  841
  1,073
  1,347
  1,665
  2,028
  2,438
  2,894
  3,397
  3,946
  4,540
  5,178
  5,859
  6,583
  7,348
  8,154
  8,999
  9,885
  10,809
  11,772
  12,777
  13,821
  14,906
  16,035
Operating income, $m
  10
  31
  62
  107
  168
  248
  353
  484
  645
  838
  1,067
  1,333
  1,637
  1,980
  2,362
  2,784
  3,244
  3,742
  4,277
  4,849
  5,456
  6,098
  6,774
  7,483
  8,225
  9,001
  9,810
  10,652
  11,529
  12,440
  13,387
EBITDA, $m
  10
  31
  62
  107
  168
  249
  353
  484
  646
  840
  1,069
  1,335
  1,639
  1,983
  2,366
  2,787
  3,248
  3,747
  4,283
  4,855
  5,463
  6,106
  6,783
  7,493
  8,236
  9,013
  9,823
  10,666
  11,544
  12,456
  13,405
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  31
  62
  106
  166
  246
  350
  479
  639
  831
  1,057
  1,320
  1,621
  1,960
  2,338
  2,755
  3,210
  3,702
  4,231
  4,796
  5,396
  6,031
  6,698
  7,400
  8,133
  8,900
  9,699
  10,531
  11,397
  12,298
  13,234
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  17
  29
  45
  67
  94
  129
  172
  224
  285
  356
  438
  529
  631
  744
  867
  1,000
  1,142
  1,295
  1,457
  1,628
  1,809
  1,998
  2,196
  2,403
  2,619
  2,843
  3,077
  3,320
  3,573
Net income, $m
  8
  22
  45
  77
  121
  180
  255
  350
  466
  606
  772
  964
  1,183
  1,431
  1,707
  2,011
  2,343
  2,702
  3,089
  3,501
  3,939
  4,402
  4,890
  5,402
  5,937
  6,497
  7,080
  7,688
  8,320
  8,978
  9,661

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  69
  27
  42
  63
  91
  129
  177
  237
  312
  401
  507
  629
  769
  927
  1,103
  1,297
  1,509
  1,738
  1,984
  2,247
  2,527
  2,822
  3,133
  3,459
  3,801
  4,157
  4,529
  4,917
  5,320
  5,739
  6,175
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  17
  27
  42
  63
  91
  129
  177
  237
  312
  401
  507
  629
  769
  927
  1,103
  1,297
  1,509
  1,738
  1,984
  2,247
  2,527
  2,822
  3,133
  3,459
  3,801
  4,157
  4,529
  4,917
  5,320
  5,739
  6,175
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.765
  4.815
  4.762
  4.746
  4.769
  4.752
  4.763
  4.772
  4.760
  4.766
  4.761
  4.766
  4.766
  4.766
  4.765
  4.765
  4.764
  4.765
  4.766
  4.765
  4.764
  4.765
  4.764
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
  4.765
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  141
  152
  164
  177
Working capital, $m
  39
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  48
  60
  75
  92
  110
  131
  155
  180
  207
  236
  268
  301
  336
  373
  412
  453
  495
  540
  586
  634
  684
  736
Total debt, $m
  15
  8
  19
  35
  57
  85
  122
  169
  225
  294
  375
  468
  575
  696
  831
  979
  1,141
  1,316
  1,505
  1,706
  1,920
  2,146
  2,384
  2,633
  2,894
  3,167
  3,452
  3,748
  4,057
  4,377
  4,711
Total liabilities, $m
  27
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  182
  238
  307
  388
  481
  588
  709
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,329
  1,518
  1,719
  1,933
  2,159
  2,397
  2,646
  2,907
  3,180
  3,465
  3,761
  4,070
  4,390
  4,724
Total equity, $m
  41
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  259
  305
  355
  408
  466
  528
  594
  663
  736
  813
  893
  977
  1,064
  1,155
  1,250
  1,349
  1,451
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  68
  27
  42
  63
  91
  128
  177
  238
  311
  401
  507
  629
  769
  927
  1,103
  1,297
  1,509
  1,737
  1,984
  2,247
  2,527
  2,822
  3,133
  3,459
  3,800
  4,157
  4,529
  4,916
  5,320
  5,739
  6,175
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.366
  1.220
  1.940
  2.380
  2.650
  2.830
  2.940
  3.020
  3.080
  3.120
  3.150
  3.170
  3.180
  3.200
  3.210
  3.210
  3.220
  3.220
  3.230
  3.230
  3.230
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.240
  3.250
  3.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.647
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  22
  45
  77
  121
  180
  255
  350
  466
  606
  772
  964
  1,183
  1,431
  1,707
  2,011
  2,343
  2,702
  3,089
  3,501
  3,939
  4,402
  4,890
  5,402
  5,937
  6,497
  7,080
  7,688
  8,320
  8,978
  9,661
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  22
  45
  78
  122
  180
  256
  351
  467
  607
  773
  965
  1,185
  1,434
  1,710
  2,015
  2,347
  2,707
  3,094
  3,508
  3,946
  4,410
  4,899
  5,412
  5,948
  6,509
  7,093
  7,702
  8,335
  8,994
  9,678
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  21
  43
  75
  118
  176
  250
  343
  458
  597
  761
  951
  1,169
  1,415
  1,689
  1,992
  2,322
  2,680
  3,065
  3,476
  3,913
  4,375
  4,862
  5,373
  5,908
  6,466
  7,049
  7,656
  8,287
  8,944
  9,627
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  21
  43
  74
  117
  174
  248
  341
  456
  593
  756
  946
  1,163
  1,408
  1,681
  1,983
  2,312
  2,669
  3,053
  3,463
  3,899
  4,360
  4,845
  5,354
  5,888
  6,445
  7,026
  7,632
  8,262
  8,917
  9,598
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  8
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  94
  107
  121
  135
  148
  162
  175
  188
  201
  214
  226
  238
  250
  261
  273
  285
  296
  308
  321
  333
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  8
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  94
  107
  121
  135
  148
  162
  175
  188
  201
  214
  226
  238
  250
  261
  273
  285
  296
  308
  321
  333
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  29
  54
  90
  139
  203
  285
  387
  512
  662
  837
  1,040
  1,270
  1,529
  1,816
  2,131
  2,474
  2,845
  3,241
  3,664
  4,112
  4,585
  5,083
  5,604
  6,149
  6,718
  7,311
  7,928
  8,570
  9,237
  9,931
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  63
  51
  85
  132
  194
  274
  373
  495
  641
  812
  1,011
  1,237
  1,492
  1,775
  2,086
  2,424
  2,791
  3,184
  3,602
  4,047
  4,516
  5,010
  5,527
  6,069
  6,634
  7,224
  7,837
  8,475
  9,139
  9,829
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  47
  74
  109
  151
  199
  252
  309
  368
  426
  480
  528
  567
  596
  612
  616
  607
  586
  555
  514
  467
  416
  362
  309
  258
  211
  168
  131
  100
  74
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of severe metabolic, psychiatric and oncologic disorders. The Company is developing mifepristone, a compound that modulates the effects of cortisol by acting as a competitive antagonist at the glucocorticoid receptor (GR). As of December 31, 2016, it had discovered three structurally distinct series of selective cortisol modulators, all of which share mifepristone's affinity for GR but, unlike mifepristone, do not bind to the progesterone receptor. It is conducting two clinical trials of its selective cortisol modulator, CORT125134. One trial is investigating CORT125134 as a treatment for patients with Cushing syndrome. The second trial is investigating the combination of CORT125134 and nab-paclitaxel (Celgene Corporation's Abraxane) to treat patients with solid-tumor cancers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 265.9
Price to Sales 26.3
Price to Book 51.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 118.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 118.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 62%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 36.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Return On Total Capital 15.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Return On Equity 26.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -130.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 97.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97.3%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CORT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CORT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Corcept Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Corcept Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CORT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CORT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Corcept Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Corcept Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CORT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CORT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Corcept Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Corcept Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CORT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CORT are equal to 0.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Corcept Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CORT is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $41 million for Corcept Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110.478 million for Corcept Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Corcept Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Financial statements of CORT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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