Intrinsic value of Carpenter Technology - CRS

Previous Close

$56.74

  Intrinsic Value

$4.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$56.74

 
Intrinsic value

$4.63

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,834
  1,876
  1,924
  1,978
  2,038
  2,104
  2,176
  2,254
  2,337
  2,427
  2,523
  2,625
  2,734
  2,850
  2,973
  3,103
  3,241
  3,387
  3,541
  3,704
  3,875
  4,057
  4,247
  4,448
  4,660
  4,883
  5,118
  5,365
  5,625
  5,898
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,780
  1,820
  1,866
  1,918
  1,975
  2,038
  2,106
  2,180
  2,259
  2,345
  2,404
  2,501
  2,605
  2,715
  2,832
  2,957
  3,088
  3,227
  3,374
  3,529
  3,692
  3,865
  4,047
  4,238
  4,440
  4,652
  4,876
  5,111
  5,359
  5,619
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,780
  1,820
  1,866
  1,918
  1,975
  2,038
  2,106
  2,180
  2,259
  2,345
  2,404
  2,501
  2,605
  2,715
  2,832
  2,957
  3,088
  3,227
  3,374
  3,529
  3,692
  3,865
  4,047
  4,238
  4,440
  4,652
  4,876
  5,111
  5,359
  5,619
Operating income, $m
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  266
  279
EBITDA, $m
  255
  261
  268
  275
  284
  293
  303
  314
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  493
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  712
  746
  783
  821
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  55
  55
  55
  55
  55
  55
  55
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  53
  53
  53
  53
Tax expense, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
Net income, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,934
  3,002
  3,079
  3,166
  3,262
  3,367
  3,482
  3,606
  3,739
  3,883
  4,036
  4,200
  4,375
  4,560
  4,757
  4,965
  5,186
  5,419
  5,666
  5,926
  6,201
  6,490
  6,796
  7,117
  7,456
  7,813
  8,189
  8,584
  8,999
  9,437
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,934
  3,002
  3,079
  3,166
  3,262
  3,367
  3,482
  3,606
  3,739
  3,883
  4,036
  4,200
  4,375
  4,560
  4,757
  4,965
  5,186
  5,419
  5,666
  5,926
  6,201
  6,490
  6,796
  7,117
  7,456
  7,813
  8,189
  8,584
  8,999
  9,437
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
Average production assets, $m
  1,685
  1,724
  1,768
  1,818
  1,873
  1,934
  2,000
  2,071
  2,148
  2,230
  2,318
  2,412
  2,513
  2,619
  2,732
  2,852
  2,979
  3,113
  3,254
  3,404
  3,562
  3,728
  3,903
  4,088
  4,283
  4,488
  4,703
  4,930
  5,169
  5,420
Working capital, $m
  499
  510
  523
  538
  554
  572
  592
  613
  636
  660
  686
  714
  744
  775
  809
  844
  882
  921
  963
  1,007
  1,054
  1,103
  1,155
  1,210
  1,268
  1,328
  1,392
  1,459
  1,530
  1,604
Total debt, $m
  640
  679
  724
  775
  831
  892
  959
  1,032
  1,110
  1,193
  1,283
  1,379
  1,481
  1,589
  1,704
  1,826
  1,954
  2,091
  2,235
  2,387
  2,547
  2,716
  2,895
  3,083
  3,280
  3,489
  3,708
  3,939
  4,182
  4,437
Total liabilities, $m
  1,714
  1,753
  1,798
  1,849
  1,905
  1,966
  2,033
  2,106
  2,184
  2,268
  2,357
  2,453
  2,555
  2,663
  2,778
  2,900
  3,029
  3,165
  3,309
  3,461
  3,621
  3,790
  3,969
  4,157
  4,354
  4,563
  4,782
  5,013
  5,256
  5,511
Total equity, $m
  1,221
  1,249
  1,281
  1,317
  1,357
  1,401
  1,448
  1,500
  1,556
  1,615
  1,679
  1,747
  1,820
  1,897
  1,979
  2,066
  2,157
  2,254
  2,357
  2,465
  2,580
  2,700
  2,827
  2,961
  3,102
  3,250
  3,406
  3,571
  3,744
  3,926
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,935
  3,002
  3,079
  3,166
  3,262
  3,367
  3,481
  3,606
  3,740
  3,883
  4,036
  4,200
  4,375
  4,560
  4,757
  4,966
  5,186
  5,419
  5,666
  5,926
  6,201
  6,490
  6,796
  7,118
  7,456
  7,813
  8,188
  8,584
  9,000
  9,437
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.520
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.790
  0.810
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  201
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  256
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  517
  542
Funds from operations, $m
  217
  221
  225
  230
  236
  242
  249
  256
  264
  272
  272
  281
  291
  302
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  467
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Cash from operations, $m
  207
  209
  212
  216
  220
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  246
  253
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  427
  445
  465
  485
  506
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -165
  -169
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -390
  -409
  -428
  -449
  -470
  -493
  -517
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -198
  -208
  -216
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -575
  -604
  -633
  -665
  -697
  -732
  -768
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  2
  -5
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  39
  45
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  255
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  126
  134
  143
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  41
  52
  61
  71
  80
  89
  99
  108
  118
  128
  114
  124
  135
  145
  157
  169
  181
  193
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  317
  336
  357
  377
  398
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  49
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
Cash available for distribution, $m
  28
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Discount rate, %
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  26
  23
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.8
  99.3
  98.7
  98.0
  97.2
  96.3
  95.4
  94.3
  93.2
  92.0
  91.4
  90.8
  90.0
  89.2
  88.3
  87.4
  86.4
  85.4
  84.3
  83.2
  82.1
  81.0
  79.8
  78.6
  77.4
  76.2
  75.0
  73.8
  72.6
  71.3

Carpenter Technology Corporation is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. The Company's segments include Specialty Alloys Operations (SAO) and Performance Engineered Products (PEP). Its SAO segment consists of alloy and stainless steel manufacturing operations. Its PEP segment includes the Dynamet titanium business, the Carpenter Powder Products business, the Amega West business, the Specialty Steel Supply business and the Latrobe and Mexico distribution businesses. It develops, manufactures and distributes cast/wrought and powder metal stainless steels, and special alloys, including high temperature (iron-nickel-cobalt base), stainless, corrosion resistant, controlled expansion alloys, ultra-high strength and implantable alloys, tool and die steels and other specialty metals, as well as cast/wrought titanium alloys. The Company manufactures and rents down-hole drilling tools and components used in the oil and gas industry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Carpenter Technology (CRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 56.4
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 88.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 45.9%
Total Debt to Equity 50.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 72.3%

CRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1798 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Carpenter Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Carpenter Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for CRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Carpenter Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Carpenter Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Carpenter Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Carpenter Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRS stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRS are equal to 91.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Carpenter Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRS is equal to 27.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1199 million for Carpenter Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47 million for Carpenter Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Carpenter Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Carpenter Technology Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-15-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [12:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Carpenter Technology Announces Conference Call and Webcast   [Jul-19-18 04:44PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Carpenter Technology Earnings Preview   [Apr-25-18 03:38PM  Benzinga]
▶ Carpenter Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-18-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter Technology Announces Conference Call and Webcast   [Apr-13-18 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter Technology Acquires CalRAM   [Feb-26-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter beats Street 2Q forecasts   [08:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Carpenter Technology Announces Conference Call and Webcast   [Jan-25-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-24-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kathleen Ligocki Named to Carpenter Board of Directors   [Nov-20-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ A Well-Defined Niche: Steel-Alloy Stocks Rebound In New Era   [Oct-27-17 12:38PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Carpenter beats Street 1Q forecasts   [08:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Carpenter Technology Announces Conference Call and Webcast   [Oct-18-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Carpenter Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-10-17 05:24PM  GlobeNewswire]
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