Intrinsic value of Care.com - CRCM

Previous Close

$19.07

  Intrinsic Value

$62.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+228%

Previous close

$19.07

 
Intrinsic value

$62.48

 
Up/down potential

+228%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRCM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.55
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  162
  189
  218
  249
  282
  318
  355
  394
  436
  479
  525
  572
  621
  672
  726
  781
  838
  898
  960
  1,025
  1,092
  1,162
  1,235
  1,310
  1,389
  1,472
  1,557
  1,647
  1,740
  1,838
  1,939
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  48
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  229
  244
  259
  276
  292
  310
  328
  348
  368
  388
  410
  433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
Total operating expenses, $m
  160
  172
  181
  191
  203
  214
  225
  238
  250
  264
  278
  287
  302
  317
  333
  349
  367
  384
  403
  422
  442
  462
  484
  506
  529
  552
  578
  604
  630
  658
  687
Operating income, $m
  2
  17
  36
  57
  80
  104
  130
  157
  185
  215
  247
  285
  320
  355
  393
  431
  472
  514
  557
  603
  650
  699
  751
  804
  860
  919
  980
  1,043
  1,110
  1,180
  1,253
EBITDA, $m
  6
  23
  43
  64
  86
  111
  136
  164
  192
  223
  254
  287
  322
  357
  395
  434
  474
  516
  560
  606
  653
  703
  754
  808
  864
  923
  984
  1,048
  1,115
  1,185
  1,258
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  17
  36
  57
  79
  103
  128
  155
  183
  213
  244
  282
  316
  351
  388
  427
  466
  508
  551
  596
  643
  691
  742
  795
  850
  908
  968
  1,031
  1,097
  1,166
  1,238
Tax expense, $m
  2
  5
  10
  15
  21
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  76
  85
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  187
  200
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
Net income, $m
  7
  12
  26
  41
  58
  75
  94
  113
  134
  155
  178
  206
  231
  257
  283
  311
  340
  371
  402
  435
  469
  505
  542
  580
  621
  663
  707
  753
  801
  851
  904

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  155
  92
  106
  121
  138
  155
  173
  192
  213
  234
  256
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  532
  567
  602
  639
  677
  717
  759
  803
  848
  896
  946
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  79
  92
  106
  121
  138
  155
  173
  192
  213
  234
  256
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  532
  567
  602
  639
  677
  717
  759
  803
  848
  896
  946
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.051
  2.054
  2.057
  2.058
  2.043
  2.052
  2.052
  2.052
  2.047
  2.047
  2.051
  2.050
  2.050
  2.049
  2.051
  2.050
  2.049
  2.050
  2.051
  2.050
  2.053
  2.049
  2.051
  2.050
  2.052
  2.053
  2.051
  2.051
  2.052
  2.051
  2.050
Average production assets, $m
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
Working capital, $m
  57
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  14
  21
  30
  38
  48
  57
  68
  78
  89
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  229
  247
  265
  283
  303
  323
  344
  366
  389
  413
  438
Total liabilities, $m
  41
  47
  54
  61
  70
  78
  88
  97
  108
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  269
  287
  305
  323
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
Total equity, $m
  115
  45
  52
  60
  68
  76
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  162
  175
  188
  202
  216
  231
  247
  263
  280
  297
  316
  335
  354
  375
  397
  419
  443
  467
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  156
  92
  106
  121
  138
  154
  174
  192
  213
  233
  255
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  532
  567
  602
  639
  678
  717
  759
  803
  848
  896
  945
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.140
  0.260
  0.360
  0.440
  0.500
  0.560
  0.600
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494
  0.494

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  12
  26
  41
  58
  75
  94
  113
  134
  155
  178
  206
  231
  257
  283
  311
  340
  371
  402
  435
  469
  505
  542
  580
  621
  663
  707
  753
  801
  851
  904
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  19
  33
  48
  64
  82
  101
  120
  141
  163
  186
  208
  233
  259
  286
  314
  343
  373
  405
  438
  472
  508
  545
  584
  625
  667
  712
  758
  806
  857
  910
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  22
  36
  52
  68
  86
  105
  125
  146
  168
  191
  213
  238
  265
  292
  320
  350
  380
  412
  446
  480
  516
  554
  593
  634
  677
  722
  768
  817
  868
  922
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  20
  34
  49
  66
  83
  102
  122
  143
  164
  187
  209
  234
  260
  287
  315
  345
  375
  407
  440
  474
  510
  547
  586
  626
  669
  713
  759
  808
  858
  911
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  27
  41
  57
  74
  92
  111
  132
  153
  175
  198
  221
  246
  273
  300
  329
  359
  390
  422
  456
  490
  527
  565
  605
  646
  689
  734
  781
  831
  882
  936
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  96
  34
  50
  66
  84
  102
  122
  143
  165
  187
  210
  235
  261
  288
  316
  345
  375
  407
  440
  474
  510
  547
  586
  627
  669
  714
  760
  808
  859
  912
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  92
  31
  43
  54
  65
  74
  82
  89
  95
  98
  100
  100
  99
  97
  93
  88
  82
  75
  68
  60
  53
  45
  38
  32
  26
  21
  16
  13
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Care.com, Inc. is an online marketplace for finding and managing family care. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 22.8 million members, including 12.9 million families and 9.9 million caregivers, spanning 19 countries. Its consumer matching solutions allow families to search for, qualify, vet, connect with and select caregivers. It also provides caregivers with solutions to create personal profiles, describe their skills and experience, and otherwise differentiate and market themselves in a fragmented marketplace. In addition to consumer matching solutions, the Company offers its members products and services to facilitate their interaction with caregivers. It serves employers by providing access to certain of its products and services to employer-sponsored families. In addition, it serves care-related businesses, such as day care centers, nanny agencies and home care agencies, willing to market their services to its care-seeking families and recruit its caregiver members.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Care.com (CRCM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 78.9
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.4%
Return On Equity 6.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.4%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.3%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRCM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRCM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Care.com. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Care.com. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRCM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRCM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Care.com, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Care.com.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRCM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $121 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRCM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Care.com.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Care.com. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRCM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRCM are equal to 4.9%.

Life of production assets of 16.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Care.com operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRCM is equal to -11.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $115 million for Care.com - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.769 million for Care.com is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Care.com at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Care About Care.Com?   [Dec-11-17 05:53PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Care.com, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Care.com tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Care.com, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Care.com, Inc. : August 29, 2017   [Aug-29-17 06:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Care.com beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-10-17 09:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Care.com, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:CRCM) : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 01:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Care.com Joins New Job Search Feature on Google   [Jun-21-17 10:23AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Care.com, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Care.com, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Care.com Stock Is Rallying Today   [May-03-17 02:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Care.com beats Street 1Q forecasts   [06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Care.com to Participate at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-01-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Care.com, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Care.com Releases 2017 Babysitter Survey Results   [Apr-17-17 08:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for April 5th   [Apr-05-17 09:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Will Care.com (CRCM) Continue to Surge Higher?   [Mar-16-17 08:22AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Home Care Assistance Raises More Than $100 Million   [Jan-30-17 03:01AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Royce & Associates Still Likes Care.com Inc (NYSE:CRCM)   [Jan-08-17 10:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Care.com Inc (CRCM) A Good Stock for Your Portfolio?   [Dec-09-16 01:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Care.com to Participate At Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-28-16 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Care.com to Participate At Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-08-16 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Care.com reports 3Q loss   [06:16AM  AP]
Financial statements of CRCM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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