Intrinsic value of Copa Holdings Cl A - CPA

Previous Close

$79.99

  Intrinsic Value

$384.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+380%

Previous close

$79.99

 
Intrinsic value

$384.12

 
Up/down potential

+380%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  2,876
  3,248
  3,642
  4,058
  4,495
  4,953
  5,432
  5,933
  6,454
  6,997
  7,561
  8,148
  8,758
  9,392
  10,051
  10,735
  11,447
  12,187
  12,958
  13,760
  14,595
  15,465
  16,372
  17,319
  18,306
  19,337
  20,414
  21,539
  22,715
  23,945
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,331
  1,502
  1,683
  1,874
  2,075
  2,285
  2,506
  2,736
  2,976
  3,225
  3,477
  3,746
  4,027
  4,318
  4,621
  4,936
  5,263
  5,604
  5,958
  6,327
  6,711
  7,111
  7,528
  7,963
  8,417
  8,891
  9,386
  9,903
  10,444
  11,010
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  958
  979
  1,000
  1,022
  1,045
  1,068
  1,091
  1,115
  1,140
  1,165
  1,190
  1,217
  1,243
  1,271
  1,299
  1,327
  1,356
  1,386
  1,417
  1,448
  1,480
  1,512
  1,546
  1,580
  1,614
  1,650
  1,686
  1,723
  1,761
  1,800
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,289
  2,481
  2,683
  2,896
  3,120
  3,353
  3,597
  3,851
  4,116
  4,390
  4,667
  4,963
  5,270
  5,589
  5,920
  6,263
  6,619
  6,990
  7,375
  7,775
  8,191
  8,623
  9,074
  9,543
  10,031
  10,541
  11,072
  11,626
  12,205
  12,810
Operating income, $m
  588
  768
  959
  1,162
  1,375
  1,600
  1,835
  2,082
  2,339
  2,607
  2,894
  3,185
  3,488
  3,803
  4,131
  4,472
  4,827
  5,197
  5,583
  5,985
  6,404
  6,842
  7,299
  7,776
  8,275
  8,796
  9,342
  9,912
  10,510
  11,135
EBITDA, $m
  781
  985
  1,201
  1,431
  1,672
  1,926
  2,193
  2,471
  2,762
  3,065
  3,380
  3,709
  4,051
  4,407
  4,777
  5,162
  5,563
  5,981
  6,416
  6,870
  7,343
  7,836
  8,351
  8,890
  9,452
  10,039
  10,654
  11,297
  11,970
  12,675
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  63
  78
  94
  110
  127
  146
  165
  185
  206
  228
  250
  274
  299
  324
  351
  378
  407
  437
  467
  500
  533
  568
  605
  643
  682
  723
  767
  812
  859
  908
Earnings before tax, $m
  525
  690
  865
  1,052
  1,248
  1,454
  1,670
  1,897
  2,133
  2,379
  2,644
  2,911
  3,189
  3,479
  3,780
  4,094
  4,421
  4,761
  5,116
  5,485
  5,871
  6,274
  6,694
  7,134
  7,593
  8,073
  8,575
  9,101
  9,651
  10,228
Tax expense, $m
  142
  186
  234
  284
  337
  393
  451
  512
  576
  642
  714
  786
  861
  939
  1,021
  1,105
  1,194
  1,285
  1,381
  1,481
  1,585
  1,694
  1,807
  1,926
  2,050
  2,180
  2,315
  2,457
  2,606
  2,761
Net income, $m
  383
  504
  632
  768
  911
  1,062
  1,219
  1,385
  1,557
  1,737
  1,930
  2,125
  2,328
  2,540
  2,760
  2,989
  3,227
  3,475
  3,734
  4,004
  4,286
  4,580
  4,887
  5,207
  5,543
  5,893
  6,260
  6,644
  7,045
  7,466

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,632
  5,230
  5,865
  6,534
  7,238
  7,976
  8,748
  9,553
  10,393
  11,267
  12,176
  13,121
  14,103
  15,124
  16,184
  17,287
  18,433
  19,625
  20,866
  22,157
  23,502
  24,903
  26,364
  27,888
  29,478
  31,139
  32,873
  34,684
  36,578
  38,559
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,632
  5,230
  5,865
  6,534
  7,238
  7,976
  8,748
  9,553
  10,393
  11,267
  12,176
  13,121
  14,103
  15,124
  16,184
  17,287
  18,433
  19,625
  20,866
  22,157
  23,502
  24,903
  26,364
  27,888
  29,478
  31,139
  32,873
  34,684
  36,578
  38,559
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
Average production assets, $m
  3,144
  3,550
  3,981
  4,435
  4,913
  5,414
  5,938
  6,484
  7,054
  7,647
  8,264
  8,906
  9,573
  10,265
  10,985
  11,734
  12,512
  13,321
  14,163
  15,039
  15,952
  16,903
  17,895
  18,929
  20,009
  21,135
  22,312
  23,542
  24,828
  26,172
Working capital, $m
  -575
  -650
  -728
  -812
  -899
  -991
  -1,086
  -1,187
  -1,291
  -1,399
  -1,512
  -1,630
  -1,752
  -1,878
  -2,010
  -2,147
  -2,289
  -2,437
  -2,592
  -2,752
  -2,919
  -3,093
  -3,274
  -3,464
  -3,661
  -3,867
  -4,083
  -4,308
  -4,543
  -4,789
Total debt, $m
  1,445
  1,733
  2,038
  2,360
  2,699
  3,054
  3,425
  3,812
  4,216
  4,637
  5,074
  5,528
  6,001
  6,492
  7,002
  7,532
  8,083
  8,657
  9,254
  9,875
  10,522
  11,196
  11,898
  12,631
  13,396
  14,195
  15,029
  15,900
  16,811
  17,764
Total liabilities, $m
  2,228
  2,516
  2,821
  3,143
  3,481
  3,836
  4,208
  4,595
  4,999
  5,419
  5,857
  6,311
  6,784
  7,275
  7,785
  8,315
  8,866
  9,440
  10,036
  10,658
  11,304
  11,979
  12,681
  13,414
  14,179
  14,978
  15,812
  16,683
  17,594
  18,547
Total equity, $m
  2,404
  2,714
  3,044
  3,391
  3,757
  4,140
  4,540
  4,958
  5,394
  5,848
  6,319
  6,810
  7,320
  7,849
  8,400
  8,972
  9,567
  10,186
  10,829
  11,500
  12,198
  12,925
  13,683
  14,474
  15,299
  16,161
  17,061
  18,001
  18,984
  20,012
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,632
  5,230
  5,865
  6,534
  7,238
  7,976
  8,748
  9,553
  10,393
  11,267
  12,176
  13,121
  14,104
  15,124
  16,185
  17,287
  18,433
  19,626
  20,865
  22,158
  23,502
  24,904
  26,364
  27,888
  29,478
  31,139
  32,873
  34,684
  36,578
  38,559
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  383
  504
  632
  768
  911
  1,062
  1,219
  1,385
  1,557
  1,737
  1,930
  2,125
  2,328
  2,540
  2,760
  2,989
  3,227
  3,475
  3,734
  4,004
  4,286
  4,580
  4,887
  5,207
  5,543
  5,893
  6,260
  6,644
  7,045
  7,466
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  193
  217
  242
  269
  297
  327
  357
  390
  423
  458
  486
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  736
  784
  833
  885
  938
  994
  1,053
  1,113
  1,177
  1,243
  1,312
  1,385
  1,460
  1,540
Funds from operations, $m
  576
  720
  874
  1,037
  1,208
  1,388
  1,577
  1,774
  1,980
  2,195
  2,416
  2,649
  2,891
  3,143
  3,406
  3,679
  3,963
  4,259
  4,567
  4,889
  5,224
  5,574
  5,939
  6,321
  6,720
  7,136
  7,572
  8,028
  8,506
  9,006
Change in working capital, $m
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
Cash from operations, $m
  646
  795
  953
  1,120
  1,295
  1,480
  1,673
  1,874
  2,084
  2,303
  2,529
  2,766
  3,013
  3,270
  3,537
  3,816
  4,105
  4,407
  4,722
  5,049
  5,391
  5,748
  6,121
  6,510
  6,917
  7,343
  7,788
  8,253
  8,741
  9,252
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -185
  -209
  -234
  -261
  -289
  -318
  -349
  -381
  -415
  -450
  -486
  -524
  -563
  -604
  -646
  -690
  -736
  -784
  -833
  -885
  -938
  -994
  -1,053
  -1,113
  -1,177
  -1,243
  -1,312
  -1,385
  -1,460
New CAPEX, $m
  -381
  -406
  -431
  -454
  -478
  -501
  -524
  -547
  -570
  -593
  -617
  -641
  -667
  -693
  -720
  -748
  -778
  -809
  -842
  -876
  -913
  -951
  -992
  -1,034
  -1,079
  -1,127
  -1,177
  -1,230
  -1,286
  -1,344
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -543
  -591
  -640
  -688
  -739
  -790
  -842
  -896
  -951
  -1,008
  -1,067
  -1,127
  -1,191
  -1,256
  -1,324
  -1,394
  -1,468
  -1,545
  -1,626
  -1,709
  -1,798
  -1,889
  -1,986
  -2,087
  -2,192
  -2,304
  -2,420
  -2,542
  -2,671
  -2,804
Free cash flow, $m
  102
  204
  313
  431
  557
  690
  830
  978
  1,133
  1,295
  1,462
  1,639
  1,823
  2,014
  2,214
  2,421
  2,637
  2,862
  3,096
  3,340
  3,594
  3,859
  4,135
  4,423
  4,724
  5,039
  5,367
  5,711
  6,071
  6,447
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  270
  288
  305
  322
  339
  355
  371
  387
  404
  420
  437
  455
  472
  491
  510
  530
  551
  573
  597
  621
  647
  674
  703
  733
  765
  799
  834
  871
  911
  953
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  270
  288
  305
  322
  339
  355
  371
  387
  404
  420
  437
  455
  472
  491
  510
  530
  551
  573
  597
  621
  647
  674
  703
  733
  765
  799
  834
  871
  911
  953
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  372
  492
  619
  753
  895
  1,045
  1,202
  1,366
  1,537
  1,715
  1,899
  2,093
  2,295
  2,505
  2,724
  2,951
  3,188
  3,435
  3,693
  3,961
  4,241
  4,533
  4,838
  5,156
  5,489
  5,837
  6,201
  6,583
  6,982
  7,400
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -292
  -311
  -329
  -347
  -365
  -383
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -454
  -472
  -490
  -510
  -530
  -550
  -572
  -595
  -619
  -644
  -670
  -698
  -727
  -758
  -791
  -825
  -862
  -900
  -940
  -983
  -1,028
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  80
  181
  289
  406
  530
  662
  801
  947
  1,101
  1,262
  1,428
  1,603
  1,785
  1,976
  2,173
  2,379
  2,594
  2,817
  3,049
  3,291
  3,543
  3,805
  4,079
  4,365
  4,664
  4,976
  5,302
  5,642
  5,999
  6,372
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  77
  166
  252
  334
  411
  480
  541
  592
  633
  662
  678
  684
  679
  663
  638
  605
  564
  519
  469
  418
  366
  316
  267
  222
  181
  145
  114
  87
  65
  48
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Copa Holdings, S.A. is a provider of airline passenger and cargo service through its principal operating subsidiaries, Compania Panamena de Aviacion, S. A. (Copa Airlines) and AeroRepublica, S. A. (Copa Colombia). The Company operates through air transportation segment. Copa Airlines operates from its position located in the Republic of Panama. Copa Airlines provides international air transportation for passengers, cargo and mail, operating from its Panama City hub in the Republic of Panama. Copa Colombia provides service within Colombia and international flights from various cities in Colombia to Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala and Costa Rica. Copa Colombia provides domestic and international air transportation for passengers, cargo and mail with a point-to-point route network. Its subsidiary, Oval Financial Leasing, Ltd., controls the special purpose entities that have a beneficial interest in the majority of its fleet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Copa Holdings Cl A (CPA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 52.2%
Total Debt to Equity 64.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 19.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 25.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Operating Margin 12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 10.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio 25.7%

CPA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2527.556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Copa Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Copa Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CPA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Copa Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Copa Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $937 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Copa Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Copa Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPA are equal to 109.3%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Copa Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPA is equal to -20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2111.495 million for Copa Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.186 million for Copa Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Copa Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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