Intrinsic value of Charles River Laboratories International - CRL

Previous Close

$144.90

  Intrinsic Value

$172.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+19%

Previous close

$144.90

 
Intrinsic value

$172.45

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.70
  23.63
  21.77
  20.09
  18.58
  17.22
  16.00
  14.90
  13.91
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.26
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  2,848
  3,521
  4,288
  5,149
  6,106
  7,158
  8,303
  9,540
  10,868
  12,283
  13,783
  15,368
  17,034
  18,783
  20,611
  22,520
  24,510
  26,582
  28,736
  30,977
  33,305
  35,725
  38,239
  40,853
  43,570
  46,396
  49,336
  52,397
  55,585
  58,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,359
  2,873
  3,458
  4,115
  4,845
  5,647
  6,521
  7,465
  8,478
  9,557
  10,517
  11,726
  12,997
  14,331
  15,726
  17,183
  18,701
  20,282
  21,926
  23,635
  25,412
  27,258
  29,177
  31,171
  33,244
  35,400
  37,644
  39,979
  42,411
  44,945
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,359
  2,873
  3,458
  4,115
  4,845
  5,647
  6,521
  7,465
  8,478
  9,557
  10,517
  11,726
  12,997
  14,331
  15,726
  17,183
  18,701
  20,282
  21,926
  23,635
  25,412
  27,258
  29,177
  31,171
  33,244
  35,400
  37,644
  39,979
  42,411
  44,945
Operating income, $m
  489
  649
  830
  1,035
  1,261
  1,511
  1,782
  2,075
  2,390
  2,725
  3,267
  3,642
  4,037
  4,451
  4,885
  5,337
  5,809
  6,300
  6,810
  7,341
  7,893
  8,467
  9,063
  9,682
  10,326
  10,996
  11,692
  12,418
  13,173
  13,960
EBITDA, $m
  813
  1,005
  1,224
  1,470
  1,743
  2,044
  2,371
  2,724
  3,103
  3,507
  3,935
  4,387
  4,863
  5,362
  5,884
  6,429
  6,998
  7,589
  8,204
  8,844
  9,509
  10,199
  10,917
  11,663
  12,439
  13,246
  14,085
  14,959
  15,869
  16,817
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  90
  125
  166
  212
  264
  322
  386
  455
  530
  610
  695
  786
  882
  982
  1,088
  1,198
  1,314
  1,434
  1,559
  1,689
  1,825
  1,966
  2,112
  2,264
  2,422
  2,586
  2,757
  2,934
  3,119
  3,312
Earnings before tax, $m
  399
  524
  665
  822
  997
  1,189
  1,396
  1,620
  1,860
  2,115
  2,571
  2,856
  3,155
  3,469
  3,797
  4,139
  4,495
  4,866
  5,251
  5,652
  6,068
  6,501
  6,951
  7,418
  7,904
  8,410
  8,936
  9,484
  10,054
  10,648
Tax expense, $m
  108
  141
  179
  222
  269
  321
  377
  438
  502
  571
  694
  771
  852
  937
  1,025
  1,117
  1,214
  1,314
  1,418
  1,526
  1,638
  1,755
  1,877
  2,003
  2,134
  2,271
  2,413
  2,561
  2,715
  2,875
Net income, $m
  291
  382
  485
  600
  728
  868
  1,019
  1,183
  1,358
  1,544
  1,877
  2,085
  2,303
  2,532
  2,772
  3,021
  3,281
  3,552
  3,833
  4,126
  4,430
  4,746
  5,074
  5,415
  5,770
  6,139
  6,523
  6,923
  7,339
  7,773

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,844
  5,989
  7,292
  8,757
  10,385
  12,173
  14,121
  16,225
  18,482
  20,889
  23,441
  26,136
  28,970
  31,943
  35,053
  38,299
  41,683
  45,207
  48,872
  52,682
  56,642
  60,757
  65,033
  69,478
  74,099
  78,905
  83,905
  89,111
  94,532
  100,180
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,844
  5,989
  7,292
  8,757
  10,385
  12,173
  14,121
  16,225
  18,482
  20,889
  23,441
  26,136
  28,970
  31,943
  35,053
  38,299
  41,683
  45,207
  48,872
  52,682
  56,642
  60,757
  65,033
  69,478
  74,099
  78,905
  83,905
  89,111
  94,532
  100,180
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
Average production assets, $m
  2,031
  2,511
  3,057
  3,672
  4,354
  5,104
  5,920
  6,802
  7,749
  8,757
  9,827
  10,957
  12,146
  13,392
  14,696
  16,057
  17,476
  18,953
  20,489
  22,086
  23,747
  25,472
  27,265
  29,128
  31,065
  33,080
  35,177
  37,359
  39,632
  42,000
Working capital, $m
  219
  271
  330
  397
  470
  551
  639
  735
  837
  946
  1,061
  1,183
  1,312
  1,446
  1,587
  1,734
  1,887
  2,047
  2,213
  2,385
  2,565
  2,751
  2,944
  3,146
  3,355
  3,572
  3,799
  4,035
  4,280
  4,536
Total debt, $m
  2,317
  3,070
  3,928
  4,892
  5,963
  7,140
  8,421
  9,806
  11,291
  12,874
  14,553
  16,327
  18,192
  20,148
  22,194
  24,331
  26,557
  28,875
  31,287
  33,794
  36,400
  39,107
  41,921
  44,846
  47,886
  51,049
  54,339
  57,764
  61,331
  65,048
Total liabilities, $m
  3,187
  3,941
  4,798
  5,762
  6,833
  8,010
  9,292
  10,676
  12,161
  13,745
  15,424
  17,197
  19,062
  21,019
  23,065
  25,201
  27,428
  29,746
  32,157
  34,665
  37,270
  39,978
  42,792
  45,716
  48,757
  51,919
  55,210
  58,635
  62,202
  65,918
Total equity, $m
  1,657
  2,048
  2,494
  2,995
  3,552
  4,163
  4,829
  5,549
  6,321
  7,144
  8,017
  8,938
  9,908
  10,925
  11,988
  13,098
  14,256
  15,461
  16,714
  18,017
  19,371
  20,779
  22,241
  23,761
  25,342
  26,985
  28,696
  30,476
  32,330
  34,261
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,844
  5,989
  7,292
  8,757
  10,385
  12,173
  14,121
  16,225
  18,482
  20,889
  23,441
  26,135
  28,970
  31,944
  35,053
  38,299
  41,684
  45,207
  48,871
  52,682
  56,641
  60,757
  65,033
  69,477
  74,099
  78,904
  83,906
  89,111
  94,532
  100,179
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.400
  1.500
  1.570
  1.630
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.790
  1.800
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  291
  382
  485
  600
  728
  868
  1,019
  1,183
  1,358
  1,544
  1,877
  2,085
  2,303
  2,532
  2,772
  3,021
  3,281
  3,552
  3,833
  4,126
  4,430
  4,746
  5,074
  5,415
  5,770
  6,139
  6,523
  6,923
  7,339
  7,773
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  324
  357
  394
  436
  482
  533
  589
  649
  713
  782
  669
  745
  826
  911
  1,000
  1,092
  1,189
  1,289
  1,394
  1,502
  1,615
  1,733
  1,855
  1,982
  2,113
  2,250
  2,393
  2,541
  2,696
  2,857
Funds from operations, $m
  615
  739
  879
  1,036
  1,210
  1,401
  1,608
  1,832
  2,071
  2,326
  2,546
  2,830
  3,130
  3,443
  3,771
  4,114
  4,470
  4,841
  5,227
  5,628
  6,045
  6,479
  6,929
  7,397
  7,883
  8,389
  8,916
  9,464
  10,035
  10,631
Change in working capital, $m
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  236
  245
  256
Cash from operations, $m
  571
  687
  820
  970
  1,136
  1,320
  1,520
  1,736
  1,969
  2,217
  2,430
  2,708
  3,001
  3,309
  3,631
  3,967
  4,317
  4,682
  5,061
  5,456
  5,866
  6,292
  6,735
  7,196
  7,674
  8,172
  8,690
  9,229
  9,790
  10,375
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -138
  -171
  -208
  -250
  -296
  -347
  -403
  -463
  -527
  -596
  -669
  -745
  -826
  -911
  -1,000
  -1,092
  -1,189
  -1,289
  -1,394
  -1,502
  -1,615
  -1,733
  -1,855
  -1,982
  -2,113
  -2,250
  -2,393
  -2,541
  -2,696
New CAPEX, $m
  -415
  -480
  -547
  -614
  -682
  -750
  -817
  -882
  -946
  -1,009
  -1,070
  -1,130
  -1,188
  -1,246
  -1,304
  -1,361
  -1,419
  -1,477
  -1,536
  -1,597
  -1,660
  -1,725
  -1,793
  -1,863
  -1,937
  -2,015
  -2,096
  -2,182
  -2,273
  -2,368
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -525
  -618
  -718
  -822
  -932
  -1,046
  -1,164
  -1,285
  -1,409
  -1,536
  -1,666
  -1,799
  -1,933
  -2,072
  -2,215
  -2,361
  -2,511
  -2,666
  -2,825
  -2,991
  -3,162
  -3,340
  -3,526
  -3,718
  -3,919
  -4,128
  -4,346
  -4,575
  -4,814
  -5,064
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  69
  103
  147
  204
  274
  356
  451
  560
  681
  764
  910
  1,068
  1,236
  1,416
  1,606
  1,806
  2,016
  2,235
  2,465
  2,703
  2,952
  3,210
  3,477
  3,755
  4,044
  4,343
  4,653
  4,976
  5,311
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  649
  753
  858
  964
  1,071
  1,177
  1,282
  1,385
  1,485
  1,583
  1,679
  1,773
  1,865
  1,956
  2,046
  2,136
  2,227
  2,318
  2,411
  2,507
  2,606
  2,708
  2,814
  2,925
  3,041
  3,162
  3,290
  3,425
  3,567
  3,717
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  48
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  697
  762
  858
  964
  1,071
  1,177
  1,282
  1,385
  1,485
  1,583
  1,679
  1,773
  1,865
  1,956
  2,046
  2,136
  2,227
  2,318
  2,411
  2,507
  2,606
  2,708
  2,814
  2,925
  3,041
  3,162
  3,290
  3,425
  3,567
  3,717
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  742
  831
  960
  1,111
  1,275
  1,451
  1,638
  1,836
  2,045
  2,264
  2,444
  2,683
  2,933
  3,192
  3,462
  3,742
  4,033
  4,334
  4,647
  4,972
  5,309
  5,659
  6,023
  6,402
  6,796
  7,206
  7,633
  8,079
  8,543
  9,027
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -339
  -391
  -446
  -501
  -557
  -612
  -666
  -720
  -772
  -823
  -873
  -922
  -969
  -1,017
  -1,064
  -1,110
  -1,157
  -1,205
  -1,253
  -1,303
  -1,354
  -1,407
  -1,463
  -1,520
  -1,580
  -1,644
  -1,710
  -1,780
  -1,854
  -1,932
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  403
  440
  515
  610
  718
  839
  971
  1,116
  1,273
  1,441
  1,571
  1,762
  1,963
  2,176
  2,398
  2,632
  2,875
  3,129
  3,394
  3,669
  3,955
  4,252
  4,561
  4,882
  5,216
  5,562
  5,923
  6,298
  6,689
  7,096
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  377
  382
  413
  449
  480
  506
  523
  532
  531
  521
  487
  462
  430
  393
  351
  308
  265
  223
  183
  147
  116
  89
  66
  48
  34
  24
  16
  10
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.3
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2

Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. is an early-stage contract research company. The Company is engaged in laboratory animal medicine and science (research model technologies) and develop a portfolio of discovery and safety assessment services, both good laboratory practice (GLP) and non-GLP, which supports its clients from target identification through non-clinical development. The Company operates in three segments: Research Models and Services (RMS), Discovery and Safety Assessment (DSA), and Manufacturing Support (Manufacturing). The RMS segment includes Research Models and Research Model Services. The DSA segment includes Discovery Services and Safety Assessment. The Manufacturing segment includes Microbial Solutions, Avian, Biologics and Contract Manufacturing. The Company also provides a suite of products and services to support the Company's clients' manufacturing activities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Charles River Laboratories International (CRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.3
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 8.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 144.3%
Total Debt to Equity 147.6%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 19.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
EBITDA Margin 22.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Operating Margin 14.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Charles River Laboratories International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Charles River Laboratories International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for CRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Charles River Laboratories International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Charles River Laboratories International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Charles River Laboratories International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Charles River Laboratories International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRL are equal to 71.3%.

Life of production assets of 14.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Charles River Laboratories International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRL is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1317.332 million for Charles River Laboratories International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.230 million for Charles River Laboratories International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Charles River Laboratories International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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