Intrinsic value of Cray - CRAY

Previous Close

$19.30

  Intrinsic Value

$7.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

  Value-price divergence*

-45%

Previous close

$19.30

 
Intrinsic value

$7.48

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-45%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  630
  643
  657
  674
  693
  714
  737
  762
  790
  819
  850
  884
  920
  958
  999
  1,042
  1,087
  1,136
  1,187
  1,241
  1,298
  1,358
  1,421
  1,488
  1,559
  1,633
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
  2,067
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  426
  436
  447
  459
  473
  489
  505
  523
  543
  563
  584
  608
  633
  660
  688
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  897
  939
  983
  1,030
  1,079
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
  1,366
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  316
  324
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  386
  395
  405
  415
  426
  436
Total operating expenses, $m
  621
  639
  655
  671
  689
  708
  730
  752
  776
  803
  829
  857
  888
  920
  954
  989
  1,027
  1,066
  1,108
  1,153
  1,199
  1,246
  1,297
  1,350
  1,406
  1,465
  1,526
  1,590
  1,657
  1,728
  1,802
Operating income, $m
  9
  3
  3
  3
  4
  6
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  27
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  88
  99
  111
  124
  138
  153
  168
  185
  203
  222
  243
  265
EBITDA, $m
  24
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  120
  133
  147
  162
  178
  196
  214
  234
  255
  278
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  25
  30
  35
  41
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  129
  143
  158
  175
  192
  210
  230
  251
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
Net income, $m
  11
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  140
  153
  168
  183

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  715
  497
  508
  521
  536
  552
  570
  589
  610
  633
  657
  683
  711
  740
  772
  805
  840
  878
  917
  959
  1,003
  1,049
  1,098
  1,150
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  487
  497
  508
  521
  536
  552
  570
  589
  610
  633
  657
  683
  711
  740
  772
  805
  840
  878
  917
  959
  1,003
  1,049
  1,098
  1,150
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.294
  1.294
  1.293
  1.294
  1.293
  1.293
  1.293
  1.294
  1.295
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.295
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.295
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
  1.294
Average production assets, $m
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Working capital, $m
  373
  148
  151
  155
  159
  164
  170
  175
  182
  188
  196
  203
  212
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  475
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  8
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  152
  168
  184
  201
  219
  238
  259
  280
  302
  326
  350
  377
  404
  433
Total liabilities, $m
  189
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  567
  594
  623
Total equity, $m
  525
  303
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  513
  535
  559
  585
  612
  640
  670
  702
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
  929
  974
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  714
  497
  508
  521
  536
  552
  570
  589
  610
  633
  657
  683
  711
  741
  772
  805
  841
  877
  917
  959
  1,003
  1,049
  1,098
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,323
  1,385
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  140
  153
  168
  183
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  -142
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  32
  36
  42
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  126
  138
  151
  165
  180
  196
Change in working capital, $m
  -90
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  -52
  5
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  145
  159
  174
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  9
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  144
  159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  3
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  7
  9
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  12
  12
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -44
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  131
  144
  157
  172
  187
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  230
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  117
  129
  142
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  220
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.2
  98.2
  97.0
  95.7
  94.5
  93.4
  92.5
  91.7
  91.2
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1

Cray Inc. is engaged in designing, developing, manufacturing, marketing and servicing the high performance computing (HPC) market, primarily categories of systems known as supercomputers. The Company's segments include Supercomputing, Storage and Data Management, Maintenance and Support, and Engineering Services and Other. The Supercomputing segment includes a suite of supercomputer systems, which are used by engineering centers in universities, government laboratories, and commercial institutions. The Storage and Data Management segment includes Cray Data Warp and Sonexion, as well as other third-party storage products and their ongoing maintenance and system analysts. The Maintenance and Support segment provides ongoing maintenance of Cray supercomputers, big data storage and analytics systems, as well as system analysts. The Engineering Services and Other segment includes the Company's analytics business and Custom Engineering.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cray (CRAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.5
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 2.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
EBITDA Margin 4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate -10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -165%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $630 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cray. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cray. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cray, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cray.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $208 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cray.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cray. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRAY are equal to 3.1%.

Life of production assets of 2.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cray operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRAY is equal to 23%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $525 million for Cray - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.814 million for Cray is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cray at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 8 Ways To Play The AI Boom   [Sep-26-17 09:24AM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cray, Inc. : August 17, 2017   [Aug-17-17 03:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cray reports 2Q loss   [Jul-28-17 08:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cray Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-27-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cray, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CRAY) : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] U.S. Invests $258 Million in Supercomputing Race With China   [Jun-16-17 12:09AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] U.S. Invests $258 Million in Supercomputing Race With China   [Jun-15-17 02:00PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Cray shows off its new digs at Mall of America office tower (slideshow)   [Jun-06-17 02:11PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cray to Present at Stifel 2017 Technology Conference   [May-30-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cray, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cray, Inc. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cray reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cray, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cray, Inc. : February 14, 2017   [Feb-14-17 03:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cray, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Feb-10-17 04:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cray tops Street 4Q forecasts   [06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cray to Present at 2017 Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-03-17 04:36PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Cray Inc. (CRAY) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 07:54AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Cray: After Terrible '16, It's Needham's Top Idea for 2017   [Dec-12-16 04:38PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Cray Wins Four HPCwire Awards   [Nov-16-16 03:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CORRECTING and REPLACING -- Cray Inc.   [Nov-14-16 12:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cray Launches Next-Generation Supercomputer   [03:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of CRAY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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