Intrinsic value of Corvel - CRVL

Previous Close

$49.90

  Intrinsic Value

$38.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-22%

Previous close

$49.90

 
Intrinsic value

$38.84

 
Up/down potential

-22%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRVL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.98
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  519
  552
  586
  621
  658
  697
  737
  779
  823
  868
  916
  966
  1,018
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
  1,459
  1,535
  1,614
  1,697
  1,784
  1,875
  1,971
  2,071
  2,176
  2,287
  2,403
  2,524
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  478
  507
  538
  570
  603
  637
  673
  711
  750
  791
  831
  876
  923
  972
  1,023
  1,077
  1,134
  1,193
  1,255
  1,320
  1,388
  1,459
  1,534
  1,612
  1,695
  1,781
  1,871
  1,966
  2,066
  2,171
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
Total operating expenses, $m
  471
  501
  530
  562
  594
  628
  663
  699
  738
  777
  819
  860
  906
  953
  1,003
  1,055
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
  1,290
  1,356
  1,425
  1,497
  1,573
  1,652
  1,736
  1,823
  1,914
  2,010
  2,111
  2,217
Operating income, $m
  48
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  97
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
EBITDA, $m
  69
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
Tax expense, $m
  19
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
Net income, $m
  29
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  235
  219
  233
  247
  261
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  364
  383
  404
  426
  449
  472
  497
  523
  551
  579
  609
  641
  674
  708
  744
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,002
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  206
  219
  233
  247
  261
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  364
  383
  404
  426
  449
  472
  497
  523
  551
  579
  609
  641
  674
  708
  744
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,002
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.519
  2.521
  2.515
  2.514
  2.521
  2.516
  2.515
  2.521
  2.517
  2.516
  2.516
  2.522
  2.520
  2.519
  2.517
  2.521
  2.521
  2.520
  2.517
  2.520
  2.521
  2.518
  2.518
  2.520
  2.520
  2.520
  2.519
  2.519
  2.519
  2.519
  2.519
Average production assets, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  39
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  19
  26
  33
  40
  48
  56
  65
  73
  83
  92
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  174
  188
  203
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  307
  327
  349
  371
Total liabilities, $m
  97
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  169
  179
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
  347
  365
  383
  403
  423
  445
  467
Total equity, $m
  139
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  240
  252
  266
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  378
  397
  418
  439
  461
  485
  509
  535
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  236
  219
  232
  247
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  345
  363
  384
  404
  425
  449
  472
  498
  523
  551
  579
  609
  641
  674
  708
  744
  783
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,002
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.100
  0.140
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  49
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  139
  146
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  224
  236
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  39
  39
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  31
  29
  27
  25
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CorVel Corporation (Corvel) is a provider of workers' compensation solutions for employers, third party administrators, insurance companies and government agencies. The Company offers its services as a bundled solution, which includes claims management, as a standalone service, or as add-on services to existing customers. The Company offers its services as a bundled solution, which includes claims management, as a standalone service, or as add-on services to existing customers. The Company's network solutions include bill review, preferred provider organization (PPO) management, professional review, provider reimbursement, pharmacy services, directed care services, medicare solutions and clearinghouse services. The Company's patient management services include claims management, case management, 24/7 nurse triage, utilization management, vocational rehabilitation, life care planning, disability management, liability claims management and auto claims management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Corvel (CRVL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.6
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 45
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 82.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Return On Total Capital 21.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Return On Equity 21.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRVL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRVL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $519 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Corvel. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Corvel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRVL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRVL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Corvel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Corvel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRVL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $22 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRVL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Corvel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Corvel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRVL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRVL are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 1.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Corvel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRVL is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $139 million for Corvel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.093 million for Corvel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Corvel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is CorVel Corporations (NASDAQ:CRVL) Financial Position?   [Dec-26-17 07:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CorVel Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CorVel Successfully Implements CareMC Edge   [Dec-04-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel posts 2Q profit   [Oct-31-17 06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Oct-20-17 06:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Launches Automated Processing and Payment Platform   [Oct-09-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CorVel Corp. : September 26, 2017   [Sep-26-17 10:47AM  Capital Cube]
▶ CorVel posts 1Q profit   [Aug-01-17 10:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Earnings Release Webcast   [Jul-26-17 11:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Releases Advanced Claims Management Workstation   [Jul-18-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CorVel Corp. : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CorVel Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CorVel posts 4Q profit   [06:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CorVel Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CorVel Announces Fiscal Earnings Release Webcast   [May-18-17 06:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Expansion of Stock Repurchase Program   [Feb-07-17 05:06PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel posts 3Q profit   [06:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Jan-17-17 05:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is CorVel Corporation (CRVL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 09:34PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is CorVel Corporation (CRVL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [09:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Oct-20-16 05:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Earnings Release Webcast   [Jul-26-16 03:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Opening Bell, June 29, 2016   [Jun-29-16 09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Fiscal Earnings Release Webcast   [May-18-16 03:33PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of CRVL
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