Intrinsic value of CARBO Ceramics - CRR

Previous Close

$5.96

  Intrinsic Value

$3.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$5.96

 
Intrinsic value

$3.52

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.10
  30.29
  27.76
  25.48
  23.44
  21.59
  19.93
  18.44
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.07
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
Revenue, $m
  251
  327
  418
  525
  648
  788
  945
  1,119
  1,310
  1,518
  1,743
  1,984
  2,240
  2,512
  2,800
  3,102
  3,418
  3,749
  4,095
  4,455
  4,830
  5,220
  5,625
  6,047
  6,485
  6,940
  7,413
  7,904
  8,416
  8,948
Variable operating expenses, $m
  530
  690
  881
  1,105
  1,364
  1,658
  1,988
  2,355
  2,757
  3,195
  3,666
  4,172
  4,712
  5,284
  5,888
  6,523
  7,189
  7,885
  8,612
  9,369
  10,158
  10,978
  11,830
  12,717
  13,637
  14,594
  15,589
  16,623
  17,699
  18,818
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  541
  701
  893
  1,117
  1,376
  1,671
  2,001
  2,368
  2,770
  3,209
  3,680
  4,186
  4,727
  5,299
  5,903
  6,539
  7,205
  7,901
  8,629
  9,386
  10,175
  10,996
  11,848
  12,736
  13,656
  14,613
  15,609
  16,643
  17,720
  18,839
Operating income, $m
  -290
  -374
  -475
  -592
  -728
  -883
  -1,056
  -1,249
  -1,460
  -1,690
  -1,937
  -2,203
  -2,486
  -2,786
  -3,103
  -3,437
  -3,786
  -4,152
  -4,533
  -4,931
  -5,345
  -5,776
  -6,223
  -6,689
  -7,172
  -7,674
  -8,196
  -8,739
  -9,304
  -9,891
EBITDA, $m
  -229
  -295
  -374
  -467
  -574
  -695
  -831
  -982
  -1,148
  -1,329
  -1,524
  -1,733
  -1,956
  -2,192
  -2,441
  -2,703
  -2,977
  -3,265
  -3,564
  -3,877
  -4,202
  -4,540
  -4,892
  -5,257
  -5,637
  -6,032
  -6,442
  -6,869
  -7,312
  -7,774
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  29
  37
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  105
  120
  136
  153
  171
  189
  209
  230
  251
  274
  297
  321
  346
  373
  400
  428
  458
  488
  520
Earnings before tax, $m
  -298
  -386
  -491
  -615
  -757
  -919
  -1,102
  -1,304
  -1,526
  -1,768
  -2,027
  -2,307
  -2,606
  -2,922
  -3,256
  -3,607
  -3,976
  -4,361
  -4,763
  -5,182
  -5,619
  -6,073
  -6,545
  -7,035
  -7,545
  -8,074
  -8,625
  -9,197
  -9,792
  -10,412
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -298
  -386
  -491
  -615
  -757
  -919
  -1,102
  -1,304
  -1,526
  -1,768
  -2,027
  -2,307
  -2,606
  -2,922
  -3,256
  -3,607
  -3,976
  -4,361
  -4,763
  -5,182
  -5,619
  -6,073
  -6,545
  -7,035
  -7,545
  -8,074
  -8,625
  -9,197
  -9,792
  -10,412

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  668
  871
  1,112
  1,396
  1,723
  2,095
  2,512
  2,976
  3,484
  4,038
  4,635
  5,276
  5,958
  6,682
  7,446
  8,249
  9,091
  9,971
  10,890
  11,848
  12,845
  13,883
  14,961
  16,082
  17,246
  18,456
  19,714
  21,022
  22,382
  23,798
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  668
  871
  1,112
  1,396
  1,723
  2,095
  2,512
  2,976
  3,484
  4,038
  4,635
  5,276
  5,958
  6,682
  7,446
  8,249
  9,091
  9,971
  10,890
  11,848
  12,845
  13,883
  14,961
  16,082
  17,246
  18,456
  19,714
  21,022
  22,382
  23,798
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.376
  0.375
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
Average production assets, $m
  553
  720
  920
  1,155
  1,426
  1,734
  2,079
  2,463
  2,884
  3,342
  3,836
  4,366
  4,931
  5,530
  6,162
  6,826
  7,523
  8,252
  9,013
  9,805
  10,631
  11,489
  12,381
  13,309
  14,272
  15,274
  16,315
  17,397
  18,523
  19,694
Working capital, $m
  103
  134
  171
  215
  266
  323
  387
  459
  537
  622
  715
  813
  919
  1,030
  1,148
  1,272
  1,401
  1,537
  1,679
  1,827
  1,980
  2,140
  2,306
  2,479
  2,659
  2,845
  3,039
  3,241
  3,450
  3,669
Total debt, $m
  134
  187
  250
  325
  411
  509
  619
  741
  874
  1,020
  1,177
  1,346
  1,525
  1,715
  1,916
  2,127
  2,349
  2,580
  2,822
  3,074
  3,336
  3,609
  3,893
  4,187
  4,494
  4,812
  5,143
  5,487
  5,845
  6,217
Total liabilities, $m
  176
  229
  293
  367
  453
  551
  661
  783
  916
  1,062
  1,219
  1,388
  1,567
  1,757
  1,958
  2,169
  2,391
  2,622
  2,864
  3,116
  3,378
  3,651
  3,935
  4,229
  4,536
  4,854
  5,185
  5,529
  5,887
  6,259
Total equity, $m
  492
  642
  820
  1,029
  1,270
  1,544
  1,852
  2,193
  2,568
  2,976
  3,416
  3,888
  4,391
  4,925
  5,487
  6,079
  6,700
  7,349
  8,026
  8,732
  9,467
  10,231
  11,026
  11,852
  12,710
  13,602
  14,529
  15,493
  16,496
  17,539
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  668
  871
  1,113
  1,396
  1,723
  2,095
  2,513
  2,976
  3,484
  4,038
  4,635
  5,276
  5,958
  6,682
  7,445
  8,248
  9,091
  9,971
  10,890
  11,848
  12,845
  13,882
  14,961
  16,081
  17,246
  18,456
  19,714
  21,022
  22,383
  23,798
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -298
  -386
  -491
  -615
  -757
  -919
  -1,102
  -1,304
  -1,526
  -1,768
  -2,027
  -2,307
  -2,606
  -2,922
  -3,256
  -3,607
  -3,976
  -4,361
  -4,763
  -5,182
  -5,619
  -6,073
  -6,545
  -7,035
  -7,545
  -8,074
  -8,625
  -9,197
  -9,792
  -10,412
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  79
  100
  126
  155
  188
  225
  266
  312
  361
  412
  469
  530
  595
  663
  734
  809
  887
  969
  1,054
  1,143
  1,235
  1,331
  1,431
  1,535
  1,642
  1,754
  1,871
  1,992
  2,118
Funds from operations, $m
  -237
  -307
  -391
  -489
  -602
  -732
  -877
  -1,038
  -1,214
  -1,407
  -1,615
  -1,838
  -2,075
  -2,327
  -2,593
  -2,873
  -3,167
  -3,474
  -3,794
  -4,128
  -4,476
  -4,837
  -5,213
  -5,604
  -6,010
  -6,432
  -6,870
  -7,326
  -7,801
  -8,294
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  31
  37
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  105
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
Cash from operations, $m
  -263
  -338
  -428
  -533
  -653
  -789
  -941
  -1,109
  -1,293
  -1,492
  -1,707
  -1,937
  -2,181
  -2,439
  -2,711
  -2,997
  -3,297
  -3,609
  -3,936
  -4,276
  -4,629
  -4,997
  -5,379
  -5,777
  -6,189
  -6,618
  -7,064
  -7,528
  -8,010
  -8,512
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -59
  -77
  -99
  -124
  -153
  -186
  -224
  -265
  -310
  -359
  -412
  -469
  -530
  -595
  -663
  -734
  -809
  -887
  -969
  -1,054
  -1,143
  -1,235
  -1,331
  -1,431
  -1,535
  -1,642
  -1,754
  -1,871
  -1,992
New CAPEX, $m
  -137
  -167
  -200
  -235
  -271
  -308
  -346
  -383
  -421
  -458
  -494
  -530
  -565
  -599
  -632
  -665
  -697
  -729
  -761
  -793
  -825
  -858
  -892
  -927
  -964
  -1,002
  -1,041
  -1,082
  -1,126
  -1,171
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -226
  -277
  -334
  -395
  -461
  -532
  -607
  -686
  -768
  -853
  -942
  -1,034
  -1,129
  -1,227
  -1,328
  -1,431
  -1,538
  -1,648
  -1,762
  -1,879
  -2,001
  -2,127
  -2,258
  -2,395
  -2,537
  -2,683
  -2,836
  -2,997
  -3,163
Free cash flow, $m
  -444
  -565
  -705
  -866
  -1,048
  -1,250
  -1,473
  -1,716
  -1,979
  -2,260
  -2,561
  -2,879
  -3,215
  -3,568
  -3,938
  -4,324
  -4,727
  -5,147
  -5,584
  -6,037
  -6,509
  -6,999
  -7,507
  -8,035
  -8,584
  -9,155
  -9,748
  -10,365
  -11,007
  -11,675
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  43
  53
  64
  75
  86
  98
  110
  122
  134
  146
  157
  168
  180
  190
  201
  211
  221
  232
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  421
  535
  669
  824
  998
  1,194
  1,409
  1,645
  1,901
  2,176
  2,468
  2,779
  3,109
  3,455
  3,819
  4,199
  4,596
  5,010
  5,441
  5,888
  6,354
  6,837
  7,339
  7,861
  8,403
  8,966
  9,552
  10,161
  10,795
  11,455
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  464
  588
  733
  899
  1,084
  1,292
  1,519
  1,767
  2,035
  2,322
  2,625
  2,947
  3,289
  3,645
  4,020
  4,410
  4,817
  5,242
  5,683
  6,140
  6,616
  7,110
  7,623
  8,156
  8,709
  9,284
  9,883
  10,505
  11,153
  11,827
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  23
  27
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -421
  -535
  -669
  -824
  -998
  -1,194
  -1,409
  -1,645
  -1,901
  -2,176
  -2,468
  -2,779
  -3,109
  -3,455
  -3,819
  -4,199
  -4,596
  -5,010
  -5,441
  -5,888
  -6,354
  -6,837
  -7,339
  -7,861
  -8,403
  -8,966
  -9,552
  -10,161
  -10,795
  -11,455
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -365
  -512
  -642
  -792
  -962
  -1,152
  -1,363
  -1,594
  -1,845
  -2,115
  -2,404
  -2,711
  -3,036
  -3,378
  -3,737
  -4,113
  -4,506
  -4,915
  -5,342
  -5,786
  -6,247
  -6,726
  -7,224
  -7,741
  -8,278
  -8,836
  -9,417
  -10,021
  -10,649
  -11,303
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -345
  -456
  -535
  -613
  -688
  -756
  -814
  -860
  -891
  -906
  -905
  -888
  -855
  -809
  -752
  -685
  -614
  -539
  -464
  -392
  -324
  -263
  -208
  -161
  -122
  -90
  -65
  -45
  -31
  -20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  38.1
  14.9
  6.0
  2.5
  1.0
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

CARBO Ceramics Inc. is a technology company that provides products and services to the global oil and gas and industrial markets. The Company operates through two segments: Oilfield Technologies and Services, and Environmental Products and Services. The Company's oilfield technologies and services segment includes the manufacturing and selling of proppant products for use primarily in the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells, Fracpro software for the design of fracture treatments, and StrataGen consulting services for the optimizing of well completions. The Company's environmental products and services segment is intended to protect operators' assets, minimize environmental risks, and lower lease operating expense (LOE). The Company, through Asset Guard Products Inc. (AGPI), provides spill prevention, containment and countermeasure systems for the oil and gas industry. The Company manufactures various ceramic proppants.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CARBO Ceramics (CRR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -63.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -88.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -41.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 10.9%
Total Debt to Equity 13.1%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Return On Equity -12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -82.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
EBITDA Margin -75.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.6%
Operating Margin -122.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -127.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.1%
Net Profit Margin -77.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $188.756 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CARBO Ceramics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CARBO Ceramics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for CRR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CARBO Ceramics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CARBO Ceramics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 211.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for CARBO Ceramics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CARBO Ceramics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRR are equal to 220.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CARBO Ceramics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRR is equal to 41%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $405.765 million for CARBO Ceramics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.74 million for CARBO Ceramics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CARBO Ceramics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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