Intrinsic value of Copa Holdings, S.A. - CPA

Previous Close

$93.87

  Intrinsic Value

$298.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+218%

Previous close

$93.87

 
Intrinsic value

$298.67

 
Up/down potential

+218%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  2,877
  3,249
  3,643
  4,058
  4,496
  4,954
  5,433
  5,934
  6,455
  6,998
  7,563
  8,150
  8,760
  9,394
  10,052
  10,737
  11,449
  12,189
  12,960
  13,762
  14,597
  15,468
  16,375
  17,322
  18,309
  19,340
  20,417
  21,543
  22,719
  23,949
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,348
  1,521
  1,705
  1,898
  2,102
  2,316
  2,539
  2,772
  3,015
  3,268
  3,523
  3,796
  4,080
  4,375
  4,682
  5,001
  5,333
  5,678
  6,037
  6,410
  6,799
  7,205
  7,628
  8,068
  8,528
  9,009
  9,510
  10,035
  10,583
  11,155
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  953
  973
  995
  1,017
  1,039
  1,062
  1,085
  1,109
  1,134
  1,159
  1,184
  1,210
  1,237
  1,264
  1,292
  1,320
  1,349
  1,379
  1,409
  1,440
  1,472
  1,504
  1,537
  1,571
  1,606
  1,641
  1,677
  1,714
  1,752
  1,790
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,301
  2,494
  2,700
  2,915
  3,141
  3,378
  3,624
  3,881
  4,149
  4,427
  4,707
  5,006
  5,317
  5,639
  5,974
  6,321
  6,682
  7,057
  7,446
  7,850
  8,271
  8,709
  9,165
  9,639
  10,134
  10,650
  11,187
  11,749
  12,335
  12,945
Operating income, $m
  576
  754
  943
  1,143
  1,354
  1,576
  1,809
  2,052
  2,307
  2,572
  2,856
  3,143
  3,443
  3,754
  4,078
  4,416
  4,767
  5,133
  5,514
  5,911
  6,326
  6,759
  7,210
  7,682
  8,175
  8,691
  9,230
  9,794
  10,385
  11,003
EBITDA, $m
  772
  974
  1,189
  1,416
  1,656
  1,908
  2,172
  2,448
  2,736
  3,036
  3,349
  3,675
  4,014
  4,367
  4,734
  5,116
  5,514
  5,928
  6,359
  6,809
  7,278
  7,768
  8,278
  8,812
  9,369
  9,952
  10,562
  11,199
  11,867
  12,566
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  63
  78
  93
  110
  127
  145
  164
  184
  205
  226
  249
  272
  297
  322
  348
  376
  404
  434
  464
  496
  530
  564
  600
  638
  677
  718
  761
  806
  853
  901
Earnings before tax, $m
  513
  676
  850
  1,033
  1,227
  1,431
  1,645
  1,868
  2,102
  2,345
  2,607
  2,871
  3,146
  3,432
  3,730
  4,040
  4,363
  4,699
  5,050
  5,415
  5,796
  6,194
  6,610
  7,044
  7,498
  7,972
  8,469
  8,988
  9,532
  10,102
Tax expense, $m
  138
  183
  229
  279
  331
  386
  444
  504
  568
  633
  704
  775
  849
  927
  1,007
  1,091
  1,178
  1,269
  1,363
  1,462
  1,565
  1,672
  1,785
  1,902
  2,024
  2,153
  2,287
  2,427
  2,574
  2,728
Net income, $m
  374
  493
  620
  754
  896
  1,045
  1,201
  1,364
  1,534
  1,712
  1,903
  2,096
  2,297
  2,505
  2,723
  2,949
  3,185
  3,430
  3,686
  3,953
  4,231
  4,522
  4,825
  5,142
  5,473
  5,820
  6,182
  6,561
  6,959
  7,374

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,379
  4,945
  5,544
  6,177
  6,843
  7,540
  8,270
  9,031
  9,825
  10,651
  11,511
  12,404
  13,333
  14,298
  15,300
  16,343
  17,426
  18,553
  19,726
  20,947
  22,218
  23,543
  24,924
  26,365
  27,868
  29,438
  31,077
  32,790
  34,580
  36,453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,379
  4,945
  5,544
  6,177
  6,843
  7,540
  8,270
  9,031
  9,825
  10,651
  11,511
  12,404
  13,333
  14,298
  15,300
  16,343
  17,426
  18,553
  19,726
  20,947
  22,218
  23,543
  24,924
  26,365
  27,868
  29,438
  31,077
  32,790
  34,580
  36,453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
Average production assets, $m
  2,909
  3,284
  3,683
  4,103
  4,545
  5,008
  5,493
  5,999
  6,526
  7,075
  7,646
  8,239
  8,856
  9,497
  10,163
  10,855
  11,575
  12,324
  13,103
  13,913
  14,758
  15,638
  16,555
  17,512
  18,511
  19,553
  20,642
  21,780
  22,969
  24,213
Working capital, $m
  -561
  -633
  -710
  -791
  -877
  -966
  -1,060
  -1,157
  -1,259
  -1,365
  -1,475
  -1,589
  -1,708
  -1,832
  -1,960
  -2,094
  -2,233
  -2,377
  -2,527
  -2,684
  -2,846
  -3,016
  -3,193
  -3,378
  -3,570
  -3,771
  -3,981
  -4,201
  -4,430
  -4,670
Total debt, $m
  1,442
  1,728
  2,030
  2,350
  2,686
  3,038
  3,407
  3,791
  4,192
  4,610
  5,044
  5,495
  5,964
  6,451
  6,957
  7,484
  8,031
  8,600
  9,192
  9,809
  10,451
  11,120
  11,817
  12,545
  13,304
  14,097
  14,924
  15,789
  16,694
  17,639
Total liabilities, $m
  2,211
  2,497
  2,800
  3,119
  3,456
  3,808
  4,176
  4,561
  4,962
  5,379
  5,813
  6,264
  6,733
  7,220
  7,727
  8,253
  8,800
  9,369
  9,962
  10,578
  11,220
  11,889
  12,587
  13,314
  14,073
  14,866
  15,694
  16,559
  17,463
  18,409
Total equity, $m
  2,168
  2,448
  2,744
  3,058
  3,387
  3,732
  4,094
  4,471
  4,863
  5,272
  5,698
  6,140
  6,600
  7,077
  7,574
  8,090
  8,626
  9,184
  9,764
  10,369
  10,998
  11,654
  12,337
  13,051
  13,795
  14,572
  15,383
  16,231
  17,117
  18,044
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,379
  4,945
  5,544
  6,177
  6,843
  7,540
  8,270
  9,032
  9,825
  10,651
  11,511
  12,404
  13,333
  14,297
  15,301
  16,343
  17,426
  18,553
  19,726
  20,947
  22,218
  23,543
  24,924
  26,365
  27,868
  29,438
  31,077
  32,790
  34,580
  36,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  374
  493
  620
  754
  896
  1,045
  1,201
  1,364
  1,534
  1,712
  1,903
  2,096
  2,297
  2,505
  2,723
  2,949
  3,185
  3,430
  3,686
  3,953
  4,231
  4,522
  4,825
  5,142
  5,473
  5,820
  6,182
  6,561
  6,959
  7,374
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  196
  220
  246
  273
  301
  331
  362
  395
  429
  465
  493
  532
  571
  613
  656
  700
  747
  795
  845
  898
  952
  1,009
  1,068
  1,130
  1,194
  1,261
  1,332
  1,405
  1,482
  1,562
Funds from operations, $m
  570
  713
  866
  1,027
  1,197
  1,376
  1,563
  1,759
  1,964
  2,177
  2,396
  2,627
  2,868
  3,118
  3,378
  3,649
  3,932
  4,225
  4,532
  4,851
  5,183
  5,531
  5,893
  6,272
  6,668
  7,081
  7,514
  7,967
  8,440
  8,937
Change in working capital, $m
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
Cash from operations, $m
  638
  786
  943
  1,108
  1,283
  1,465
  1,657
  1,857
  2,065
  2,282
  2,506
  2,742
  2,987
  3,242
  3,507
  3,783
  4,070
  4,370
  4,682
  5,007
  5,346
  5,700
  6,070
  6,456
  6,860
  7,282
  7,724
  8,186
  8,670
  9,176
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -165
  -188
  -212
  -238
  -265
  -293
  -323
  -354
  -387
  -421
  -456
  -493
  -532
  -571
  -613
  -656
  -700
  -747
  -795
  -845
  -898
  -952
  -1,009
  -1,068
  -1,130
  -1,194
  -1,261
  -1,332
  -1,405
  -1,482
New CAPEX, $m
  -353
  -376
  -398
  -420
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -506
  -527
  -549
  -571
  -593
  -617
  -641
  -666
  -692
  -720
  -749
  -779
  -811
  -845
  -880
  -917
  -957
  -999
  -1,042
  -1,089
  -1,138
  -1,189
  -1,244
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -518
  -564
  -610
  -658
  -707
  -756
  -808
  -860
  -914
  -970
  -1,027
  -1,086
  -1,149
  -1,212
  -1,279
  -1,348
  -1,420
  -1,496
  -1,574
  -1,656
  -1,743
  -1,832
  -1,926
  -2,025
  -2,129
  -2,236
  -2,350
  -2,470
  -2,594
  -2,726
Free cash flow, $m
  120
  223
  333
  450
  576
  709
  849
  996
  1,151
  1,313
  1,479
  1,655
  1,839
  2,029
  2,228
  2,435
  2,650
  2,874
  3,108
  3,351
  3,604
  3,868
  4,144
  4,431
  4,732
  5,046
  5,374
  5,717
  6,075
  6,451
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  267
  286
  303
  320
  336
  352
  368
  385
  401
  417
  434
  451
  469
  487
  506
  526
  547
  569
  592
  616
  642
  669
  697
  728
  759
  793
  828
  865
  904
  946
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  267
  286
  303
  320
  336
  352
  368
  385
  401
  417
  434
  451
  469
  487
  506
  526
  547
  569
  592
  616
  642
  669
  697
  728
  759
  793
  828
  865
  904
  946
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  387
  508
  635
  770
  912
  1,061
  1,218
  1,381
  1,552
  1,730
  1,913
  2,106
  2,307
  2,517
  2,735
  2,961
  3,198
  3,444
  3,700
  3,967
  4,246
  4,537
  4,841
  5,159
  5,491
  5,838
  6,201
  6,582
  6,980
  7,396
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -262
  -280
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -442
  -460
  -478
  -496
  -516
  -536
  -558
  -580
  -604
  -629
  -656
  -684
  -713
  -744
  -777
  -811
  -848
  -886
  -927
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  126
  228
  339
  457
  583
  716
  856
  1,004
  1,159
  1,321
  1,488
  1,664
  1,848
  2,039
  2,238
  2,445
  2,661
  2,886
  3,120
  3,363
  3,617
  3,882
  4,158
  4,446
  4,747
  5,061
  5,390
  5,734
  6,093
  6,470
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  120
  209
  295
  376
  452
  519
  579
  628
  666
  692
  707
  710
  703
  685
  657
  621
  579
  531
  480
  427
  374
  322
  273
  226
  185
  148
  116
  89
  67
  49
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Copa Holdings, S.A. is a provider of airline passenger and cargo service through its principal operating subsidiaries, Compania Panamena de Aviacion, S. A. (Copa Airlines) and AeroRepublica, S. A. (Copa Colombia). The Company operates through air transportation segment. Copa Airlines operates from its position located in the Republic of Panama. Copa Airlines provides international air transportation for passengers, cargo and mail, operating from its Panama City hub in the Republic of Panama. Copa Colombia provides service within Colombia and international flights from various cities in Colombia to Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala and Costa Rica. Copa Colombia provides domestic and international air transportation for passengers, cargo and mail with a point-to-point route network. Its subsidiary, Oval Financial Leasing, Ltd., controls the special purpose entities that have a beneficial interest in the majority of its fleet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 52.2%
Total Debt to Equity 64.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 19.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 25.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Operating Margin 12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 10.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio 25.7%

CPA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2528 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Copa Holdings, S.A.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Copa Holdings, S.A.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CPA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Copa Holdings, S.A., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Copa Holdings, S.A..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $932 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Copa Holdings, S.A..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Copa Holdings, S.A.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPA are equal to 101.1%.

Life of production assets of 15.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Copa Holdings, S.A. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPA is equal to -19.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1905.612 million for Copa Holdings, S.A. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.141 million for Copa Holdings, S.A. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Copa Holdings, S.A. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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