Intrinsic value of Chesapeake Utilities - CPK

Previous Close

$82.45

  Intrinsic Value

$7.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$82.45

 
Intrinsic value

$7.01

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.30
  26.87
  24.68
  22.71
  20.94
  19.35
  17.91
  16.62
  15.46
  14.41
  13.47
  12.63
  11.86
  11.18
  10.56
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.65
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  799
  1,013
  1,263
  1,550
  1,875
  2,237
  2,638
  3,077
  3,553
  4,065
  4,612
  5,195
  5,811
  6,460
  7,142
  7,857
  8,603
  9,382
  10,194
  11,038
  11,916
  12,829
  13,777
  14,762
  15,787
  16,851
  17,959
  19,110
  20,309
  21,557
Variable operating expenses, $m
  664
  841
  1,048
  1,286
  1,554
  1,855
  2,186
  2,549
  2,943
  3,367
  3,817
  4,299
  4,809
  5,347
  5,911
  6,503
  7,121
  7,765
  8,437
  9,136
  9,862
  10,618
  11,403
  12,218
  13,066
  13,947
  14,864
  15,817
  16,809
  17,842
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  664
  841
  1,048
  1,286
  1,554
  1,855
  2,186
  2,549
  2,943
  3,367
  3,817
  4,299
  4,809
  5,347
  5,911
  6,503
  7,121
  7,765
  8,437
  9,136
  9,862
  10,618
  11,403
  12,218
  13,066
  13,947
  14,864
  15,817
  16,809
  17,842
Operating income, $m
  135
  172
  215
  264
  320
  383
  452
  528
  610
  698
  795
  895
  1,001
  1,113
  1,231
  1,354
  1,483
  1,617
  1,757
  1,902
  2,054
  2,211
  2,374
  2,544
  2,721
  2,904
  3,095
  3,293
  3,500
  3,715
EBITDA, $m
  195
  247
  308
  378
  457
  546
  644
  751
  867
  992
  1,125
  1,267
  1,418
  1,576
  1,743
  1,917
  2,099
  2,289
  2,487
  2,693
  2,907
  3,130
  3,362
  3,602
  3,852
  4,112
  4,382
  4,663
  4,955
  5,260
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  25
  39
  57
  77
  101
  127
  157
  189
  225
  264
  305
  350
  397
  447
  500
  556
  614
  675
  738
  804
  873
  944
  1,018
  1,095
  1,176
  1,259
  1,346
  1,436
  1,529
  1,627
Earnings before tax, $m
  110
  132
  158
  187
  220
  256
  295
  338
  385
  434
  490
  545
  604
  666
  731
  798
  869
  942
  1,019
  1,098
  1,181
  1,267
  1,356
  1,449
  1,545
  1,645
  1,749
  1,858
  1,971
  2,088
Tax expense, $m
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  69
  80
  91
  104
  117
  132
  147
  163
  180
  197
  216
  235
  254
  275
  297
  319
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  472
  502
  532
  564
Net income, $m
  80
  97
  115
  137
  160
  187
  216
  247
  281
  317
  357
  398
  441
  486
  533
  583
  634
  688
  744
  802
  862
  925
  990
  1,058
  1,128
  1,201
  1,277
  1,356
  1,438
  1,524

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,832
  2,324
  2,897
  3,555
  4,300
  5,132
  6,051
  7,057
  8,148
  9,322
  10,578
  11,914
  13,327
  14,817
  16,382
  18,020
  19,733
  21,519
  23,380
  25,316
  27,330
  29,423
  31,598
  33,859
  36,208
  38,650
  41,189
  43,831
  46,580
  49,442
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,832
  2,324
  2,897
  3,555
  4,300
  5,132
  6,051
  7,057
  8,148
  9,322
  10,578
  11,914
  13,327
  14,817
  16,382
  18,020
  19,733
  21,519
  23,380
  25,316
  27,330
  29,423
  31,598
  33,859
  36,208
  38,650
  41,189
  43,831
  46,580
  49,442
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
Average production assets, $m
  1,379
  1,750
  2,181
  2,677
  3,238
  3,864
  4,556
  5,314
  6,135
  7,020
  7,965
  8,971
  10,035
  11,157
  12,335
  13,569
  14,858
  16,203
  17,604
  19,062
  20,579
  22,155
  23,793
  25,495
  27,264
  29,102
  31,015
  33,004
  35,073
  37,229
Working capital, $m
  25
  31
  39
  48
  58
  69
  82
  95
  110
  126
  143
  161
  180
  200
  221
  244
  267
  291
  316
  342
  369
  398
  427
  458
  489
  522
  557
  592
  630
  668
Total debt, $m
  730
  1,053
  1,430
  1,862
  2,352
  2,898
  3,502
  4,163
  4,880
  5,652
  6,477
  7,354
  8,283
  9,261
  10,289
  11,366
  12,491
  13,665
  14,887
  16,159
  17,482
  18,858
  20,287
  21,772
  23,315
  24,920
  26,588
  28,324
  30,130
  32,010
Total liabilities, $m
  1,203
  1,527
  1,903
  2,336
  2,825
  3,372
  3,976
  4,636
  5,353
  6,125
  6,950
  7,828
  8,756
  9,735
  10,763
  11,839
  12,964
  14,138
  15,361
  16,633
  17,956
  19,331
  20,760
  22,245
  23,789
  25,393
  27,061
  28,797
  30,603
  32,483
Total equity, $m
  628
  797
  994
  1,219
  1,475
  1,760
  2,076
  2,421
  2,795
  3,198
  3,628
  4,087
  4,571
  5,082
  5,619
  6,181
  6,768
  7,381
  8,019
  8,683
  9,374
  10,092
  10,838
  11,614
  12,419
  13,257
  14,128
  15,034
  15,977
  16,959
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,831
  2,324
  2,897
  3,555
  4,300
  5,132
  6,052
  7,057
  8,148
  9,323
  10,578
  11,915
  13,327
  14,817
  16,382
  18,020
  19,732
  21,519
  23,380
  25,316
  27,330
  29,423
  31,598
  33,859
  36,208
  38,650
  41,189
  43,831
  46,580
  49,442
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.160
  1.320
  1.440
  1.530
  1.590
  1.650
  1.690
  1.720
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  80
  97
  115
  137
  160
  187
  216
  247
  281
  317
  357
  398
  441
  486
  533
  583
  634
  688
  744
  802
  862
  925
  990
  1,058
  1,128
  1,201
  1,277
  1,356
  1,438
  1,524
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  75
  93
  114
  137
  163
  192
  223
  257
  294
  331
  372
  416
  463
  512
  563
  617
  672
  730
  791
  854
  919
  987
  1,058
  1,131
  1,208
  1,287
  1,369
  1,455
  1,545
Funds from operations, $m
  140
  172
  209
  250
  298
  350
  407
  470
  538
  611
  688
  770
  858
  949
  1,045
  1,146
  1,251
  1,360
  1,474
  1,593
  1,716
  1,844
  1,977
  2,115
  2,259
  2,409
  2,564
  2,726
  2,894
  3,069
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  165
  201
  242
  287
  339
  395
  457
  523
  595
  671
  752
  838
  929
  1,024
  1,124
  1,228
  1,336
  1,449
  1,567
  1,689
  1,816
  1,948
  2,085
  2,227
  2,376
  2,530
  2,690
  2,857
  3,030
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -57
  -73
  -91
  -111
  -134
  -160
  -189
  -220
  -255
  -291
  -331
  -372
  -416
  -463
  -512
  -563
  -617
  -672
  -730
  -791
  -854
  -919
  -987
  -1,058
  -1,131
  -1,208
  -1,287
  -1,369
  -1,455
New CAPEX, $m
  -312
  -371
  -432
  -496
  -561
  -626
  -692
  -757
  -822
  -884
  -946
  -1,006
  -1,064
  -1,122
  -1,178
  -1,234
  -1,289
  -1,345
  -1,401
  -1,458
  -1,516
  -1,576
  -1,638
  -1,702
  -1,769
  -1,839
  -1,912
  -1,989
  -2,070
  -2,155
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -356
  -428
  -505
  -587
  -672
  -760
  -852
  -946
  -1,042
  -1,139
  -1,237
  -1,337
  -1,436
  -1,538
  -1,641
  -1,746
  -1,852
  -1,962
  -2,073
  -2,188
  -2,307
  -2,430
  -2,557
  -2,689
  -2,827
  -2,970
  -3,120
  -3,276
  -3,439
  -3,610
Free cash flow, $m
  -221
  -262
  -304
  -344
  -384
  -422
  -458
  -490
  -519
  -544
  -566
  -584
  -598
  -609
  -617
  -622
  -625
  -625
  -624
  -622
  -618
  -614
  -609
  -604
  -599
  -595
  -590
  -586
  -583
  -580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  272
  323
  377
  432
  489
  547
  604
  661
  717
  772
  825
  877
  929
  979
  1,028
  1,077
  1,125
  1,174
  1,223
  1,272
  1,323
  1,375
  1,429
  1,485
  1,543
  1,604
  1,668
  1,735
  1,806
  1,880
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  61
  72
  81
  89
  95
  99
  100
  98
  93
  86
  73
  60
  44
  25
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  333
  395
  458
  521
  584
  646
  704
  759
  810
  858
  898
  937
  973
  1,004
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,174
  1,223
  1,272
  1,323
  1,375
  1,429
  1,485
  1,543
  1,604
  1,668
  1,735
  1,806
  1,880
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  112
  133
  155
  177
  200
  223
  246
  269
  292
  314
  333
  354
  374
  394
  414
  455
  500
  548
  598
  650
  705
  761
  820
  881
  944
  1,010
  1,078
  1,149
  1,223
  1,300
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -142
  -169
  -197
  -226
  -255
  -285
  -315
  -345
  -374
  -403
  -431
  -458
  -485
  -511
  -537
  -562
  -587
  -613
  -638
  -664
  -691
  -718
  -746
  -775
  -806
  -838
  -871
  -906
  -943
  -982
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -107
  -87
  -65
  -40
  -14
  14
  43
  74
  105
  138
  172
  207
  243
  280
  319
Discount rate, %
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -4
  -2
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.6
  91.9
  88.6
  85.8
  83.5
  81.5
  79.9
  78.6
  77.5
  76.6
  76.0
  75.6
  75.3
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1
  75.1

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (Chesapeake) is an energy company. The Company operates through two segments: Regulated Energy and Unregulated Energy. The Company provides natural gas distribution and transmission; natural gas supply, gathering, processing and marketing; electric distribution and generation; propane distribution; propane and crude oil wholesale marketing; steam generation, and other energy-related services. The Regulated Energy segment includes the Company's natural gas distribution, natural gas transmission and electric distribution operations. The Unregulated Energy segment includes its propane distribution, propane and crude oil wholesale marketing, natural gas marketing and unregulated natural gas supply, gathering and processing, electricity and steam generation and other unregulated energy-related services to customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chesapeake Utilities (CPK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.9
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.7%
Total Debt to Equity 80.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 37.8%

CPK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $617.583 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chesapeake Utilities. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Chesapeake Utilities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for CPK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chesapeake Utilities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chesapeake Utilities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Chesapeake Utilities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chesapeake Utilities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPK are equal to 172.7%.

Life of production assets of 24.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chesapeake Utilities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPK is equal to 3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $486.294 million for Chesapeake Utilities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.379 million for Chesapeake Utilities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chesapeake Utilities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chesapeake Utilities: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-10-18 08:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stay Safe as Trade War Escalates: 5 Top Defensive Stocks   [Jul-06-18 12:30PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities beats 4Q profit forecasts   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-09-17 06:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities misses 2Q profit forecasts   [01:55AM  Associated Press]

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