Intrinsic value of Cirrus Logic - CRUS

Previous Close

$55.40

  Intrinsic Value

$225.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+306%

  Value-price divergence*

-22%

Previous close

$55.40

 
Intrinsic value

$225.18

 
Up/down potential

+306%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-22%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRUS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.65
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  1,539
  1,907
  2,327
  2,799
  3,325
  3,903
  4,534
  5,216
  5,948
  6,730
  7,559
  8,435
  9,357
  10,324
  11,336
  12,393
  13,495
  14,643
  15,836
  17,077
  18,367
  19,708
  21,101
  22,548
  24,054
  25,619
  27,247
  28,943
  30,708
  32,547
  34,464
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,194
  1,451
  1,740
  2,061
  2,415
  2,800
  3,217
  3,665
  4,143
  4,650
  5,157
  5,720
  6,312
  6,931
  7,577
  8,250
  8,952
  9,682
  10,440
  11,229
  12,048
  12,900
  13,785
  14,705
  15,662
  16,658
  17,694
  18,773
  19,898
  21,070
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  265
  272
  279
  286
  293
  300
  308
  316
  323
  332
  340
  348
  357
  366
  375
  384
  394
  404
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  468
  480
  492
  504
  517
  530
  543
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,222
  1,459
  1,723
  2,019
  2,347
  2,708
  3,100
  3,525
  3,981
  4,466
  4,982
  5,497
  6,068
  6,669
  7,297
  7,952
  8,634
  9,346
  10,086
  10,854
  11,653
  12,483
  13,346
  14,242
  15,173
  16,142
  17,150
  18,198
  19,290
  20,428
  21,613
Operating income, $m
  317
  447
  603
  780
  978
  1,195
  1,433
  1,691
  1,968
  2,263
  2,577
  2,938
  3,288
  3,655
  4,040
  4,442
  4,860
  5,297
  5,751
  6,223
  6,714
  7,224
  7,755
  8,306
  8,880
  9,477
  10,098
  10,744
  11,417
  12,119
  12,851
EBITDA, $m
  380
  517
  682
  869
  1,078
  1,308
  1,559
  1,831
  2,124
  2,436
  2,768
  3,120
  3,489
  3,877
  4,283
  4,708
  5,150
  5,611
  6,091
  6,590
  7,108
  7,648
  8,208
  8,791
  9,396
  10,027
  10,683
  11,366
  12,077
  12,818
  13,591
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  2
  4
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  154
  165
  175
  186
Earnings before tax, $m
  315
  445
  599
  773
  968
  1,183
  1,417
  1,671
  1,944
  2,235
  2,545
  2,901
  3,245
  3,607
  3,986
  4,381
  4,794
  5,224
  5,671
  6,136
  6,620
  7,123
  7,645
  8,188
  8,753
  9,341
  9,953
  10,590
  11,253
  11,944
  12,665
Tax expense, $m
  54
  120
  162
  209
  261
  319
  383
  451
  525
  603
  687
  783
  876
  974
  1,076
  1,183
  1,294
  1,410
  1,531
  1,657
  1,787
  1,923
  2,064
  2,211
  2,363
  2,522
  2,687
  2,859
  3,038
  3,225
  3,420
Net income, $m
  261
  325
  437
  565
  707
  863
  1,034
  1,220
  1,419
  1,632
  1,858
  2,117
  2,369
  2,633
  2,910
  3,198
  3,500
  3,813
  4,140
  4,479
  4,832
  5,199
  5,581
  5,977
  6,390
  6,819
  7,265
  7,730
  8,215
  8,719
  9,246

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  451
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,413
  1,192
  1,454
  1,749
  2,078
  2,439
  2,834
  3,260
  3,718
  4,206
  4,724
  5,272
  5,848
  6,453
  7,085
  7,746
  8,435
  9,152
  9,898
  10,673
  11,480
  12,317
  13,188
  14,093
  15,034
  16,012
  17,030
  18,089
  19,192
  20,342
  21,540
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  962
  1,192
  1,454
  1,749
  2,078
  2,439
  2,834
  3,260
  3,718
  4,206
  4,724
  5,272
  5,848
  6,453
  7,085
  7,746
  8,435
  9,152
  9,898
  10,673
  11,480
  12,317
  13,188
  14,093
  15,034
  16,012
  17,030
  18,089
  19,192
  20,342
  21,540
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
Average production assets, $m
  314
  389
  475
  571
  678
  796
  925
  1,064
  1,213
  1,373
  1,542
  1,721
  1,909
  2,106
  2,313
  2,528
  2,753
  2,987
  3,231
  3,484
  3,747
  4,020
  4,305
  4,600
  4,907
  5,226
  5,558
  5,904
  6,264
  6,640
  7,031
Working capital, $m
  632
  225
  275
  330
  392
  461
  535
  615
  702
  794
  892
  995
  1,104
  1,218
  1,338
  1,462
  1,592
  1,728
  1,869
  2,015
  2,167
  2,326
  2,490
  2,661
  2,838
  3,023
  3,215
  3,415
  3,624
  3,841
  4,067
Total debt, $m
  60
  122
  193
  273
  362
  460
  567
  682
  806
  939
  1,079
  1,228
  1,384
  1,548
  1,719
  1,898
  2,085
  2,279
  2,481
  2,691
  2,910
  3,137
  3,373
  3,618
  3,873
  4,138
  4,414
  4,701
  5,000
  5,312
  5,636
Total liabilities, $m
  262
  323
  394
  474
  563
  661
  768
  883
  1,007
  1,140
  1,280
  1,429
  1,585
  1,749
  1,920
  2,099
  2,286
  2,480
  2,682
  2,892
  3,111
  3,338
  3,574
  3,819
  4,074
  4,339
  4,615
  4,902
  5,201
  5,513
  5,837
Total equity, $m
  1,152
  869
  1,060
  1,275
  1,515
  1,778
  2,066
  2,377
  2,710
  3,066
  3,444
  3,843
  4,263
  4,704
  5,165
  5,647
  6,149
  6,672
  7,215
  7,781
  8,369
  8,979
  9,614
  10,274
  10,959
  11,673
  12,415
  13,187
  13,991
  14,829
  15,703
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,414
  1,192
  1,454
  1,749
  2,078
  2,439
  2,834
  3,260
  3,717
  4,206
  4,724
  5,272
  5,848
  6,453
  7,085
  7,746
  8,435
  9,152
  9,897
  10,673
  11,480
  12,317
  13,188
  14,093
  15,033
  16,012
  17,030
  18,089
  19,192
  20,342
  21,540
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.052
  0.140
  0.180
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  261
  325
  437
  565
  707
  863
  1,034
  1,220
  1,419
  1,632
  1,858
  2,117
  2,369
  2,633
  2,910
  3,198
  3,500
  3,813
  4,140
  4,479
  4,832
  5,199
  5,581
  5,977
  6,390
  6,819
  7,265
  7,730
  8,215
  8,719
  9,246
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  70
  79
  89
  100
  113
  126
  141
  156
  173
  191
  181
  201
  222
  243
  266
  290
  314
  340
  367
  394
  423
  453
  484
  517
  550
  585
  622
  659
  699
  740
Funds from operations, $m
  345
  394
  516
  653
  807
  976
  1,160
  1,360
  1,575
  1,805
  2,049
  2,299
  2,570
  2,855
  3,153
  3,465
  3,789
  4,128
  4,480
  4,846
  5,227
  5,623
  6,034
  6,462
  6,906
  7,369
  7,851
  8,352
  8,874
  9,418
  9,986
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  43
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  103
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
Cash from operations, $m
  370
  351
  466
  598
  745
  907
  1,086
  1,280
  1,489
  1,713
  1,951
  2,195
  2,461
  2,741
  3,034
  3,340
  3,659
  3,992
  4,339
  4,700
  5,075
  5,464
  5,870
  6,291
  6,729
  7,184
  7,658
  8,152
  8,666
  9,201
  9,759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -33
  -41
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -84
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -162
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -243
  -266
  -290
  -314
  -340
  -367
  -394
  -423
  -453
  -484
  -517
  -550
  -585
  -622
  -659
  -699
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -75
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -375
  -391
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -70
  -108
  -127
  -146
  -167
  -189
  -213
  -236
  -261
  -287
  -314
  -341
  -369
  -398
  -428
  -459
  -491
  -524
  -558
  -593
  -630
  -667
  -707
  -748
  -791
  -836
  -882
  -931
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,090
Free cash flow, $m
  300
  243
  340
  451
  577
  718
  873
  1,043
  1,227
  1,425
  1,637
  1,854
  2,092
  2,342
  2,605
  2,881
  3,168
  3,469
  3,781
  4,106
  4,445
  4,797
  5,162
  5,542
  5,938
  6,349
  6,776
  7,221
  7,684
  8,167
  8,669
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -101
  62
  71
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  164
  171
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -118
  62
  71
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  164
  171
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  182
  305
  411
  531
  666
  816
  980
  1,159
  1,351
  1,558
  1,778
  2,003
  2,248
  2,506
  2,777
  3,060
  3,355
  3,663
  3,983
  4,317
  4,663
  5,024
  5,398
  5,788
  6,193
  6,614
  7,052
  7,508
  7,983
  8,478
  8,994
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -293
  -168
  -191
  -215
  -239
  -264
  -287
  -311
  -334
  -356
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -441
  -461
  -482
  -502
  -523
  -544
  -565
  -588
  -611
  -635
  -660
  -686
  -713
  -742
  -772
  -804
  -838
  -873
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  451
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  588
  220
  316
  427
  552
  693
  848
  1,018
  1,202
  1,400
  1,603
  1,828
  2,066
  2,316
  2,578
  2,853
  3,140
  3,439
  3,751
  4,076
  4,413
  4,764
  5,128
  5,507
  5,900
  6,310
  6,736
  7,179
  7,640
  8,121
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  564
  201
  275
  352
  428
  503
  573
  636
  690
  734
  761
  780
  785
  777
  757
  725
  683
  633
  578
  518
  456
  395
  336
  280
  230
  184
  145
  111
  83
  61
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cirrus Logic, Inc. is engaged in providing integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and voice signal processing applications. The Company develops analog and mixed-signal ICs for a range of customers. The Company offers two product lines: Portable Audio, and Non-Portable Audio and Other. The Company's primary facility housing engineering, sales and marketing, and administration functions is located in Austin, Texas. The Company offers products through both direct and indirect sales channels across the world. The Company's portable audio products include analog and mixed-signal components designed for mobile devices including smartphones, tablets, digital headsets, wearables, smart accessories and portable media players. Its non-portable audio and other products include analog and mixed-signal components targeting the consumer market, including smart home applications, and the automotive, energy and industrial markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cirrus Logic (CRUS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.6
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 5.2%
Total Debt to Equity 5.2%
Interest Coverage 106
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Total Capital 23.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Return On Equity 26%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Operating Margin 20.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Net Profit Margin 17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 17.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRUS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRUS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1539 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cirrus Logic. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cirrus Logic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRUS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRUS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cirrus Logic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cirrus Logic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRUS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $259 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRUS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cirrus Logic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cirrus Logic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRUS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRUS are equal to 20.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cirrus Logic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRUS is equal to 11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1152 million for Cirrus Logic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.799 million for Cirrus Logic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cirrus Logic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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Financial statements of CRUS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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