Intrinsic value of Ceragon Networks - CRNT

Previous Close

$2.16

  Intrinsic Value

$0.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$2.16

 
Intrinsic value

$0.76

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.76
  32.90
  30.11
  27.60
  25.34
  23.31
  21.47
  19.83
  18.34
  17.01
  15.81
  14.73
  13.76
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
Revenue, $m
  294
  391
  508
  649
  813
  1,003
  1,218
  1,459
  1,727
  2,021
  2,340
  2,685
  3,054
  3,448
  3,864
  4,304
  4,767
  5,252
  5,758
  6,288
  6,839
  7,413
  8,010
  8,630
  9,275
  9,945
  10,642
  11,366
  12,118
  12,901
  13,716
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  374
  486
  620
  777
  958
  1,164
  1,395
  1,651
  1,932
  2,237
  2,567
  2,920
  3,296
  3,694
  4,115
  4,557
  5,020
  5,505
  6,011
  6,538
  7,087
  7,657
  8,251
  8,867
  9,508
  10,174
  10,866
  11,585
  12,334
  13,112
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  276
  374
  486
  620
  777
  958
  1,164
  1,395
  1,651
  1,932
  2,237
  2,567
  2,920
  3,296
  3,694
  4,115
  4,557
  5,020
  5,505
  6,011
  6,538
  7,087
  7,657
  8,251
  8,867
  9,508
  10,174
  10,866
  11,585
  12,334
  13,112
Operating income, $m
  18
  17
  22
  29
  36
  44
  54
  64
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  152
  170
  189
  210
  231
  253
  277
  301
  326
  352
  380
  408
  438
  468
  500
  533
  568
  604
EBITDA, $m
  28
  25
  33
  42
  53
  65
  79
  95
  112
  131
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  279
  309
  340
  373
  407
  443
  480
  519
  559
  601
  644
  690
  737
  785
  836
  889
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  3
  6
  10
  15
  21
  27
  34
  42
  50
  60
  70
  80
  92
  104
  117
  130
  144
  159
  174
  190
  207
  225
  243
  261
  281
  301
  322
  344
  367
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  17
  20
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  126
  136
  145
  155
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
Tax expense, $m
  2
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
Net income, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  244
  277
  360
  459
  575
  710
  862
  1,033
  1,222
  1,430
  1,656
  1,900
  2,161
  2,440
  2,735
  3,046
  3,374
  3,717
  4,075
  4,450
  4,840
  5,246
  5,669
  6,108
  6,564
  7,038
  7,531
  8,044
  8,576
  9,130
  9,707
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  277
  360
  459
  575
  710
  862
  1,033
  1,222
  1,430
  1,656
  1,900
  2,161
  2,440
  2,735
  3,046
  3,374
  3,717
  4,075
  4,450
  4,840
  5,246
  5,669
  6,108
  6,564
  7,038
  7,531
  8,044
  8,576
  9,130
  9,707
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.413
  1.412
  1.411
  1.414
  1.414
  1.413
  1.413
  1.412
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
Average production assets, $m
  31
  41
  53
  67
  85
  104
  127
  152
  180
  210
  243
  279
  318
  359
  402
  448
  496
  546
  599
  654
  711
  771
  833
  898
  965
  1,034
  1,107
  1,182
  1,260
  1,342
  1,426
Working capital, $m
  95
  101
  132
  168
  211
  260
  315
  378
  447
  523
  606
  695
  791
  893
  1,001
  1,115
  1,235
  1,360
  1,491
  1,628
  1,771
  1,920
  2,075
  2,235
  2,402
  2,576
  2,756
  2,944
  3,139
  3,341
  3,552
Total debt, $m
  17
  37
  81
  134
  196
  268
  349
  440
  542
  653
  773
  904
  1,043
  1,192
  1,349
  1,516
  1,690
  1,874
  2,065
  2,265
  2,474
  2,690
  2,916
  3,151
  3,394
  3,648
  3,911
  4,184
  4,469
  4,765
  5,073
Total liabilities, $m
  128
  148
  192
  245
  307
  379
  460
  551
  653
  764
  884
  1,015
  1,154
  1,303
  1,460
  1,627
  1,801
  1,985
  2,176
  2,376
  2,585
  2,801
  3,027
  3,262
  3,505
  3,759
  4,022
  4,295
  4,580
  4,876
  5,184
Total equity, $m
  116
  129
  168
  214
  268
  331
  402
  481
  570
  666
  772
  885
  1,007
  1,137
  1,274
  1,420
  1,572
  1,732
  1,899
  2,074
  2,255
  2,445
  2,642
  2,846
  3,059
  3,280
  3,510
  3,748
  3,997
  4,255
  4,523
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  244
  277
  360
  459
  575
  710
  862
  1,032
  1,223
  1,430
  1,656
  1,900
  2,161
  2,440
  2,734
  3,047
  3,373
  3,717
  4,075
  4,450
  4,840
  5,246
  5,669
  6,108
  6,564
  7,039
  7,532
  8,043
  8,577
  9,131
  9,707
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.147
  0.280
  0.480
  0.630
  0.730
  0.810
  0.870
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.385
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  8
  11
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  80
  90
  99
  109
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  21
  25
  30
  35
  42
  49
  58
  67
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  152
  167
  183
  199
  217
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  336
  358
  382
  406
  432
  458
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  25
  30
  36
  43
  49
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  89
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  0
  4
  9
  15
  22
  30
  38
  47
  57
  68
  80
  92
  105
  118
  132
  147
  162
  178
  194
  211
  229
  247
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -167
  -180
  -193
  -207
  -221
  -236
  -252
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -30
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -67
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -138
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -202
  -216
  -232
  -247
  -263
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -353
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -95
  -96
  -97
  -98
  -99
  -100
  -101
  -102
  -102
  -104
  -105
  -106
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -18
  37
  44
  53
  62
  72
  81
  91
  101
  111
  121
  130
  140
  149
  158
  166
  175
  183
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  19
  25
  30
  36
  41
  47
  52
  58
  62
  67
  71
  74
  78
  80
  83
  85
  86
  88
  89
  89
  90
  91
  91
  92
  92
  93
  94
  94
  95
  96
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  56
  69
  83
  98
  113
  128
  143
  159
  173
  188
  201
  214
  227
  238
  249
  260
  269
  280
  289
  297
  307
  317
  326
  336
  345
  356
  368
  378
  391
  404
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  35
  43
  51
  60
  69
  79
  88
  98
  107
  117
  126
  135
  144
  152
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  286
  298
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -105
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -269
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  23
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  22
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.9
  77.7
  69.2
  62.1
  56.1
  51.1
  46.9
  43.3
  40.3
  37.7
  35.4
  33.5
  31.8
  30.3
  29.0
  27.9
  26.9
  26.0
  25.2
  24.4
  23.8
  23.2
  22.6
  22.2
  21.7
  21.3
  20.9
  20.5
  20.2
  19.9

Ceragon Networks Ltd. offers wireless backhaul solutions. The Company's products include FibeAir IP-20 Platform, FibeAir IP-20 Assured Platform and Network Management. The Company provides its services to wireless service providers, public safety organizations, government agencies and utility companies, among others. Its solutions are deployed by over 460 service providers, as well as a range of private network owners, in over 130 countries. The Company's FibeAir IP-20 platform offers flexibility in choosing all-outdoor, split-mount and all-indoor configurations to suit any deployment scenario. The FibeAir IP-20 platform includes product categories, such as shorthaul-access and shorthaul-aggregation. The FibeAir IP-20 Assured platform includes product categories, such as shorthaul-access, shorthaul-aggregation, small cells, longhaul and enterprise access. Its NetMaster is a Network Management System (NMS), which is designed for managing large-scale wireless backhaul networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ceragon Networks (CRNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 14.7%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.6%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ceragon Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ceragon Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ceragon Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ceragon Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for Ceragon Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ceragon Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRNT are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ceragon Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRNT is equal to 25.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $116 million for Ceragon Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.938 million for Ceragon Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ceragon Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ceragon posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ceragon posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 11:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Ceragon Networks Ltd. Fell 11.7% in May   [Jun-07-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ceragon posts 1Q loss   [07:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ceragon Networks Ltd. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Ceragon Networks Ltd. Stock Fell 11% in March   [Apr-10-17 07:24PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ceragon Networks Announces Filing of Shelf Registration   [Apr-07-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Mar-02-17 01:42PM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for February 23rd   [Feb-23-17 07:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Ceragon posts 4Q profit   [07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ceragon posts 2Q profit   [07:17AM  AP]
Financial statements of CRNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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